Official UFC on FOX 18 Thread

[EzFlyer]

Ferreira's odds are getting absurd. I think people are forgetting that he's a solid grappler since a lot of his fights have been standing. He's probably the better striker and on par with Mercier on the ground.

I agree...

I have been saying that people have been over estimating CDF all along.

...now they are underestimating him. Or at least in this matchup.

Oam is stronger. he probably has the better wrestling.

But they're close to a wash standing and overall Prolly the better grappler. Tho oam is likely 100% fine on top.

CDF has value.

+3.5 might be the way to go, tho. Waiting on that

 

[mkess101]

Am I the only one who's not touching the main event at all. There are really no bets on this fight that I think is a "lock"

I think there's a TON of value still in Natal -165 and Natal dec +130. Casey's striking is mediocre at best, he doesn't get his TRT and is flat out admitting it will have a negative affect on him, and his wrestling isn't very good. Yeah, he has solid bjj but probably not a very good chance at all of getting it to the ground. Natal is no world beater but he's a better striker and his grappling is plenty good enough to hang with Casey even if the fight should hit the mat. I love Natal's ML, like his dec line at +130, and think there's value in the over 2.5 at -155 as well.

Natal isn't good enough to really be a lock over anyone who's found their way into the UFC, but Casey really seems like terrific fade material at this point imo.

 

[EzFlyer]

I think there's a TON of value still in Natal -165 and Natal dec +130. Casey's striking is mediocre at best, he doesn't get his TRT and is flat out admitting it will have a negative affect on him, and his wrestling isn't very good. Yeah, he has solid bjj but probably not a very good chance at all of getting it to the ground. Natal is no world beater but he's a better striker and his grappling is plenty good enough to hang with Casey even if the fight should hit the mat. I love Natal's ML, like his dec line at +130, and think there's value in the over 2.5 at -155 as well.

Natal isn't good enough to really be a lock over anyone who's found their way into the UFC, but Casey really seems like terrific fade material at this point imo.

natal dec is +170, hasn't moved since opener -- (5d lines, that is)

 

[Joseph Budden]

Natal at -160 def has value considering Casey in round 1 will prob be +500. I honestly think stylistically Casey could give him some problems in the first, but from there we know the deal. He'll gas (so will Natal just not as bad) and get pot shotted to a decision loss

 

[mkess101]

natal dec is +170, hasn't moved since opener -- (5d lines, that is)

Yep you're right 5d is where I'm at and have it bet straight and in one parlay with Saff by dec LOL. +170 is even better value, in fact might add. Thanks for pointing out EZ. I have so many bets some I forget what lines even are. Was thinking it was +130 but was off.

 

[mkess101]

Natal at -160 def has value considering Casey in round 1 will prob be +500. I honestly think stylistically Casey could give him some problems in the first, but from there we know the deal. He'll gas (so will Natal just not as bad) and get pot shotted to a decision loss

Yeah I'm deep enough on Natal now that Casey rd 1 as a hedge I'll probably have to do. Hopefully it's +500 at least.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Bader is not a grinder/clincher it's not his style it's not his strength. I expect to see very little clinching on the fence and if there is I expect AJ to be able to dis-engage pretty easily. Most of Bader's takedown attempts are in the middle.

I am assuming Bader is going to fight smart which IMO means putting him on the fence and making it a grind. If Bader stands with him I think he gets KTFO in r1 or r2.

I am thinking about what Alvarez did to Pettis, wear him out by grinding for at least 2 rounds. This grinding style is a great way to neutralize dangerous strikers.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Barnett saying fighting is not the only thing in his life... is a red flag. He said he it never was, he says he has plenty of things to keep him busy.

I don't think its a red flag I think it is a sign of maturity. I am pretty high on Barnett after he roughed up Nelson. Barnett is a pretty smart guy and I think he takes his fights seriously he just doesn't make it the only thing he cares about. Dom Cruz said something simlar in that he doesn't need the belt to be happy or whatever. I think balance in life is a strength for mentally tough fighters.

