Elections What happens in mid-terms if Roe V Wade is repealed

[Gunny]

Not sure if she’s been discussed but Kathy Barnett is an interesting midterm development to come out of the RvW controversy. A month ago she was a nobody. Today she’s polling neck and neck for the lead of the Republican primary. I had previously though that Fetterman, as a populist democrat in a rust belt state, was basically a lock for the seat. But if the democrat zeitgeist forces him to run on abortion and he’s running against Barnett then that seat is going red. Watch this and you’ll understand why…

 

[Islam Imamate]

Definitely helps the Dems even though Pelosi fought tooth and nail to elect a pro-choice Dem. That kind of news gets buried in their bubble.

Republicans had 2024 handed to them on a platter and they blow it by appealing to the Christian/Religious/Fundie base instead of trying to appeal to left of center, centrists and people just tired of the cultural war stuff.

How did Republicans blow anything here? Its the SCOTUS who made this decision and the draft opinion was leaked anyway so clearly not part of their plans. Should the SCOTUS try to time their decisions to benefit one party over the other? I've seen multiple people with this take and its just baffling to me.

 

[cooks1]

They could end or temporarily suspend the filibuster. Instead, they use it as an excuse to do nothing while having majorities in both houses and the white house. They dont actually care. They honestly believe that it is better for them to keep the filibuster in order to use this issue for campaigning and fund-raising. People are seeing through the bullshit. There have been 7 Democrat controls of the presidency and both houses since 1973, all vowing to codify Roe, they all lied, including Obama's supermajority from 2008 to 2010.

The democrat playbook works like this (since 92 anyway). Democrats take control and do nothing productive -> Democrat voters get apathetic and dont vote and Republicans take control -> Media shits all over Republicans during their time in control to whip Democrat voters into a frenzy -> Democrats take control and do nothing productive.

Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

They're garbage and have been garbage for a long time. Time to try and get a party into office that doesn't take bribes from corporations.

You are simply incorrect. Manchin and Sinema will not vote to remove the filibuster, even if it's just for abortion rights. So unless they have 2 Republicans to vote to remove the filibuster, they don't have the 50 votes they need to remove it.

 

[cooks1]

The same people that go ape shit now will be highly motivated to vote, but they were probably there already. May add a few more younger voters.

Inflation, supply shortages, and world events will play a much larger role that Roe.

It's Republican women over 50 that interest me the most. Women over 50 are almost an even split D/R. But this was the group that fought for these rights when Roe was enacted. And there were A LOT of republic women advocating for those rights. Abortion was not a partisan issue when Roe became law. A 6-3 conservative SCOTUS passed it by a vote of 7-2. About 45 million women over 50 voted in 2020, almost right down the middle.

I just don't know if there is any way to measure how this group will react to having something they fought so hard for so long ago just yanked away from them. But even a 10% swing among this demographic could alter the outcome in a lot of elections. I mentioned earlier that my mother has not voted for a Democrat since LBJ. She is absolutely livid as are a lot of her Republican peers.

 

[cooks1]

Not sure if she’s been discussed but Kathy Barnett is an interesting midterm development to come out of the RvW controversy. A month ago she was a nobody. Today she’s polling neck and neck for the lead of the Republican primary. I had previously though that Fetterman, as a populist democrat in a rust belt state, was basically a lock for the seat. But if the democrat zeitgeist forces him to run on abortion and he’s running against Barnett then that seat is going red. Watch this and you’ll understand why…

That video was powerful and very emotional. Thanks for sharing it. But when it says it wasn't a choice at the beginning, they were fucking right about that. It wasn't a choice. Kathy Barnett was born in 1971. 2 years before Roe was enacted. And our government was in the business of forcing 12 year old girls to carry the children of the men that raped them to term.

If Kathy's mother and her family made a conscious choice, they should be commended for that. Real life heroes and all the rest. I still don't think anyone should be forcing 12 year old girls to carry the children of men that raped them to term though. That sounds positively fucking medieval.

By the way though, this seat is already Red. It's Pat Toomey's seat. And that race is going to be a close one no matter who is running.

 

[Gunny]

That video was powerful and very emotional. Thanks for sharing it. But when it says it wasn't a choice at the beginning, they were fucking right about that. It wasn't a choice. Kathy Barnett was born in 1971. 2 years before Roe was enacted. And our government was in the business of forcing 12 year old girls to carry the children of the men that raped them to term.

If Kathy's mother and her family made a conscious choice, they should be commended for that. Real life heroes and all the rest. I still don't think anyone should be forcing 12 year old girls to carry the children of men that raped them to term though. That sounds positively fucking medieval.

By the way though, this seat is already Red. It's Pat Toomey's seat. And that race is going to be a close one no matter who is running.

Your points are valid for what they are but my post was specifically about how the issue will play in the midterms. The die hard abortion warriors on either side never want to admit this but, for those centrists whose votes are actually malleable, abortion is generally a squirmy topic with competing arguments tugging them in both directions. To turn the issue into an actual vote, candidates need a strong emotional appeal to overcome the counterpoints.

