UFN 94 - Johnson vs Poirier - Texas

Status
Not open for further replies.
CR0W said:
Thanks man. Used to be able to do at least 4 or 5 a card and I had a much higher success rate in betting MMA back then as opposed to just betting of mainly what I can remember from previous fights from memory like now. Not bet as much on MMA recently mainly just boxing but going to try get a few more out for this card. Won an alright amount last weekend on a Boxing and UFC 7 fold but focusing mainly on MMA weekend and possible Boxing bets on the Alvarez vs Smith card.
Click to expand...

I look forward to more mate, cheers
 
EzFlyer said:
shoeface KO: 25 for 117.50 / guimaraes
Click to expand...

Huh? Post USADA shoeface isn't ko'ing him lol. Also shoefaces boxing kinda sucks. Guimaraes has granite chin. Interesting bet
 
Brunson is trying to get into his head, to slow his down, but he's going to have problems, I expect fireworks, wrestler vs striker, it's a perfect match up

 
Hall - I'm faster, I'm stronger, all I need is a split second, just need a small window

 
michi972 said:
Damn, thinking whether Kongo or Carneiro is better fighter
Click to expand...


Yea. Interesting line of thinking. I'd probably bet Kongo at evens though. He's got a bit of a size advantage.

Make it happen Coker!! Fans demand it!!
 
Surprised Quinonez is the underdog. He's higher ranked, more active striker, more active takedowns, 4 years younger, coming from a win.
 
I'm liking Peres here over Morales at -120. Unfortunately there's not much tape out their of Morales, from what I watched he's tough, he's long and uses his length, and he's very game. But I think Peres has been constantly improving fight by fight and is pretty crafty. He seems to recognize his opponents game and adjusts accordingly, fighting calm and smart. Seems to have decent sub defense as well, decent wrestling defense, and great counter striking. I would've capped him a bit higher, not a huge lean but he's worth a unit or two at -120.
 
jack5603 said:
I'm liking Peres here over Morales at -120. Unfortunately there's not much tape out their of Morales, from what I watched he's tough, he's long and uses his length, and he's very game. But I think Peres has been constantly improving fight by fight and is pretty crafty. He seems to recognize his opponents game and adjusts accordingly, fighting calm and smart. Seems to have decent sub defense as well, decent wrestling defense, and great counter striking. I would've capped him a bit higher, not a huge lean but he's worth a unit or two at -120.
Click to expand...
Completely agree. Especially him improving. He seems to be putting it together
 
Just watched some tape on Gomez/Quinones. A hard fight to call, probably a pass for smart betters. Gomez is the more powerful striker, but Quinones is tough and scrappy. He also has pretty good movement, moves around a lot. Gomez seems to fight a smart in-and-out striking game, catching his opponents on their way in. However when he fought someone with even better/smarter movement in Rob Font, he froze up and looked shitty. Hard to say how he fares against Quinones. I'm thinking either a unit on Quinones because I think the fight should be closer to pick em, or considering the o1.5 at -170. Quinones has shown a strong chin.
 
EzFlyer said:
i like 6 overs here.
(current prices)

brown-hall O2.5 -160 - hall gunshy all the time, brunson likely to try to wrestle his way to a 15 min win

glenn-dunham O2.5 -175 - dunham is gonna ride glenn in all likelihood, and while glenn is short notice up a weightclass, he wont' be outssized and is durable

robertson-carneiro O2.5 -140 - both grappling based fighters, carneiro more decorated but robertson never been subbed

makhachev-wade O2.5 -235 - ok, this one's steep.. way better when it was -180.. but c'mon, we all think this is going 3.

muhammad-a.montano O2.5 -170 - muhammad is a decision machine. just look at his record. even when he turns it up he doesn't know how to sit down on his strikes and put someone away. montano bros are tough.

brown-e.montano O1.5 -145 - how is this one O1.5? and how'd the price shift down to here? brown is still green (lol that sounds weird) -- yes, he had finishes against regional guys but he doesn't look like he knows how to seal the deal at the ufc level to me. again, montano bros are tough.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I like kind of like all these as well. Not playing Hall/Brunson because it doesn't jive with my play on Brunson at -150 (I think Brunson will win almost every decision, and he has been super aggro lately, and probably will want to punch his way inside, so I prefer his ML to the over o2.5), and I don't trust Carneiro/Robertson as much you. I think anything is possible in terms of them KOing and submitting each other in that fight.

