UFC Fox 23 - Pena vs Shevchenko - Denver

[Slohog]

I made a fairly long post that was unnecessary sarcastic here but deleted it. Figured that people can play however they want and it's not strictly in my interest to give advice about that stuff.

Can we go back to talking fights now?

 

[BigNasty]

Take what I'm about to say constructively:

This is exactly my qualm w parlays. firstly, you're essentially killing your own plays by throwing mas in one and Cerrone in another. That's insanity. Even if it's a $5 parlay, it's equivalent to throwing 5 on Cerrone and 5 on masvidal. YOU'RE LOSING YOUR HARD EARNED MONEY.

Secondly- you also said you throw fights that you're not sure about in parlays. Sorry but what's wrong w just passing on fights you're not sure of? No one is putting a gun to your head and making you bet every fight. It's fine if you don't, hell, it's probably gonna save you a great deal of BR if you pass on those fights.

Parlays facilitate bad decisions. I don't mean to call you out, bud. Really really hope you put those 5-6 leg parlays in your rear view and save your money. All this talk of it being a negligible amount is fluff. It's your money. Don't throw it don't the gutter thinking it's not a big deal.

I'll take what you said constructively as long as you do the same, bud!

- The Mas/Cerrone example I used was a bad example. I'll switch up some fights so I have more possibilities. Ex. Cerrone + Pena in one and Mas + Shev in another. I only do this on multi leg parlays - 5 legs or more. Once in a while I will do opposite sides for one fight - I know one of them will lose but one of them will win. I understand I'm paying a little juice here.. Similar to how many others hedge/buy out of single fights. However, I may only add the 2nd fighter after odds have changed in my favor.
- I didn't say I randomly throw in fights in not sure about. I do think being a winning parlay bettor needs to have underdogs though. I WILL throw an UD I wasn't sure about into some parlays. I don't bet every fight. If I see value on an UD I will throw it into some legs of my parlays.
- like I said I have done very well with this method. My single bets pay for my parlays + some profit. I use parlays as a way to exponentially better my good events. I don't stake a lot on any event and have won a lot.
- Again, you are dismissing the hedge value of parlays. Everything is an equation. Parlay hedging can guarantee a win vs. some hedges I see here on single bets, which just pay juice a reduce risk/exposure.

I'm a consultant for one of the worlds biggest banks. I'm not an idiot and understand the numbers. I also see how some despise the way I do it it. It works for me though, Bud.

 

[BigNasty]

To your hedging comment:

Let's say you have a parlay of Cerrone and Ngganou (-155 and -400 respectively). The latter fight happens first. The parlay pays +105 and you decide to put 100 on the fight. Let's say Ngganou wins and you suddenly hear that Cerrone slipped and hurt his back. You go and try to hedge w Masvidal +135. The perfect hedge is an $87.23 bet on Masvidal, which will make you profit $17.77 no matter who wins the fight. Essentially, you void the second half of your parlay

But wait... how much money would you have won if you just bet $100 on Ngganou? 100 at -400 odds pays 25. Unrealized 7%

So no, you can't really hedge well w parlays without being penalized

I never include any huge favorites in any of my parlays. I also would never hedge a 2 leg parlay.

 

[iGnP]

I'll take what you said constructively as long as you do the same, bud!

- The Mas/Cerrone example I used was a bad example. I'll switch up some fights so I have more possibilities. Ex. Cerrone + Pena in one and Mas + Shev in another. I only do this on multi leg parlays - 5 legs or more. Once in a while I will do opposite sides for one fight - I know one of them will lose but one of them will win. I understand I'm paying a little juice here.. Similar to how many others hedge/buy out of single fights. However, I may only add the 2nd fighter after odds have changed in my favor.
- I didn't say I randomly throw in fights in not sure about. I do think being a winning parlay bettor needs to have underdogs though. I WILL throw an UD I wasn't sure about into some parlays. I don't bet every fight. If I see value on an UD I will throw it into some legs of my parlays.
- like I said I have done very well with this method. My single bets pay for my parlays + some profit. I use parlays as a way to exponentially better my good events. I don't stake a lot on any event and have won a lot.
- Again, you are dismissing the hedge value of parlays. Everything is an equation. Parlay hedging can guarantee a win vs. some hedges I see here on single bets, which just pay juice a reduce risk/exposure.

I'm a consultant for one of the worlds biggest banks. I'm not an idiot and understand the numbers. I also see how some despise the way I do it it. It works for me though, Bud.

Can you give me an example of hedging having value within a parlay that you wouldn't have if it were a straight bet

 

[HeDucking]

It seems a little bit weird to put two opposing fighters in a parlays consisting of 5+ fighters. Is that really a winning formula?

 

[iGnP]

It seems a little bit weird to put two opposing fighters in a parlay consisting of 5+ fighters. Is that really a winning formula?

 

[lefontes]

Like a lot Shev double chance by tko/dec @2.10 on bet365. Imo shes not submit Pena, shes win by tko after Pena gasses or by decision.

 

[wack3d]

Can anyone fill me in on Jordan Johnson? I wonder why he's so heavily favored.

Who is he?

division 1 all american wrestler that should be enough to handle frankenstein even though his standup is trash there is also the fact that frakenstein have trash cardio and came to denver late while johnson looked fine after 5 rounds in his last fight and been in denver for a while

 

[raketmannen]

Maybe read my post? If you roll over each winning bet, you make the same amount. $300 on team A wins 600. $900 on team b wins $1800. $2700 on team C wins $5400

Profit from bet a = 600
Profit from bet b = 1800
Profit from bet c = 5400

Add them up and what do you get? 7800! The same amount you would have gotten if you parlayed. Derp

But you risk $2700 instead of 300, no difference?

