http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/full-ufc-209-betting-odds/
I’d say this would have been a laughable booking at any other time in these fighters’ UFC careers, but Dan Kelly has only been in the UFC since 2014, and Rashad Evans has not won a fight since then, only competing twice over that period of time. Seeing Evans not medically cleared to fight in New York or Toronto just a couple of months ago has to give you significant pause if you’re thinking of backing him here. For me however, that thought never crossed my mind. Kelly has been one of the most profitable fighters to bet on in the UFC over the past few years, and this could be another opportunity for him to do so. Skill-wise, Kelly is outmatched, but that’s nothing new for him, and there are so many red flags surrounding Evans these days. An unclear training situation with the breakup of the Blackzillians, an unclear health situation, all of the known injuries he’s suffered, nearly a year layoff, age (and the fact that it’s showing far more with him than with the older Kelly), the fact that he hasn’t scored more than one takedown in a fight in over five years and remains woefully inactive on the feet. All of those things might add up to me taking a shot on Dan Kelly to see if the old man can do it one more time.
It’s hard to criticize Lando Vannata too much for his run in the UFC thus far, but very early on in the Makdessi fight nearly everything Makdessi threw, landed. Obviously that all got erased less than two minutes into the fight. What’s going to happen against a very decorated and talented striker in Teymur, who can have success with many of the same fundamental techniques? If Vannata doesn’t land the big shot will he get broken down as Teymur’s other opponents have, or can he find another way in this fight? Will Vannata just land something huge again and none of this will matter? That’s a real possibility as well. Still, I think the hype on Vannata might be a bit too much for where he’s at right now, and if this is the parlay piece on the card everyone uses, the line could get to a point where a shot on Teymur could certainly be warranted.
The most telling thing on Daniel Spitz’ resume is that he fought ‘Cabbage’ Correira… in 2016. Something tells me that dude should not still be getting fights. Despite that, ‘Cabbage’ has been the only fighter thus far to go to decision with Spitz (or even make it out of the first round), and it was good to see Spitz prove himself as more than just a heavyweight who finishes everyone early or gasses. He’s 6’7 and uses his length decently on the outside with kicks and straight punches, and also gets into the clinch and does good work while there and on his exit. That should all serve him well against Godbeer, who got mauled in the clinch by Cheick Kongo and clipped by Justin Ledet at range before being submitted. Spitz also seems to be decent on the ground, although I haven’t seen as much grappling from him against solid competition to really make that determination. Regardless, I think he can score at range, work Godbeer over in the clinch, and likely has an advantage on the ground in this one, so I think he picks up the win in his UFC debut.
One of the new patron saints of #FGF is back, as Luis Henrique takes on Marcin Tybura. Henrique has the perfect #FGF combination of durability and a grinding grappling skillset that seemingly leads to his fights going over their total regardless of if he wins or loses. Tybura is yet to be taken down in the UFC, so I can see this one stalling out in the clinch a bit early, and then coming down to who has more left in the tank. Tybura still looked good late against Timmy Johnson, and he is the more skilled striker in this matchup, so I could see him outscoring Henrique on the feet late if he can keep it there. It’s a tough fight to call for a side, but I do think it goes over, even if the price isn’t ideal.
This is why guys like Darren Elkins are in the UFC. Provide a stiff test to the up-and-coming prospects, but ultimately lose because the athleticism simply isn’t there. Bektic will be worlds faster than Elkins on the feet, and stronger in the grappling exchanges. It will probably get more competitive as it goes, since that will close the gap between the two physically, but I just don’t see that being enough for Elkins to squeak out with a win.
Luke Sanders and Iuri Alcantara is an excellent fight, but I think it will mark the end of the 36-year-old Alcantara’s days as a top 15 bantamweight. The big difference here will be pace and volume. Alcantara is as dangerous as anyone at bantamweight on a strike-by-strike basis, but when Sanders is outthrowing him 5-to-1, I don’t think that’s going to matter. An historically durable fighter, I could even see this being the first time in his career Alcantara gets stopped by strikes. Once you hit that mid-30’s mark in these lighter divisions, the fall is swift.
This could be where Paul Craig willing to accept being on the bottom could come back to haunt him. Tyson Pedro is a solid grappler in his own right, and I still don’t think we’re at a stage in MMA judging where you’re going to win many rounds from your back, even if Craig is throwing up all sorts of submissions. That said, Pedro has never been deep in a fight, and this is his first fight outside of Australia, so fatigue may become a factor, and we saw how keen Craig was to put Frank Waisten away once he showed signs of fatigue.
Albert Morales wants to strike. New addition to the bantamweight division, Andre Soukhamthath wants to strike. This could very quickly turn into a fun one, but I give Soukhamthath the slight edge on the feet, so have to favor him to win even though Morales has the UFC experience on him.
Cynthia Calvillo was pretty impressive in her last appearance on LFA, and I think her style really suits her well against Amanda Cooper. Cooper struggled with the wrestling of Tatiana Suarez (who is a better wrestler than Calvillo, mind you), but I think more than anything she doesn’t react particularly well when her opponent is dictating the fight. Against Anna Elmose, she looked alright when Elmose was doing nothing, but seemed unsure on the rare occasions where she was being pressured.