 

[Card]

Barberena http://www.ufc.com/news/Barberena-Happy-to-Derail-Super-Sages-Rise

“I was already getting ready to fight someone else and I’m in excellent shape. It doesn’t matter who the guy standing across the cage is because I have to go out there and fight my fight.

I’m going to push the pace and put him in situations he’s never been in before.

“I was pretty excited about the scrap with Jonavin [Webb] because that was going to be a great one, but I couldn’t pass up this opportunity when they UFC called. [Northcutt] has all this publicity and hype behind him.

I think my toughness and my ability to pick things up as the rounds go on are going to be difficult for him to handle.”

 

[mkess101]

I don't think its a red flag I think it is a sign of maturity. I am pretty high on Barnett after he roughed up Nelson. Barnett is a pretty smart guy and I think he takes his fights seriously he just doesn't make it the only thing he cares about. Dom Cruz said something simlar in that he doesn't need the belt to be happy or whatever. I think balance in life is a strength for mentally tough fighters.

I don't see it as a positive or negative honestly. It's just life, and all fighters are different. Some guys maybe thrive on living at the gym and borderline overtraining. Others need better balance. With some it depends on where they are in their careers.

I think a lot of times as cappers looking for an edge we try a little too hard to jam square pegs into round holes. "Fighter x just seems so confident" or "Fighter Y had family issues leading up to the fight". But guys all react so differently I think sometimes it's just overkill in terms of using the info to cap fights. Fighter x might seem confident, but maybe for him that means he doesn't respect his opponent enough or who knows? Maybe fighter Y became more focused in training and fighting was his escape from his family issues? Who the hell knows, right?

Jordan Mein's dad (who's one of his trainers I think) got arrested (for sexual battery--I think they accused him of grabbing a hotel employee in his room or something?) the night before he fought and I remember how everyone here was trying to use that to help cap the fight. I was thinking "Okay I don't see that being a good thing for him but is someone really gonna bet against him because of it?" He won (albeit by split decision).

That was sort of long winded but the point I'm trying to make is that I think we sometimes try to play armchair psychologist a little too much in capping fights and fighters.

 

[Card]

Ortiz - http://www.ufc.com/news/Dustin-Ortiz-ready-to-cement-comeback-in-Newark

I was scheduled to fight Ian McCall, so I was preparing for a different fighter, and then I get Willie Gates – an awesome guy, very tough opponent, but he’s an up and comer. He’s got nothing to lose. So the pressure was there because I felt like I had to win, I had to make a statement and I had to finish this guy to really prove that I’m getting better each fight and really learning and honing my skills as a fighter and as a professional.”

I’m getting as good as I can while I’m sitting out,” he said. “I’m ready at all times. I’ve been waiting for a while and I’m good to go.”

“I’m trying to fight for that belt any chance I get,” he said. “An impressive win over Reis, maybe even two more after that, and then a title shot at the end. This year is about building up my character, building up my fight skills and really earning that title shot. And I will do it this year. This year is my year, I’m remotivated, I’m in the gym all the time, I’m getting my name out there and I’m getting my skills right where they need to be to take that belt.”

 

[Sham5916910]

I am assuming Bader is going to fight smart which IMO means putting him on the fence and making it a grind. If Bader stands with him I think he gets KTFO in r1 or r2.

I am thinking about what Alvarez did to Pettis, wear him out by grinding for at least 2 rounds. This grinding style is a great way to neutralize dangerous strikers.

I agree its a great strategy but i dont think Bader can replicate it its not his style of fighting.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

If like you say Bader elects to stand with AJ I highly doubt AJ will gas. Bader brings no pressure standing and AJ has only shown himself to slow down in his second UFC run when he is put on his back and pounded. After three rounds with Davis he looked absolutely fine. Also Evans looked old in their fight after two years out and Maldonado also rocked Glover after being beaten half to death.

Bader elects for desperate takedowns when cornered and swarmed watch for AJ's uppercut to bring home the W.

I'm not saying it's a guarantee that AJ will gas. Heck he might come in the best shape of his life in this fight and win a decision. But we've seen in the past that he does so there is definitely a flaw in the type of fighter that he is. His ITD line is -205 I mean, someone convince me there's value in that. There are better bets on this card.