 

[BigNasty]

Can you give me an example of hedging having value within a parlay that you wouldn't have if it were a straight bet

I have many examples. This is one of the reasons that parlays with MMA are different than other sports. Other sports often start at the same time, or before the next contest ends. So some may parlay football games that start at the same time but they can't be hedged - they lose 1 of 6 legs and are screwed. With MMA they start one after another, so if I have a 4+ leg parlay that comes down to the last event I can guarantee a win. I also COULD have bet on the first fight and roll my winnings over after winning but I don't like risking a large amount/everything in that way. Often times I'm single betting the fights too.
I've had countless examples of parlays that came down to the last 2 legs where I was able to hedge and guarantee a big win, all from the original low stake/risk. How are you able to guarantee yourself a win with a single bet? Now that I'd like to know!!!

 

[Officer_Brown]

Kimball looks like a Roy Nelson's second coming to LHW division. what the fuck lol. Okay hands but white/blue belt on the mat. Fucking camozzi threw him around like a bag of potatoes. And this is one fucking last time but I made a bet on de Lima. He is a fucking meathead but he should win this one. Honestly if Lima finds a way to lose this one too I hope he gets cut and I never have to see his face again in any mma circuit.

 

[iGnP]

I have many examples. This is one of the reasons that parlays with MMA are different than other sports. Other sports often start at the same time, or before the next contest ends. So some may parlay football games that start at the same time but they can't be hedged - they lose 1 of 6 legs and are screwed. With MMA they start one after another, so if I have a 4+ leg parlay that comes down to the last event I can guarantee a win. I also COULD have bet on the first fight and roll my winnings over after winning but I don't like risking a large amount/everything in that way. Often times I'm single betting the fights too.
I've had countless examples of parlays that came down to the last 2 legs where I was able to hedge and guarantee a big win, all from the original low stake/risk. How are you able to guarantee yourself a win with a single bet? Now that I'd like to know!!!

When you hedge out of a parlay, you lose value on your prior leg winnings. Show me a ticket of a parlay w the hedge and I will show you what I mean. No hypotheticals

 

[iGnP]

But you risk $2700 instead of 300, no difference?

Risk 2700? How so? If any of team a b or c lose, you're only down 300

 

[Slohog]

@BigNasty just out of curiosity, the consulting you do for that bank, does it have anything at all to do with math?

 

[Sham5916910]

See, if you're doing it to bypass a limit restriction then I can understand why you do it. does the bookie have a limit on your parlays?

I bet large amounts so online is difficult for me. I've had to find workarounds so i have to parlay.

 

[Sham5916910]

I just watched one of his fights. Who the fuck are these Joe Johnsons and Bobby smiths? These guys are are not UFC caliber. They suck man.

If there's something I don't know about this guy, please let me know because the bet is Frankenstein as bad as he is too.

Hes a div 1 wrestler from Iowa. Hes trained at Power MMA, The Lab and Vitor brought him in for a few camps. He has now settled at Victory MMA in SD and mixes in time at Alliance.

His penultimate fight he finished a decent regional guy in r3 but didn't look great and seemed to slow. But his last fight he looked real good over 5 rounds cardio looked great real wrestling clinic. He is a terrible stylistic matchup for Frank. Frank has awful awful tdd and awful awful cardio to go with it. He also flops to his back when taken down. Johnson arrived in Denver three weeks ago Frank a week ago. I was hoping to get Johnson around evens i would have unloaded 5 units. Subsequently -200 is too juiced for me albeit i am still tempted to throw one or two units on him at that price. Biggest concern is UFC debut.

 

[Basek]

Like a lot Shev double chance by tko/dec @2.10 on bet365. Imo shes not submit Pena, shes win by tko after Pena gasses or by decision.

This is great line , I'll hit that

 

[BigNasty]

@BigNasty just out of curiosity, the consulting you do for that bank, does it have anything at all to do with math?

Good one slow hog! So considering your earlier post - is this a relatively short, unnecessary sarcastic comment that you didn't delete?

I'll actually be a sport and answer your backhanded comment though. No, it is not math/finance/accounting. It is mainly data and analytics for new projects/software.

Like I said earlier, I know betting both sides pays juice but it also guarantees some legs don't lose. However, I rarely parlay both sides. If I do it is a fight that is close to even and a parlay with 5+ legs. I see many people here buying out of their action and paying ALOT more juice than I do for my 3-5 dollar parlay bet, lol.

 

[Basek]

Valentina Ko/TKO round 5 @ 41.00 hmm

 

[Slohog]

Good one slow hog! So considering your earlier post - is this a relatively short, unnecessary sarcastic comment that you didn't delete?

I'll actually be a sport and answer your backhanded comment though. No, it is not math/finance/accounting. It is mainly data and analytics for new projects/software.

Like I said earlier, I know betting both sides pays juice but it also guarantees some legs don't lose. However, I rarely parlay both sides. If I do it is a fight that is close to even and a parlay with 5+ legs. I see many people here buying out of their action and paying ALOT more juice than I do for my 3-5 dollar parlay bet, lol.

No, my sarcastic comments was more on topic. This was just curiosity.