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UFC 203 - Stipe vs Overeem - Cleveland
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I'm a dumbass. Thanks dude.
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http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/5/3...calderwood-opens-up-about-vicious-circle-that
here jojo speaks about the problems she had leading up to that moroz fight and a bunch of other stuff if you want to have a read.. i think for sure her striking defence and overall game will improve alot from being at tristar but we will have to see if its enough to handle Andrade at this point
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Mental wise she should have been far away from the cage as possible. If I'd ever consider a fight fluke then it would be the Moroz fight.
Bring on Michael Jackson!
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Nice link
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After watching some tape last night, I want to make the mistake of betting Eye for a 4th time in a row? She should be the better striker, she should be scrappy enough to work out of the clinch if Bethe tries to get in there and use her physical strength, and she should be faster. My concern is that this is Jessica Eye. Her fight IQ is beyond shit, i'm 0-3 betting her, and she is so easy to counter when her chin sticks out and her hands don't return to a defensive position when shes throwing. Probably just throw her moneyline in my round robin.
Also feeling pretty good about Dober? Gonzalez is an OK prospect, and if he paced himself he'd fare a lot better. But he goes balls to the wall, and he CAN NOT deal with grinding of any sort. Gives up takedowns and positions sooo easy. Considering Dober is tough as shit, has fought similar styles in Holtzmann and Cruickshank (not really a fight but still), and can grind for 3 solid rounds this should be a W for him. Just worried Gonzalez has learned to pace himself and use range more effectively, and worried Dober had a semi-close fight with lowest tier LW Scott Holtzmann. But other than that I feel good about my play. Dober decision and Dober round 3 have to be most likely outcomes
Also feeling pretty good about Dober? Gonzalez is an OK prospect, and if he paced himself he'd fare a lot better. But he goes balls to the wall, and he CAN NOT deal with grinding of any sort. Gives up takedowns and positions sooo easy. Considering Dober is tough as shit, has fought similar styles in Holtzmann and Cruickshank (not really a fight but still), and can grind for 3 solid rounds this should be a W for him. Just worried Gonzalez has learned to pace himself and use range more effectively, and worried Dober had a semi-close fight with lowest tier LW Scott Holtzmann. But other than that I feel good about my play. Dober decision and Dober round 3 have to be most likely outcomes
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Line should be even on Eye-Bethe both suck
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Brad Taschuk http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/full-ufc-203-opening-betting-odds/
Faber has been on a slight decline of late, but he’s still a quality bantamweight capable of hanging with anyone in the division and beating much of the top 15. In Rivera however, he faces an opponent who has a sharp boxing game and the ability to shut down Faber’s wrestling. If we start to see scrambles in this bout, that’s somewhere Faber will still have the edge and he could find a guillotine or make his way to Rivera’s back, however I think as the fight progresses as a whole Rivera will be able to throw more in combination and edge his way ahead. It will be competitive, but I’m going to lean slightly to Rivera. From a betting perspective, I think Rivera may end up too popular a choice for how close this fight will be, and we may see Faber as a dog in the +140 to +150 range, and that certainly presents some value.
The last time a fighter really pressured Joanne Calderwood, she was rocked and then submitted by Maryna Moroz. Since then, Moroz has lost to Valerie LeTourneau and had unimpressive performances against Cristina Stanciu and Danielle Taylor. That doesn’t seem to bode well for Calderwood when she steps up against an even more aggressive (and far more talented) Jessica Andrade. The Brazilian will march forward with no respect for Calderwood’s power, land shots, and may even score another stoppage. Even Andrade’s grappling, which has given pause in the past, shouldn’t be an issue here. Calderwood is a capable wrestler but not a submission threat, and I expect Andrade’s takedown defense to be solid at 115.
Jessica Eye is a more dangerous and proficient striker than Bethe Correia, but I’m really not sure that matters in this fight. Eye has had trouble pulling the trigger on more than one occasion now, something that is never a concern for Correia. Neither fighter is likely to resort to takedowns here — and even if they were, Correia has solid defense and poor takedowns of her own — so the fight will likely stay on the feet, and unless there’s a big change in philosophy from Eye I think she loses another decision due to a lack of volume.
Michael McBride is going to have height and reach advantages on Nik Lentz, but those are about the only things going his way here. He’s recently been fighting above 155, and now he’s going to have to cut down to lightweight on a week’s notice to face a draining stylistic matchup. This will also be McBride’s first fight in 2016, and he only competed once in 2015 as well. His submission game is slick, but that could also lead to him embracing the grappling match that Lentz will certainly try to implement. We should see an increasingly one-sided Lentz decision as McBride fades in rounds two and three.