That's really all I'm saying.

 

[Card]

 

[mkess101]

I agree its a great strategy but i dont think Bader can replicate it its not his style of fighting.

That may well be true but the flipside of that is that we've never seen Rumble be able to fight effectively against someone who has no interest in engaging him other than to a degree Phil Davis who has below average footwork and hands.

If the first 2-3 rounds is Bader circling Rumble landing jabs and refusing to stand in the pocket how does Rumble react? Gus should have done it but didn't. I'm not saying there will be zero chances for Rumble to engage (that would be unrealistic) but if Bader fights with a high fight IQ he can absolutely limit those opportunities big time. And if Rumble is forced to really move forward with aggression because he's getting jabbed like Rashad did and not getting opportunities to use his power, all of a sudden Bader's power double becomes a very viable weapon.

Rumble is most effective when he can sit back and look to counter while focusing on tdd (when fighting someone who can wrestle). It's hard to land powerful counters if the other guy has little to no interest in trading in the pocket. I know it only takes one from Rumble, but I agree with Rebel Lion. There's better lines than Rumble's itd line. The only value on Rumble I see at all is his rd 1 prop. I think if he gets the KO, it happens early.

 

[Sham5916910]

That may well be true but the flipside of that is that we've never seen Rumble be able to fight effectively against someone who has no interest in engaging him other than to a degree Phil Davis who has below average footwork and hands.

If the first 2-3 rounds is Bader circling Rumble landing jabs and refusing to stand in the pocket how does Rumble react? Gus should have done it but didn't. I'm not saying there will be zero chances for Rumble to engage (that would be unrealistic) but if Bader fights with a high fight IQ he can absolutely limit those opportunities big time. And if Rumble is forced to really move forward with aggression because he's getting jabbed like Rashad did and not getting opportunities to use his power, all of a sudden Bader's power double becomes a very viable weapon.

Rumble is most effective when he can sit back and look to counter while focusing on tdd (when fighting someone who can wrestle). It's hard to land powerful counters if the other guy has little to no interest in trading in the pocket. I know it only takes one from Rumble, but I agree with Rebel Lion. There's better lines than Rumble's itd line. The only value on Rumble I see at all is his rd 1 prop. I think if he gets the KO, it happens early.

All valid points. I really dont trust Bader's chin tho i think Rumble only needs to connect once for Bader to do the merry dance.

 

[PrydeShlls]

I really like Natal at -160, Barnett at -132, and Ortiz at -210 parlay returning a little over +300.
Also like Barnett at -132 (big) and CDF at +240 (small).
Not much else at this point.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

I was talking about that -750 with some guys, I agree. I went to do the same thing, but it jumped to -1000ish .. They beat me to it.

-1000 honestly has "value" too but the payout is so negligible that I don't think in ever gonna lay that on anything


Edit:
Yeaaa im not awake yet.

Try not to force any plays to close those parlays. If you wanted to bet something normally go ahead, but those risk amounts are no going anywhere

Definitely. I just plan on doing what I was originally going to do. Which was to put in ~ -1000 plays that had "value". I have been looking at NOT Rosholt itd -930 to put in. When I'm playing serious (risking around 1u+) parlays I tend to opt for safety instead of reward. Usually not "~ -1000 safe" lol, but I try to stick to a theme.

By the way, I seriously liked that Cain NOT by SUB -750 prop so much, I was seriously thinking about betting it $750 for $100. No joke lol.

 

[Joseph Budden]

By the way, I seriously liked that Cain NOT by SUB -750 prop so much, I was seriously thinking about betting it $750 for $100. No joke lol.

I would have done this. I mean, cmon Cain not by sub should've been -4000.

 

[mkess101]

I would have done this. I mean, cmon Cain not by sub should've been -4000.

Trying to think of someone who pulled off a sub over a far superior submission/bjj guy where I was like "Wow no freaking way!" Maybe...

...but Hughes had at least won fights by sub previously. With all the MMA I've watched the fact I can't come up with at least a few right off the top of my head says yeah it's pretty damn rare. Cain isn't subbing Werdum, it's not gonna happen. -1000 even has value.