Official UFC 196 Thread

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EzFlyer said:
fightmetric.com used for grading purposes
Sat 3/5 1067 Diaz has more takedowns -150
11:59PM 1068 Mcgregor has more takedowns +110
fightmetric.com used for grading purposes
Sat 3/5 1069 Diaz significant strikes landed o85½ +160
11:59PM 1070 McGregor significant strikes landed u85½ -210


on 5d

i don't understand the strikes landed.. is it 85.5 for both guys cumulative?
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Betting Nate to have more takedowns is an easy bet. Feels like you will either win or push. Conor probably won't even attempt one, but I see Nate going for them in the clinch
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Annnndddddd almost TWO fucking hours later they finally put up the prop I've been waiting for most. Ishihara +3.5. 2u on -160. I think I developed tennis elbow from refreshing so many damn times
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hahahaha

yea i was looking for that one, too. i hate the price, tho :(
 
REEMwillbeCHAMP said:
Is there any reason NOT to put money on Nunes? Pretty surprising she's not as favored...also what do you guys think of Anderson v Lawlor? Thinking of putting down some money on Lawlor also
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I was going to play Lawlor straight, but I like the +3.5 better. Anderson's best route to victory is decision, and it's fairly likely he'll drop a round IMO.
 
EzFlyer said:
that's what i figured but it's laid out oddly
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Conor Sig strikes per minute - 5.53
Diaz Sig strikes per minute 4.3

= 9.83

85.5 divided by 9.83 = 8.7 minutes or 1.74 rounds


Put .6u on it +160
 
Shevchenko dec 1u @ 4.0 (£50 to win £200)
to hedge with Nunes rd 1 which is the same odds

Seems like a fairly safe way to do that fight... I actually think Valentina dec is the most likely outcome since I don't think Nunes will get a rd 1 finish (so I'm debating whether to put much on that) since Valentina is a 'safety first' kinda fighter with a lot of standup experience... she doesn't seem especially interested in finishing so should outpoint Nunes in rd 2 & 3 at least, hopefully.
 
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no glove touch -210 was fuckin gold arggggh, i bet it so small. it's -530 already
 
EzFlyer said:
no glove touch -210 was fuckin gold arggggh, i bet it so small. it's -530 already
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FUCK!!! Was hoping it wouldn't move from -280, was just about to take a break at work. So much for that prop.
 
Yeah I got it around -320 I think. Expensive but I'm okay with it.
 
This prop is either worded very inartfully or you guys are reading it wrong by thinking it means combined strikes, I can't tell which.

fightmetric.com used for grading purposes
Diaz significant strikes landed o85½ +170
McGregor significant strikes landed u85½ -230
 
I really hope this fight his the mat. Very curious to see how that dynamic would play out. Would love to see how Conor reacts if Nate throws up a triangle/armbar/etc.
 
JimGunn said:
This prop is either worded very inartfully or you guys are reading it wrong by thinking it means combined strikes, I can't tell which.

fightmetric.com used for grading purposes
Diaz significant strikes landed o85½ +170
McGregor significant strikes landed u85½ -230
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This most certainly isn't combined... They've made these odds around the fact that they think nate will be out before he can land o85.5 strikes.. or mcgregor need less than 85.5

I think there's some bloody good value in these
 
Kthankss said:
This most certainly isn't combined... They've made these odds around the fact that they think nate will be out before he can land o85.5 strikes.. or mcgregor need less than 85.5

I think there's some bloody good value in these
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If that was the case, wouldn't they both have a o/u for sig strikes, not just nate over and conor under?

What if Conor has more than 85.5 and Nate has less that 85.5. Than both sides of the prop of how you're interpreting it lose.
 
Kthankss said:
This most certainly isn't combined... They've made these odds around the fact that they think nate will be out before he can land o85.5 strikes.. or mcgregor need less than 85.5

I think there's some bloody good value in these
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Seems pretty obvious to me that's what it means too and it is not combined strikes. The way it's worded makes no sense if it is for combined strikes. But there's been some serious debate recently about a few different interpretations of bet grading- with my interpretation always correct of course, lol- so I was trying to be diplomatic.
 
Jae Gibbz said:
If that was the case, wouldn't they both have a o/u for sig strikes, not just nate over and conor under?

What if Conor has more than 85.5 and Nate has less that 85.5. Than both sides of the prop of how you're interpreting it lose.
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Do they need over and under? I imagine their reasoning is as I part explained earlier... the most likely outcome is connor has more than 85.5 and nate less. They want you to take the odds they're offering... its now up to you whether you think they set the line correctly.

JimGunn said:
Seems pretty obvious to me that's what it means too and it is not combined strikes. The way it's worded makes no sense if it is for combined strikes. But there's been some serious debate recently about a few different interpretations of bet grading- with my interpretation always correct of course, lol- so I was trying to be diplomatic.
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Yeah, I dont read it any other way.... not to say I'm never wrong but I dont see how you can jump to the conclusion that they are in any way related.
 
EzFlyer said:
no glove touch -210 was fuckin gold arggggh, i bet it so small. it's -530 already
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Got -280 and still happy.

Just took McGregor to score more takedowns at -140, -240 and -240.
Amazing lines, but low limits.
 
Kthankss said:
Do they need over and under? I imagine their reasoning is as I part explained earlier... the most likely outcome is connor has more than 85.5 and nate less. They want you to take the odds they're offering... its now up to you whether you think they set the line correctly.



Yeah, I dont read it any other way.... not to say I'm never wrong but I dont see how you can jump to the conclusion that they are in any way related.
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How is the most likely outcome of Conor having more than 85.5 but the under 85.5 is the favorite? This would be one of the first times I've seen them make an MMA prop where both sides of the prop can easily lose
 
Jae Gibbz said:
How is the most likely outcome of Conor having more than 85.5 but the under 85.5 is the favorite? This would be one of the first times I've seen them make an MMA prop where both sides of the prop can easily lose
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In your opinion it is the most likely outcome... I'm assuming the bookies see it as going to be connor putting an absolute beat down on nate and it ending within 1-2 rounds. If you're certain they can easily lose, id contact them and inquire further about what the line actually means.

EDIT: I'm with you on this though, like I said in my first post there is value in these lines
 
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