It’s been 16 months since we’ve seen Brad Tavares in action, and 14 months since Caio Magalhaes has stepped foot in the Octagon, so this bout has a bit of uncertainty to it. However, if they stick true to their previous form, this should be a very winnable fight for Tavares. He’s a cleaner striker and better wrestler than Magalhaes, who has competed at a higher level throughout his career. I would anticipate that this fight will spend a considerable amount of time in the clinch, where Tavares outworks Magalhaes to a decision, and I can’t see this fight being too exciting.
The best fight on the prelims, by far, is the flyweight bout between Ian McCall and Ray Borg. The hype on Borg has cooled significantly since he suffered his first loss to Justin Scoggins, but that was a stylistically horrible matchup for him. Against McCall, he’s going to face someone who will be far more willing to engage in a grappling match, especially given McCall’s troubles with hand injuries that could limit his striking ability. As long as McCall can grapple near 100% he should be the better wrestler than Borg, but that’s a real question mark at this point. If the line gets up past +200, Borg (or Borg by Decision) could be worth a play.
Yancy Medeiros is the latest fighter to make the jump from lightweight to welterweight, and he’s facing an interesting stylistic matchup with Sean Spencer. Both fighters are similar in stature, but Spencer is simply physically larger. This fight shouldn’t have much grappling in it, as Medeiros is still yet to land a takedown in the UFC and has some excellent takedown defense of his own. The difference in this fight could very well be Medeiros’ lack of striking defense, which has plagued him throughout his UFC tenure. If he doesn’t possess a massive speed difference after moving up from lightweight, he could be in trouble and this could be a much closer bout than most anticipate.
Francimar Barroso has shown excellent takedown defense up at 205, so it will be interesting to see if he can keep his bout on the feet against CB Dolloway. If he can, he still has to overcome his low output which is going to be tough. However, Dolloway has never had the most stout chin, so it may just take one shot from a 205er to change this fight. Unfortunately for Barroso, I don’t think that shot ever comes and Dolloway’s return to 205 is a success.
Jason Gonzalez has never gone to a decision in his MMA career. The closest was when he lost on TUF to Abner Lloveras in a two-round exhibition bout. Against Drew Dober, he’s probably going to have to go to a decision if he wants to win, since Dober is tough to finish. For a guy who has never been that deep in a fight, Dober is a tough matchup because he doesn’t really fade at all. Even if Gonzalez comes out strong, I think Dober wins the second and third rounds to take a decision.
Faber has been on a slight decline of late, but he’s still a quality bantamweight capable of hanging with anyone in the division and beating much of the top 15. In Rivera however, he faces an opponent who has a sharp boxing game and the ability to shut down Faber’s wrestling. If we start to see scrambles in this bout, that’s somewhere Faber will still have the edge and he could find a guillotine or make his way to Rivera’s back, however I think as the fight progresses as a whole Rivera will be able to throw more in combination and edge his way ahead. It will be competitive, but I’m going to lean slightly to Rivera. From a betting perspective, I think Rivera may end up too popular a choice for how close this fight will be, and we may see Faber as a dog in the +140 to +150 range, and that certainly presents some value.
The last time a fighter really pressured Joanne Calderwood, she was rocked and then submitted by Maryna Moroz. Since then, Moroz has lost to Valerie LeTourneau and had unimpressive performances against Cristina Stanciu and Danielle Taylor. That doesn’t seem to bode well for Calderwood when she steps up against an even more aggressive (and far more talented) Jessica Andrade. The Brazilian will march forward with no respect for Calderwood’s power, land shots, and may even score another stoppage. Even Andrade’s grappling, which has given pause in the past, shouldn’t be an issue here. Calderwood is a capable wrestler but not a submission threat, and I expect Andrade’s takedown defense to be solid at 115.
Jessica Eye is a more dangerous and proficient striker than Bethe Correia, but I’m really not sure that matters in this fight. Eye has had trouble pulling the trigger on more than one occasion now, something that is never a concern for Correia. Neither fighter is likely to resort to takedowns here — and even if they were, Correia has solid defense and poor takedowns of her own — so the fight will likely stay on the feet, and unless there’s a big change in philosophy from Eye I think she loses another decision due to a lack of volume.
