UFN 101 - Whittaker vs Brunson - Australia

[Belgrade]

Two goodies from this past weekend. I don't post too much because I despise typing so we should get a video chat going and break down these fights (more so next weekend because this card isn't too great).
This weekend I like Jake Matthews ( AT -230), Chris Camozzi, and Dan Hooker. Not in love with any of them but I will throw down a couple units. Other people already listed most of the reasons but let me know if you want a deeper breakdown.

I also like Noke as a dog and Jonathan/RIchard Walsh over 2.5 for smaller bets.

 

[P4p Islam]

Do we think Taylor will let her hands go a bit more now that she isn't at such a huge reach disadvantage like in her last fight? I think this comes down to what the judges favor more, power shots or volume. Ham will probably throw way more volume but Taylor might steal rounds with a knockdown or two.

Also... Unibet can go fuck themselves, limited to like 15€. Might as well withdraw everything.

I think Ham is too good a striker to get caught by a wild haymaker, and she's pretty accurate on the feet. I see Ham sticking and moving towards a 30-27 decision. If Taylor tries to take her down, Ham has a surprising ground game paired with decent takedown defense.

Ham overall has fought better competition, while Taylor has fought in KOTC her whole career. I feel like people are overestimating Taylor because of her fight with Moroz where almost nothing happened.

 

[CR0W]

Speaking for myself I'm only doing small bets at the moment ranging from 10-50 bucks, really doesn't want to


Speaking for myself I'm only doing small bets ranging from 10-50 bucks, I ain't bothering writing them up



Lol



Fuck man I think i agree with this. Took a better look at Brunson and he is fucking huge and Whittaker .. Not so much.. Jumped the gun and threw money on Whittaker as soon as the odds came out..

As well as Whittaker is doing at MW he's a former WW but has done a great job getting wins at MW and I have to say regardless of size he does look a lot better at MW. BUT he's also never faced a well rounded monster like Brunson who also has the size advantage.

I'd be delighted if Whittaker managed to pull it off somehow but money wise I think it has to be Brunson.

 

[Brick Top]

Really don't understand the people confident in Hooker.

 

[Sillyfruit]

Really don't understand the people confident in Hooker.

I sure as fuck dont with his stand up and him being a -170 favorite.

But maybe it may be due to recency effect but Knight looked fucking amazing against that Alers.

 

[Oblivian]

EZ - why are you confident in Hooker? How do you see this going?

 

[CR0W]

Really don't understand the people confident in Hooker.

I listed my reasons in my breakdown.

Although to be fair I did say I think it will be very close and possibly a split decision.

From watching their fights it's visible that Knight is a much better BJJ player off his back than he is on top. He has decent enough takedowns but doesn't have great top control. Hooker has shown he also has a decent choke game and has escaped many dangerous ground positions himself; managing to sweep Hioki from mount was very impressive to me, as was his composure to hand fight Entwhistle when he went for the leglock as opposed to just trying to scramble away, then proceeding to batter Entwhistle with elbows.

Hooker more than likely won't initiate any takedowns knowing how dangerous Knight is on the ground. On the feet neither are world beaters but Hooker's stand up is far more polished albeit less aggressive than Knight's. Knight has a standard 1-2 for a rangy fighter and some leg kicks but is otherwise a brawler who just pushes forward and eats punches to give them. Alers doesn't have much power in his hands or even that good stand up but tagged Knight numerous times. It will be close but I personally think that Hooker takes it.

 

[Belgrade]

Really don't understand the people confident in Hooker.

More versatile on the feet
4 inch reach advantage
High Fight IQ
Moves fairly well on his feet and uses his range

Honestly from what he has showed us in the octagon he has not looked all that impressive. But imo he has more the give and hasn't shown us his true potential just yet. I thought Jim Alers was the worst fighter on the roster so Knight beating him really does not do much for me. I think hes a great grappler but fairly rudimentary on the feet. We cant ignore the fact that hes had a full time job until recently while Hooker has been busting his ass at Tiger Muay Thai which is cleary a better camp for striking than the one Knight is at.

 

[Brick Top]

I listed my reasons in my breakdown.

Although to be fair I did say I think it will be very close and possibly a split decision.

From watching their fights it's visible that Knight is a much better BJJ player off his back than he is on top. He has decent enough takedowns but doesn't have great top control. Hooker has shown he also has a decent choke game and has escaped many dangerous ground positions himself; managing to sweep Hioki from mount was very impressive to me, as was his composure to hand fight Entwhistle when he went for the leglock as opposed to just trying to scramble away, then proceeding to batter Entwhistle with elbows.

Hooker more than likely won't initiate any takedowns knowing how dangerous Knight is on the ground. On the feet neither are world beaters but Hooker's stand up is far more polished albeit less aggressive than Knight's. Knight has a standard 1-2 for a rangy fighter and some leg kicks but is otherwise a brawler who just pushes forward and eats punches to give them. Alers doesn't have much power in his hands or even that good stand up but tagged Knight numerous times. It will be close but I personally think that Hooker takes it.