One huge mistake I made was making one of my always regrettable -300 plays on Belal for a unit, just because Belal is so reliable and Augusto is quite bad technically, when I should have taken the over for a lot cheaper. Loving the Erick Montano/Brown o1.5, though, as well as the other two you mentioned.
 
Card said:
Surprised Quinonez is the underdog. He's higher ranked, more active striker, more active takedowns, 4 years younger, coming from a win.
Click to expand...

I have tons of respect for Font, though... the guy is damn good. Also I'm not quite sure about how the octagon jitters affected him, in addition to the fact that Quinonez doesn't impress me in the slightest.
 
Brick Top said:
Oh daym
Click to expand...

F it Montano suck arse and Brown beat Dwyer who i don't think is a bad fighter. He had a murderers row...Tumenov, Jouban. Brown has looked ok to me in both fights certainly a lot better than Montano did!
 
No way to tell how this card will go. I don't rate anyone on this card except MJ, Poirier, Belal, and Brunson.

Just to touch on some spots -

I think Perez gets it done by moving laterally and using low ankle kicks at range til he's able to play matador on a younger Mexican dude.

I'm picking the badass high school teacher to defeat the "3rd degree" BJJ black belt Roan Carneiro. I think Kenny's wrestling trumps whatever Roan's got left at age 38. He makes a mess out of Roan over some long dragged out exchanges and Roan will wilt like he's done so in every video I've seen of his losses. If Robert's taps Roan I almost wouldn't be surprised.

I'm super bummed out Belal is -440 even after getting dropped so many times in his debut. The only way I can squeeze any value is to play his KO line. 'Dodger' is a fitting name the way this dude be dodging a fight. I hope Belal's been doin some Rocky montage training because he's going to need to chase that red haired rooster around the cage but hopefully he's able to cut him off and finish the job.

Islam Makhachev is going to need several years to develop some striking. He can't throw a punch IMO. Just like I said about Rustam the other week, he's got nothing but a right hand. But luckily, Wade isn't a great boxer himself. I think Islam isn't at threat to get countered here if he's at punching range. I haven't even been impressed with Wade's wrestling either to be honest I think Islam edges him here.

I think Shoeface gets it done via out striking Leco or he can out grapple him pretty easily. I don't like the price of -245. I might even pass because it's expensive for such a green fighter. I don't need to convert my dollars to peanuts.

I just watched an interview with Uriah Hall and he's into his feelings again. That dude is too emotional he's going to lose the fight for himself if he don't get a damn grip. Juice should be worth the squeeze.

Small play on Benitez if he's able to keep it at kicking range and not slug it out and plus he's a dog against another bummy guy.

Main event is tough. Both guys southpaws and either Guy's usual lefty tricks are met with same stance. MJ is fast he literally has no wasted movement. Everything he does when he moves, has a rhyme and reason to it. His hips are never there for you to even find a clinch on him let alone shoot a TD. But constantly "resetting" means he's got to keep that rhythm for an entire 5 rounds unless he can finesse Dustin into a trap and counter him for a 1 shot KO. Dustin knows he's going to get hit here but he knows MJ doesn't want to brawl with him so he just needs to try and gas MJ however he can even if it means getting receiving 2 for 1 deals. Though I wouldn't completely discount Poirier's footwork either, he's not as fast but he does know how to switch stances mid combination like how I see Tony Ferg do. Gun to head, Poirier wins late but not sleeping on MJ or his odds.
 


For anyone that can translate

 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,237,183
Messages
55,474,560
Members
174,787
Latest member
Biden's Diaper

Share this page

Back
Top