Crime Violent Crime Falls in the US, Homicides Drop at Record Pace, Despite MSM Narratives

[Siver!]

Homicides See Historic Decline In 2023 Despite Perceptions That Crime Is On The Rise

While many Americans believe crime is on the rise, new data shows that homicides are down this year, along with many other crime categories.

www.forbes.com

Murders are down 12.8% over last year across more than 175 cities, according to criminal justice data analyzed by firm AH Analytics, with AH Analytics co-founder and data analyst Jeff Asher recently writing on Substack that the data suggests that U.S. murders are on pace to log “one of the fastest rates of decline ever recorded” this year.

Major cities, which some commentators have in recent years portrayed as overrun by crime, have seen significant declines in homicides, including double-digit declines in New York (11.42% as of Dec. 24), Los Angeles (15.45% as of Dec. 23) and Chicago (12.7% as of Dec. 27), per the AH Analytics murder dashboard, drawing from local law enforcement data across the country.

Recently released preliminary third-quarter data from the FBI also shows that seven of eight categories of violent crimes and property crimes were down in cities of all sizes over the first three quarters of 2023—with the exception of car thefts.

While it’s difficult to pinpoint exact causes for crime trends, U.S. Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco told ABC News that she believed increased federal support to law enforcements targeting illegal guns has helped drive murders down, while other law enforcement officials across the country cited increased officer patrols.

The findings come as a recent Gallup poll shows that more than 77% of Americans believe that there is more crime than there was a year ago.

New data projects a historic decline in murder rate in 2023. Experts explain why the rate is expected to drop

What’s the 2023 murder rate in the U.S.? Is murder increasing in the U.S.? Is crime increasing in the U.S.? What was the murder rate in 2022 in the U.S.?

news.yahoo.com

It’s not just murder that’s down; Asher wrote that there’s an overall drop in criminal activity.

Looking at the Uniform Crime Report, Asher wrote, “Americans tend to think that crime is rising, but the evidence we have right now points to sizable declines this year (even if there are always outliers). The quarterly data in particular suggests 2023 featured one of the lowest rates of violent crime in the United States in more than 50 years.”

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This is good news!

Well done, guys.

Hopefully the bad old days of 2020-21 are beyond y'all for good.

Remember: don't repeat those mistakes.

Other sources:

US homicide rates drop at record pace in 2023

Despite feelings of crime increasing, data from cities across the US indicate murder rates fell at record pace this year

www.independent.co.uk

After Rise in Murders During the Pandemic, a Sharp Decline in 2023

The country is on track for a record drop in homicides, and many other categories of crime are also in decline, according to the F.B.I.

www.nytimes.com

Data from big cities suggests most violent crime fell last year. It's not the full picture, experts say.

Police crime data from 35 U.S. cities suggests homicides and gun assaults fell in 2022 as robberies and property crimes rose, a new report found.

eu.usatoday.com

 

[Scrody]

My city just recorded the most homicides ever so that doesn't apply here. My states also on its way to having the most homicides ever this year too.

 

[SakurabasEar]

It was certainly due to come down from the high, which is a good thing. Hopefully they continue to drop overall, as our country altogether has a large amount of crime

 

[chardog]

These stats are like the stock market, ever since saint floyd, the murder rates have been much higher, who knows when they will get to pre pandemic levels, quite far away.

 

[chardog]

Btw, the artical is trying to gaslight

The report also found aggravated assaults, gun assaults, drug offenses, domestic violence incidents and residential burglaries all fell while robberies, nonresidential burglaries and larcenies rose, based on data from varying numbers of cities.

Crime is shifting

• Of 30 cities with data on motor vehicle thefts, 27 have seen a rise since the beginning of the pandemic.
• Motor vehicle thefts rose 21% in 2022 – up 59% from 2019, based on data from those cities.
• Vehicle thefts more than doubled in eight of those cities from 2019 to 2022.
• Based on data from seven cities, carjackings rose by 24% from 2020 to 2022. For context, motor vehicle thefts in those cities rose 54% during that time.

Lol @ crime dropping, thief’s went from robbing homes to robbing stores, which is better than nothing

 

[Siver!]

Btw, the artical is trying to gaslight

The report also found aggravated assaults, gun assaults, drug offenses, domestic violence incidents and residential burglaries all fell while robberies, nonresidential burglaries and larcenies rose, based on data from varying numbers of cities.

Crime is shifting

• Of 30 cities with data on motor vehicle thefts, 27 have seen a rise since the beginning of the pandemic.
• Motor vehicle thefts rose 21% in 2022 – up 59% from 2019, based on data from those cities.
• Vehicle thefts more than doubled in eight of those cities from 2019 to 2022.
• Based on data from seven cities, carjackings rose by 24% from 2020 to 2022. For context, motor vehicle thefts in those cities rose 54% during that time.

