A prototypical wrestle–boxer, Cody Garbrandt is a heavy-handed slugger with tight boxing technique and a solid background in amateur wrestling. A plus athlete, Cody predominately uses his wrestling in reverse to stay up right where he can throw hands with his opponent. Having a boxing background, Cody accumulated a sterling record of 32-1 as an amateur. Whilst a brutal power puncher, Cody is not just a brawler but rather a skilled pugilist with excellent fundamentals. Possessing tight hooks and stellar counterpunching, at 135 pounds Garbrandt has the type of fight ending power that is a rarity in his neck of the woods. Constantly on his front foot, Cody is marching his man down and trying to engage them into a fire fight. Sporting a flawless 10-0 record with nine career knockouts, this has been a sound strategy thus far. In fact, Cody enters tonight's championship bout having dusted his last three opponents in succession thus placing him in contention to rip the BW strap off of Cruz's shoulder tonight.
Meanwhile Dominick Cruz is the best bantamweight to ever lace up a pair of 4 ounce gloves and now that he is injury free, he's set on making up for lost time. Already having a spectacular 2016 where he defeated TJ Dillashaw and Urijah Faber en route to winning and defending the 135 belt, Cruz will aim to end the year in top form. Incredibly, Cruz has not lost a single fight since 2007 when he was caught early in a guillotine by Faber. Since then, the fleet footed champion has been absolutely dominant.
The speed and quickness of Cruz make him all but impossible to hit and if you do lay a glove on him, it's most often a terse glance. Cruz’s uncanny ability to zig and zag while popping his foe with strikes has made him a nightmare matchup for anyone. A cerebral fighter, Cruz often seems to be playing chess while his opponent is playing checkers. Sticking and moving Dominick is ostensibly a ghost out there. Worse still, once you think you have a bead on him in the striking department, he quickly changes things up and uses his top level wrestling to transition into a successful blast double leg takedown. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.
While Cody has a chance to catch Dominick early and put him to sleep with his heavy hands, I find it to be highly unlikely that such scenario present itself. For as good a boxer that Cody is, the one problem he has demonstrated is an inability to cut angles properly. Instead, The Team Alpha Male product does a lot of chasing out there. This is a major liability with him facing someone as nimble as Cruz.
Ergo, I anticipate Cody chasing and swinging at a lot of air while simultaneously getting punched in the face and dumped on his ass a lot. With the exception of a well matched TJ Dillashaw, there hasn't been anyone who has been able to solve the Dominick Cruz conundrum of yet. That said, I don't believe Cody is going to be the first to do so.
Look for Cody to become increasingly frustrated as the fight wears on while Dominick does what he does best — hit and take no damage in return. I believe that Cruz should be a 4-1 favorite so I like playing them straight up and as a leg in a parlay.
Pick: Cruz by decision