Michael McBride is going to have height and reach advantages on Nik Lentz, but those are about the only things going his way here. He’s recently been fighting above 155, and now he’s going to have to cut down to lightweight on a week’s notice to face a draining stylistic matchup. This will also be McBride’s first fight in 2016, and he only competed once in 2015 as well. His submission game is slick, but that could also lead to him embracing the grappling match that Lentz will certainly try to implement. We should see an increasingly one-sided Lentz decision as McBride fades in rounds two and three.
It’s been 16 months since we’ve seen Brad Tavares in action, and 14 months since Caio Magalhaes has stepped foot in the Octagon, so this bout has a bit of uncertainty to it. However, if they stick true to their previous form, this should be a very winnable fight for Tavares. He’s a cleaner striker and better wrestler than Magalhaes, who has competed at a higher level throughout his career. I would anticipate that this fight will spend a considerable amount of time in the clinch, where Tavares outworks Magalhaes to a decision, and I can’t see this fight being too exciting.
The best fight on the prelims, by far, is the flyweight bout between Ian McCall and Ray Borg. The hype on Borg has cooled significantly since he suffered his first loss to Justin Scoggins, but that was a stylistically horrible matchup for him. Against McCall, he’s going to face someone who will be far more willing to engage in a grappling match, especially given McCall’s troubles with hand injuries that could limit his striking ability. As long as McCall can grapple near 100% he should be the better wrestler than Borg, but that’s a real question mark at this point. If the line gets up past +200, Borg (or Borg by Decision) could be worth a play.
Yancy Medeiros is the latest fighter to make the jump from lightweight to welterweight, and he’s facing an interesting stylistic matchup with Sean Spencer. Both fighters are similar in stature, but Spencer is simply physically larger. This fight shouldn’t have much grappling in it, as Medeiros is still yet to land a takedown in the UFC and has some excellent takedown defense of his own. The difference in this fight could very well be Medeiros’ lack of striking defense, which has plagued him throughout his UFC tenure. If he doesn’t possess a massive speed difference after moving up from lightweight, he could be in trouble and this could be a much closer bout than most anticipate.
Francimar Barroso has shown excellent takedown defense up at 205, so it will be interesting to see if he can keep his bout on the feet against CB Dolloway. If he can, he still has to overcome his low output which is going to be tough. However, Dolloway has never had the most stout chin, so it may just take one shot from a 205er to change this fight. Unfortunately for Barroso, I don’t think that shot ever comes and Dolloway’s return to 205 is a success.
Jason Gonzalez has never gone to a decision in his MMA career. The closest was when he lost on TUF to Abner Lloveras in a two-round exhibition bout. Against Drew Dober, he’s probably going to have to go to a decision if he wants to win, since Dober is tough to finish. For a guy who has never been that deep in a fight, Dober is a tough matchup because he doesn’t really fade at all. Even if Gonzalez comes out strong, I think Dober wins the second and third rounds to take a decision.
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I'd avoid Bethe Eye like the plague.
I also recommend not betting on or against fighters that have never fought in the UFC before. I very seldom do this. Footage can be limited, you can't really gauge their level as you have no idea about the opponents they have beaten and most of these guys seem to up their game in the big league. Just sharing my two cents.
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If I followed that advice I wouldn't have caked off Jack the Joker
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I hate this lazy journalism it really winds me up. Barroso has not "shown excellent takedown defence up at 205". He's never been taken down correct but no one has tried to take him down bar a few lame attempts by Stringer. They make it sound like he's been stuffing takedowns left and right.
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If I followed that advice I wouldn't have caked off Jack the Joker
Herm was slightly different in that he had fought some well known names outside the UFC. I'm talking more about the likes of Gonzalez who has fought God knows who and footage is limited regional kind of guys i mean.
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Disagree man. Herm fought no one of UFC calibur, and you can definitely make smart bets if you watch tape. Just have to take into account the level of opposition, and if you know what you're looking at you can interpret how the person's skillset will fare against their UFC opposition. I've won plenty of bets with newcomers involved. Lots of times it has the best value since bookies aren't sure how to price things. Herm by dec at +270 was a steal when I saw it is the most likely outcome for sure.
Most of Gonzalez' footage is from TUF so that scares me, but seeing him vs Welsh and Lloveras definitely gives me a solid enough read to interpret how this fight can go.
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Journalism?
Brad works for mmaoddsbreaker/kalikas, the guy who usually sets the openining mma lines. That's our competition.
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I never read anything from MMAOB they, their records and their podcasts suck.
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