UFN 104 - Bermudez vs Korean Zombie - Houston

[Card]

Tanaka from -230 to -140... and dropping

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Grasso x sub +800
I think that this is worth a flier. Alexa has a very active guard game where she's always throwing up triangles and armbars and nearly caught Inoue in one of them who is an excellent grappler. If Herrig takes her down don't be shocked if she gets subbed. Kinda like a Benson to Showtime quick sub on the mat. Value here IMO

 

[wack3d]

Grasso x sub +800
I think that this is worth a flier. Alexa has a very active guard game where she's always throwing up triangles and armbars and nearly caught Inoue in one of them who is an excellent grappler. If Herrig takes her down don't be shocked if she gets subbed. Kinda like a Benson to Showtime quick sub on the mat. Value here IMO

i like it and the price just skyrocketed to +1200 lol

 

[Joseph Budden]

Another juicy sub line is Blaydes +850. You know he's going to take Milstead down, so when that's his highly likely strategy it's a pretty absurd line

 

[MMA Goodfella]

torres RD3 +1800 on BM.. taking a shot.

Yep..thx for pointing it out

 

[weedreference]

Andrade could very well finish her early and quick. I like her chances in finishing hill with a sub or a TKO/KO in 12.5 mins. Covers if Hill finishes too. The under at plus money for 2 and a half rounds is excellent.
Andrade would finish her if she had the guillotine, her squeeze is no joke.

I think she'll have a tougher time in this spot. It's easier to wade in with punches vs. these tall chicks with no movement like Penne and Calderwood. Hill will be better able to play the matador with her, which will also make takedowns tougher since Andrade only has takedowns from the clinch. Hill's clinch is very technical with her framing and angling off on her sprawls, so it won't be a cakewalk to keep hold of her. And, once down, her guard is the strongest asset of her grappling game. Not to mention she has better cardio, so if it doesn't come early, it probably isn't coming.

 

[HeDucking]

Another juicy sub line is Blaydes +850. You know he's going to take Milstead down, so when that's his highly likely strategy it's a pretty absurd line

I would think some GnP is more likely if he took him down, he hasnt got a single sub win.

 

[NinjaCat456]

Ok guys as predominantly a parlay player I'm echoing the thoughts of guys like sham & lion itt; I'm taking the cowards way out. Just way too many non-elite fighters to be trusting at -200 or above and I see quite a bit of bed-shitting occurring (as usual). You're just asking for trouble when you've got Anthony fucking Hamilton propping up all your parlays.

Sometimes it pays to be a pussy in this game, gonna save my BR for an event I've got strong leans on.

BOL guys hope all your bets cash.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I would think some GnP is more likely if he took him down, he hasnt got a single sub win.

Definitely more likely but I have a rule where if the line is this juicy and you know the guy is gonna take it to the ground I'll take a shot. Only .3u for me.

 

[piglord]

• Tecia Torres - to win in Round 3 @ 14/1(Round Betting - Match)
• Alexa Grasso - To Win By Submission @ 12/1(Method of Victory - Match)
• Anthony Hamilton - By KO/TKO/DQ or Submission @ 11/10(Double Chance - Match)

Multiple Type: TrebleStake: 10.00 Possible Return: 4095.00

 

[HeDucking]

Anyone Like Ricardo Ramos decision at +650? He's a finisher and works for it but Tanaka hasn't been finished and only loses close decisions. More often than not, this fight reaches decision.

EDIT: Kinda large but 0.5 units.

 

[HeDucking]

Anyone Like Ricardo Ramos decision at +650? He's a finisher and works for it but Tanaka hasn't been finished and only loses close decisions. More often than not, this fight reaches decision.

Heck fight reaches decision is +110. Im on that for a unit. Maybe 2.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

My biggest play was Ramos +165 but only because of the value. I do think this fight goes o1.5 unless Ramos clubs him.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Heck fight reaches decision is +110. Im on that for a unit. Maybe 2.

Yeah this bet is one of my bigger risks on the card. Tanaka survived Yahya's grappling, and while Ramos is more athletic and seems more opportunistic where as Yahya is more reliant on his skills, thats still enough for me to believe Tanaka avoids the sub. Think hes tough and moves in and out well enough Ramos won't KO him. And as far as Tanaka is concerned, hes a decision machine (EDIT looked at his Sherdog page and his last 6 fights are decisions. Confidence increase.) No real power in his strikes, and on the mat he doesn't hold positions very well and isn't aggressive with subs.

