Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - August 2016

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Dusty Trunks said:
Under valued at -200? That's a huge favorite in baseball. Especially when the dog in this case has a pitcher going that is as hot a Santana has been.

Now with that said, the Twins have just blown the lead and will probably lose lol. But at nearly +200 I don't regret the play.
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yes, undervalued at -200. Santana is still a below average pitcher and Stroman has had a great year, even tho advanced metrics show that he's been overachieving a bit. Toronto is a much better and fielding team too. Well, i just think the Twins are a terrible team. i thought the line should have been closer to -250ish. bad beat for you tho, i stayed away altogether

but yes, the yankees have been very good as of late. that was the reason i was on them today. pretty much, i liked green better in this situation over bundy but theyre both great young pitchers
 
iGnP said:
yes, undervalued at -200. Santana is still a below average pitcher and Stroman has had a great year, even tho advanced metrics show that he's been overachieving a bit. Toronto is a much better and fielding team too. Well, i just think the Twins are a terrible team. i thought the line should have been closer to -250ish. bad beat for you tho, i stayed away altogether

but yes, the yankees have been very good as of late. that was the reason i was on them today. pretty much, i liked green better in this situation over bundy but theyre both great young pitchers
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Yep Twins are awful, no question. They can put up runs however, which they did. Stroman also has been very up and down this year and has an ERA that has touched 5 at times, so I guess I don't value him nearly as much as you. Santana has been as good as any pitcher in the league over the last two months. Guy had a 1.90 ERA in July and a 1.33 ERA in Aug.

Unfortunately it still didn't matter because they are...the Twins. Tough one to take but just have to realize it was the right play value wise and move on.

lol

Good call on the Yanks though.
 
Dusty Trunks said:
Yep Twins are awful, no question. They can put up runs however, which they did. Stroman also has been very up and down this year and has an ERA that has touched 5 at times, so I guess I don't value him nearly as much as you. Santana has been as good as any pitcher in the league over the last two months. Guy had a 1.90 ERA in July and a 1.33 ERA in Aug.

Unfortunately it still didn't matter because they are...the Twins. Tough one to take but just have to realize it was the right play value wise and move on.

lol

Good call on the Yanks though.
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That could be it. I don't put too much weight on recent games bc it could lead to recency bias. I guess that's enough of a sample size for me to reconsider him, though.

I tailed u on the Dodgers btw. Bol
 
iGnP said:
That could be it. I don't put too much weight on recent games bc it could lead to recency bias. I guess that's enough of a sample size for me to reconsider him, though.

I tailed u on the Dodgers btw. Bol
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Hopefully they hold on.

you on anything for tonight?
 
Hey 3/3 in non-MMA bets today. Nice
 
hit a goofy man city/barcelona/giants parlay today.

playing new york fc or draw/texas rangers (tomorrow) parlay now.
 
on the red sox tonight. not extremely confident, but enough for half a unit
 
Already counting the sox bet as an L. Rodriguez can't get an effing strike
 
piglord said:
what are your thoughts on tomorrow? liking the cubs and red sox but both juiced.
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Looking over them right now. I've been betting the night before lately and have been on the right side of the movement. I'll post finalized picks in like an hour
 
@piglord

Cubs have a huge advantage in starting pitching so i guess if you dont mind paying the juice, id support it. The red sox, on the other hand, i am on the other side. Porcello isn't THAT much better than Andriese to justify a -200 favorite, especially with them playing a late game tonight. ill be playing the Rays

my picks for tomorrow:
rays
yankees (maybe just a first five bet, though)
mets

(rays and mets are big dogs so those are smaller than the yankees play, which will be for 1u)
 
iGnP said:
@piglord

Cubs have a huge advantage in starting pitching so i guess if you dont mind paying the juice, id support it. The red sox, on the other hand, i am on the other side. Porcello isn't THAT much better than Andriese to justify a -200 favorite, especially with them playing a late game tonight. ill be playing the Rays

my picks for tomorrow:
rays
yankees (maybe just a first five bet, though)
mets

(rays and mets are big dogs so those are smaller than the yankees play, which will be for 1u)
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ok will avoid the red sox. what do you think about texas? i've been doing well playing them with darvish and hammels on the mound but avoid them with anyone else.
 
piglord said:
ok will avoid the red sox. what do you think about texas? i've been doing well playing them with darvish and hammels on the mound but avoid them with anyone else.
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Texas is supposed to have a bit pitching mismatch here but did you happen to watch Darvish's last start? what's with the 5 walks? that's a bit worrisome to me. if that game was just a bad day for him, then i think the -150 is justified. wouldnt say there's much value tho.
 
edit NVM
 
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Played KC Royals +135 last night, tonight going to play STL Cardinals ML.
 
chill doggie said:
Played KC Royals +135 last night, tonight going to play STL Cardinals ML.
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Big pitching mismatch in the KC/Yankees game. I was considering going w the Yankees but they got too expensive. I might live bet them if they fall behind
 
I have a degen parlay...
Dodgers/rockies over +12
blue jays/Orioles over +11
tigers/white sox over +11

4.14 units to win 57.09 units.

complete and total degen play.
 
LogicalInsanity said:
I have a degen parlay...
Dodgers/rockies over +12
blue jays/Orioles over +11
tigers/white sox over +11

4.14 units to win 57.09 units.

complete and total degen play.
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That's a lot of units for a degen parlay
 
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