Lol @ crime dropping, thief’s went from robbing homes to robbing stores, which is better than nothing

*Violent crime is dropping

None of these articles say "crime is dropping" uniformally.

These articles might be more nuanced than you're used to?

 

[chardog]

*Violent crime is dropping

None of these articles say "crime is dropping" uniformally.

These articles might be more nuanced than you're used to?

Right

This is from your own post
“The findings come as a recent Gallup poll shows that more than 77% of Americans believe that there is more crime than there was a year ago.”

Has nothing to do with “violent crime”

Followed by the misdirected post putting in “violent crime”, and even that is wrong as pointed in the actual gallop poll:

Recent changes in how the FBI measures crime have made it difficult to assess the real-world trends, and the Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey doesn’t always align with the FBI data. Meanwhile, Gallup trends indicate there has been an increase in crime victimization since 2020, according to Americans’ reports of their own experiences in the past year.

 

[Siver!]

Right

This is from your own post
“The findings come as a recent Gallup poll shows that more than 77% of Americans believe that there is more crime than there was a year ago.”

Has nothing to do with “violent crime”

Followed by the misdirected post putting in “violent crime”, and even that is wrong as pointed in the actual gallop poll:

Recent changes in how the FBI measures crime have made it difficult to assess the real-world trends, and the Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey doesn’t always align with the FBI data. Meanwhile, Gallup trends indicate there has been an increase in crime victimization since 2020, according to Americans’ reports of their own experiences in the past year.

You can find the sources of the data in the articles...

Violent crime dropped in 2023.

Generally, the right wing MSM narratives pretend the opposite is true.

 

[Natural Order]

Incredible how leftist stooges sensationalize minor reductions in murder rates (using terms like "historic" lol) instead of focusing on crime as a whole, which has increased.

Fucking idiots.

 

[ShadowRun]

It’s like gas goes 6 $ a gallon from 3.50 . Then it goes to 5.75 and is celebrated lol

 

[Natural Order]

And don't forget to tell them that almost every statistic is still higher than 2019. All this speaks to is a decline in the spike increases seen during COVID.

The idea that you're presenting property crime dropping by 6% (when it rose by 7% the year prior) as a historic drop not seen since the 60's is the most disingenuous form of reporting possible.

This is all akin to a child coming home with D first term, D- second term, and D third term. Yay!!!!

 

[lilelvis]

Incredible how leftist stooges sensationalize minor reductions in murder rates (using terms like "historic" lol) instead of focusing on crime as a whole, which has increased.

Fucking idiots.

Everybody is happy with how things are now, don’t you get it?

 

[Natural Order]

One might assume a highly uneducated and unintelligent portion of society finally woke up and realized that people will actually give over their possessions at the mere sight of a gun, rather than thinking you had to kill them to accomplish that same task.

 

[EL CORINTHIAN]

Dump this shit thread.

 

[jrams]

Crime rates show positive trends, but they are still elevated. Looking at NYC, the murder rate trend of the late 2010's would suggest the city should see ~300 murders this year but is at 373. So it is good to see it go down, but comparing it to a record spike a year before isn't helpful.

Non-murder crime stats have such varied reporting, that it isn't really worth comparing until all major cities submit their data. Some cities like NYC are very good at reporting crime data. Some cities like New Orleans don't even submit official crime data to the FBI and it gets compiled much later. Working on incomplete data during the year is just too inaccurate.


Tangentially, I've always been amazed how disorganized crime data is. Would love to see something like compstat ubiquitously adopted in cities but the states rights side of me doesn't think the federal government should mandate how states collect data.

 

[Siver!]

Feeling the fury, guys.

 

[Joe]

People are offended crime isnt as high as they want it to be

 

[spamking]

What crap stats will the gun control jerks use to continually push their narratives now?

 

[spamking]

People are offended crime isnt as high as they want it to be

Some might be I guess, but many of us have been trying to tell folks that overall crime has been trending down the last 20 years or so.

 

[jrams]

And don't forget to tell them that almost every statistic is still higher than 2019. All this speaks to is a decline in the spike increases seen during COVID.

Even comparing data to 2019 is a little flawed. One of the points I see pushed that I don't agree with is that crime spiked during the pandemic. Looking at homicides, they started trending negatively at the end of 2019, so 2019 was inflated/spiking too. The jump measured in 2020 was likely even higher than understood, just amortized over two calendar years. We had a decent trend early 2018 to late 2019 of reducing violent crime that we are hopefully getting back to at this point.