For the Democrats, warnings about banning abortion for victims of rape is the number one tactic, bar none. And the Supreme Court ruling theoretically provides an opportunity to deploy the argument. But to do so in this race, big Ogre-looking John Fetterman would need to stand on a stage tell sweet, appealing Kathy Barnett that her mother should have been able to abort her. The optics of that are just bloody awful and she’s skillful enough with her rhetoric to make him pay if he tries.

 

[cooks1]

Your points are valid for what they are but my post was specifically about how the issue will play in the midterms. The die hard abortion warriors on either side never want to admit this but, for those centrists whose votes are actually malleable, abortion is generally a squirmy topic with competing arguments tugging them in both directions. To turn the issue into an actual vote, candidates need a strong emotional appeal to overcome the counterpoints.

For the Democrats, warnings about banning abortion for victims of rape is the number one tactic, bar none. And the Supreme Court ruling theoretically provides an opportunity to deploy the argument. But to do so in this race, big Ogre-looking John Fetterman would need to stand on a stage tell sweet, appealing Kathy Barnett that her mother should have been able to abort her. The optics of that are just bloody awful and she’s skillful enough with her rhetoric to make him pay if he tries.

Those are excellent points, and I largely agree. This is precisely why I am interested in what women over 50 are going to do. They don't need a strong emotional appeal from a candidate. They already have one because they were the ones on the front lines advocating for Roe when it was enacted. And if they weren't advocating themselves, they were watching as their mothers and older sisters did.

This was a hard won right for women. And just as many Republican women were out there fighting for it as Democrats. Prior to the last 15 years or so, abortion was merely a religious argument. But Republicans have now made it part of their platform. It's going to be fascinating to see what this demographic group does. It's huge. 45 million women over 50 vote and it's generally 50/50. Even a small adjustment to that could have large ramifications on election day.

I hope you are wrong about democrats campaigning on doomsday situations and worse case scenarios like rape victims. They would be far, far better off just saying it's a hard fought right they deserve, and it's a travesty it's being taken away. 'They are taking away your rights' just say it over and over and over again.

 

[KnightTemplar]

All the outrage is coming from a very vocal minority. Most people believe there should be some restrictions on abortion. I think voters are going to care more about the fact that they can't afford gas or groceries anymore.

"It's the economy, stupid"

 

[andnowweknow]

"It's the economy, stupid"

Take away a right women have had for 50 years, then call them stupid.

Gonna be a rough midterms for Republicans if this is the answer lol

 

[KnightTemplar]

Take away a right women have had for 50 years, then call them stupid.

Gonna be a rough midterms for Republicans if this is the answer lol

I was quoting James Carville, a strategist in Bill Clinton's successful 1992 Presidential campaign. But I'm sure you knew that

 

[andnowweknow]

I was quoting James Carville, a strategist in Bill Clinton's successful 1992 Presidential campaign. But I'm sure you knew that

I did know that.

I just thought the use of the word "stupid" was ironic given that Republicans are so out of touch in their lack of understanding of how women (including women in their own party) are actually going to react if the Supreme Court overturns Roe.

I wouldn't put it past them to call women stupid for not concentrating on the economy given they think overturning Roe is going to be something other than a complete catastrophe for them politically.

 

[PrinceOfPain]

I wouldn't put it past them to call women stupid for not concentrating on the economy

It would be accurate.
The economy's a wee bit more important than the freedom to get railed bareback without consequence.

 

[andnowweknow]

It would be accurate.
The economy's a wee bit more important than the freedom to get railed bareback without consequence.

Thank you.

 

[Oliver Clothesoff]

I think the Protests at Justices homes will probably hurt the Dems a little but overall I don't think all this will matter much to moderates on either side with so many bigger issues at stake.

 

[PrinceOfPain]

Thank you.

Anytime.
One hopes that you're wrong of course.

 

[andnowweknow]

Anytime.
One hopes that you're wrong of course.

Objective reality of what is or "should" be important isn't really...objective.

The problem with calling women stupid and taking away their bodily autonomy is that they will hate your guts and with respect to politicians...not vote for them.

 

[StoneColdSteveAustin]

Take away a right women have had for 50 years, then call them stupid.

Gonna be a rough midterms for Republicans if this is the answer lol

What’s even more amazing is this idea that republicans have a plan for the economy and inflation.

it must be something similar to their healthcare plan they we’re going to implement after the ACA was overturned.

Absolutely nothing.

 

[KnightTemplar]

I did know that.

I just thought the use of the word "stupid" was ironic given that Republicans are so out of touch in their lack of understanding of how women (including women in their own party) are actually going to react if the Supreme Court overturns Roe.

I wouldn't put it past them to call women stupid for not concentrating on the economy given they think overturning Roe is going to be something other than a complete catastrophe for them politically.

I don't know enough about American politics to call how this will play out. Hell, I was genuinely shocked by Trump's victory in '16

That said, if it's anything like UK politics - you dance with the one who brought you. Both parties will enjoy significant tribal allegiances. And many people not directly effected by the supreme court's decision may very well put economic issues over Roe vs Wade.

 

[Phlog]

It's Republican women over 50 that interest me the most.

Yeah it is

 

[Phlog]

As an outsider, it's pretty interesting seeing the federal system in action where individual states do their thing.

Won't this just mean people cross state lines for abortions?