Definitely think the line is off and its a solid bet.

That Ramos dec line is also one of six in a small hail mary round robin I have. Hes likely to be the aggressor and his instincts look potentially superior to Tanaka's kind of low fight IQ so I could see him just out work Tanaka here. Was gonna stab him as a dog but opted with the decision line which I think is the best bet on this fight for sure.

 

[HeDucking]

Yeah this bet is one of my bigger risks on the card. Tanaka survived Yahya's grappling, and while Ramos is more athletic and seems more opportunistic where as Yahya is more reliant on his skills, thats still enough for me to believe Tanaka avoids the sub. Think hes tough and moves in and out well enough Ramos won't KO him. And as far as Tanaka is concerned, hes a decision machine (EDIT looked at his Sherdog page and his last 6 fights are decisions. Confidence increase.) No real power in his strikes, and on the mat he doesn't hold positions very well and isn't aggressive with subs.

Definitely think the line is off and its a solid bet.

That Ramos dec line is also one of six in a small hail mary round robin I have. Hes likely to be the aggressor and his instincts look potentially superior to Tanaka's kind of low fight IQ so I could see him just out work Tanaka here. Was gonna stab him as a dog but opted with the decision line which I think is the best bet on this fight for sure.

Yup, Ill stay on it for 2 units. Its damn BW and more often than not reaches decision. Line is good here. Surprised at why its still plus money.

 

[Caicara]

Anyone Like Ricardo Ramos decision at +650? He's a finisher and works for it but Tanaka hasn't been finished and only loses close decisions. More often than not, this fight reaches decision.

EDIT: Kinda large but 0.5 units.

I got it at +750. Good value. Grappling fests often go to Decisions and Tanaka isn't really easy to finish.

 

[Caicara]

By the way, I just posted my good value bets on page 35 after checking bet365

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Wow 12 units braver than me! If you look at Ham's record he has never lost to anyone bad he's just a mediocre HW and this guy isn't even a mediocre MW. He also has a ridiculously high takedowns defended percentage. I've got 1.5 units on Blaydes + Grasso. I was going to add another few but i might switch the rest to Ham + Grasso.

If Hamilton loses this fight, I will eat my hat. There are so many flakes on this card though it's hard to trust your money anywhere. I just don't see how Hamilton loses fight to a natural middleweight taking the tilt on just two weeks notice with no knock out power, terrible wrestling, limited striking and pitiable conditioning. Meanwhile, Hamilton is 50+ pounds heavier, isn't a fish out of water on the mat owning a BJJ brown belt of his own, wrestled collegiately and trains at one of the top five mixed martial arts facilities in the world Jackson-Winkle MMA. Again, Hamilton would really have to slip on a banana peel to find a way to lose this fight. I mean, Hamilton trains daily with fighters that for exceed anything that his Brazilian opponent can begin to offer.

 

[Caicara]

If Hamilton loses this fight, I will eat my hat. There are so many flakes on this card though it's hard to trust your money anywhere. I just don't see how Hamilton loses fight to a natural middleweight taking the tilt on just two weeks notice with no knock out power, terrible wrestling, limited striking and pitiable conditioning. Meanwhile, Hamilton is 50+ pounds heavier, isn't a fish out of water on the mat owning a BJJ brown belt of his own, wrestled collegiately and trains at one of the top five mixed martial arts facilities in the world Jackson-Winkle MMA. Again, Hamilton would really have to slip on a banana peel to find a way to lose this fight. I mean, Hamilton trains daily with fighters that for exceed anything that his Brazilian opponent can begin to offer.

Isn't he American?

EDIT: He is Brazilian. Who da fook is that guy.
EDIT 2: I know who da fook he is. He lost to Cory Hendricks on TUF23. Ha.

 

[Stunna77]

Isn't he American?

EDIT: He is Brazilian. Who da fook is that guy.
EDIT 2: I know who da fook he is. He lost to Cory Hendricks on TUF23. Ha.

Confidence increase Hamilton lol. Im with Goodfella, big on Ham. I get the skepticism, but its not like he's a big favorite over another average HW, he's a moderate favorite over an average MW or at best, LHW.