You're spot on here, but like Alers Hooker doesn't have power in his strikes either and is also a LOT less active. Neither guy here has good takedowns, I think most of the fight stays standing and then I think you have to favour Knight with his volume and aggression.

FWIW I think Knight's brawling style will get him in trouble against a guy with power, but I don't think Hooker is that guy. He's too inactive and I don't think he's ever rocked a guy with strikes besides that Asian dude with the headkick. I actually think he's overrated and don't think his odds should be that short.

 

[Joseph Budden]

You're spot on here, but like Alers Hooker doesn't have power in his strikes either and is also a LOT less active. Neither guy here has good takedowns, I think most of the fight stays standing and then I think you have to favour Knight with his volume and aggression.

FWIW I think Knight's brawling style will get him in trouble against a guy with power, but I don't think Hooker is that guy. He's too inactive and I don't think he's ever rocked a guy with strikes besides that Asian dude with the headkick. I actually think he's overrated and don't think his odds should be that short.

Hooker is not A LOT less active than Alers.....

 

[Brick Top]

More versatile on the feet
4 inch reach advantage
High Fight IQ
Moves fairly well on his feet and uses his range

Honestly from what he has showed us in the octagon he has not looked all that impressive. But imo he has more the give and hasn't shown us his true potential just yet. I thought Jim Alers was the worst fighter on the roster so Knight beating him really does not do much for me. I think hes a great grappler but fairly rudimentary on the feet. We cant ignore the fact that hes had a full time job until recently while Hooker has been busting his ass at Tiger Muay Thai which is cleary a better camp for striking than the one Knight is at.

I can't agree with Hooker having more diversity on the feet. Knight has a better jab, throws more volume, better leg kicks and a really nice oblique kick as well. Watching tape all I saw from Hooker is a lot of footwork but hardly any activity. He doesn't really commit to strikes.

 

[CR0W]

You're spot on here, but like Alers Hooker doesn't have power in his strikes either and is also a LOT less active. Neither guy here has good takedowns, I think most of the fight stays standing and then I think you have to favour Knight with his volume and aggression.

FWIW I think Knight's brawling style will get him in trouble against a guy with power, but I don't think Hooker is that guy. He's too inactive and I don't think he's ever rocked a guy with strikes besides that Asian dude with the headkick. I actually think he's overrated and don't think his odds should be that short.

With Knight's low guard there's a very high chance he gets blasted with a headkick too. All depends on whether the judges score cleaner strikes or aggression, hence why I think it could be a split decision.

Hioki isn't just some Asian dude haha!

 

[Card]

Hooker - I've been in the gym since, I'm a whole different level, I've done alot of film study, he's poor fundamentally, he doesn't have the wrestling, doesn't have top pressure, I see holes, I will outclass him, a flawless performance, hit and not get hit, I see a title in my future

 

[Sillyfruit]

With Knight's low guard there's a very high chance he gets blasted with a headkick too. All depends on whether the judges score cleaner strikes or aggression, hence why I think it could be a split decision.

Hioki isn't just some Asian dude haha!

Low guard? But he keeps distance well. Imo he manages distance better than Hooker. You can keep a low guard if you have an excellent jab and measure distance correctly.

 

[Brick Top]

Hooker is not A LOT less active than Alers.....

I'm going off all of Hooker's UFC fights whereas you're going off one Alers fight where he was hesitant because of Knight's constant pressure and volume.

Watch the tape on Hooker and tell me he's not really inactive in most of his fights.

 

[Brick Top]

With Knight's low guard there's a very high chance he gets blasted with a headkick too. All depends on whether the judges score cleaner strikes or aggression, hence why I think it could be a split decision.

Hioki isn't just some Asian dude haha!

I know people love Hioki but his best win was over Hominick in 2007, I've never really given Hooker that much credit for that win.

I don't think Knight is going to give Hooker enough space to stay in kicking range to be honest. All I can picture is Knight pressuring the whole fight with volume and Hooker being inactive.

 

[Brick Top]

I don't know why Hooker is acting like Knight needs wresting and top control to beat him.

 

[CR0W]

Low guard? But he keeps distance well. Imo he manages distance better than Hooker. You can keep a low guard if you have an excellent jab and measure distance correctly.

I'm sorry but Knight does not have an "excellent jab", there's very few who do in MMA and he certainly isn't one of them.

He is primarily a kicker, the fact he won some of the striking exchanges with Alers has gone to peoples heads a bit.

Also he literally walked forward with his hands down trying to chase Alers down numerous times, he certainly isn't great at keeping distance, I'm really not sure what people are watching.

 

[Sillyfruit]

I'm sorry but Knight does not have an "excellent jab", there's very few who do in MMA and he certainly isn't one of them.

He is primarily a kicker, the fact he won some of the striking exchanges with Alers has gone to peoples heads a bit.

Also he literally walked forward with his hands down trying to chase Alers down numerous times, he certainly isn't great at keeping distance, I'm really not sure what people are watching.

Sorry i never said he had an excellent jab.

I meant generally if you have an excellent jab, you can keep a low guard.

 

[Card]

I've got better striking, I've got more hunger, fire, my hands are dangerous, I'll be too fast, I will pick him apart