UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas

[JDB]

How about a change of subject for a few hours.

Sergio +300 seems absurd especially as Cejudo's MMA wrestling is not good. Discuss.

For a gold medalist Cejudo has not been impressive, but I'm not sure I'm willing to bet on Sergio.

It wouldn't surprise me if Cejudo gets TKO or ends up having to fight at catchweight or both.

 

[piglord]

How about a change of subject for a few hours.

Sergio +300 seems absurd especially as Cejudo's MMA wrestling is not good. Discuss.

i'm on sergio, i'm not playing the value i think he will win using his jab and distance management.

cejudo could wrestlefuck but i've never thought his wrestling is that well integrated into his overall game. plus, with midget body mechanics, it's easier to stand up when you're floored. sergio looks like he's getting better fight to fight, and at 23 i think the best is yet to come - plus he knows everyone trys to take him down so you have to figure defencive wrestling is a large part of his training.

i favour sergio to win a close but decisive decision.

i hit sergio at +250 and looks like i jumped too early, i might have to add more.

 

[Slohog]

The thing I don't get about Luca is why this is happening now, what has changed? Did he get a bunch of big customers last months? Are the bookies paying attention to him and changing the lines in advance? Cause it wasn't like this a few months ago, right?

Just a random anomaly? He's been around forever sooner or later line moment probably happens to follow whatever he says for a couple of picks out of statistical necessity.

 

[ill800]

Just rewatched jds stipe 1

Very close fight. I had it 48-47 jds. 5th rd was close.

Stipe won the first two rounds and was handling jds pretty well implementing the Cain strategy. He completely gassed after that and didn't recover. He still Managed to hurt jds and make it close being completely exhausted.

I'm still on stipe. I have to watch some more recent fights to see if his cardio has improved. Luca said that he's a fire fighter and doesn't train mma full time. He says he's seen no improvements from stipe since that fight

 

[ill800]

Trying to rewatch jds vs rothwell but fight pass just sucks. It's far superior on my iPhone smh

From what I remember jds looked good but rothwell had a horrible gameplan and was not aggressive at all. He let junior box him up.

If stipes cardio holds up he probably finishes him

Edit: fight pass wasn't working on phone cause it was open on tv. Another smh

 

[Roads55]

wow, every underdog bar pettis is shortening for this event

 

[Roads55]

Wonder if I'm being too greedy waiting for Frankie and JJ's lines to get even better

I think your spot on, money coming in on andrade and yair

 

[Tebowned]

Just rewatched jds stipe 1

Very close fight. I had it 48-47 jds. 5th rd was close.

Stipe won the first two rounds and was handling jds pretty well implementing the Cain strategy. He completely gassed after that and didn't recover. He still Managed to hurt jds and make it close being completely exhausted.

I'm still on stipe. I have to watch some more recent fights to see if his cardio has improved. Luca said that he's a fire fighter and doesn't train mma full time. He says he's seen no improvements from stipe since that fight

I remember live betting Stipe @ great odds and JDS got a second wind and came back.

 

[Monster Meat]

How about a change of subject for a few hours.

Sergio +300 seems absurd especially as Cejudo's MMA wrestling is not good. Discuss.

I agree that the line is too high to bet straight but if you take cejudo by dec (I locked in at -117) that has some value in a fight he should control.

 

[Monster Meat]

ok yea, not to keep spamming, just consolidating:

1.15u stipe -115

1.5u andrade +150
1.4u andrade-jj O3.5 -140

0.725u edgar -145

3u maia +100

1u alvarez +100
0.34u alvarez DEC +294

1.9u cejudo-pettis O2.5 -190

this card is incredible. wonder which fights will get canceled in the next couple weeks

nice odds on the Andrade jj over and cejudo pettis over

 

[ill800]

So stipes fight with mark hunt showed much improved cardio.

Jds looked better and faster against rothwell but rothwell didn't test him with any clinching or wrestling. No takedown threat. Jds could stay in his comfort zone. His movement looked good

Still favor stipe to finish him

 

[TimCoreCombat]

How about a change of subject for a few hours.

Sergio +300 seems absurd especially as Cejudo's MMA wrestling is not good. Discuss.

Henry is still a pretty good wrestler and the Pettis' are terrible wrestlers. Cejudo is -300 on my book right now and that seems right to me.

 

[ill800]

Henry is still a pretty good wrestler and the Pettis' are terrible wrestlers. Cejudo is -300 on my book right now and that seems right to me.

To be far his tdd is better than his brothers. Don't know if that's saying much though.

31% vs 71% cejudos takedowns vs Sergio's defense

If Sergio can keep the fight standing he wins. Doesn't look like he's fought many wrestlers, especially on the level of cejudo

 

[Jamah]

I'm not the one obsessed with following him. I have no clue what his plays are every week. Others seem to be able to give you a daily update.

I have nothing against him.
I inform when he places his bets because it affects the line and we can take advantage of the line movement
It isn't personal.
If he is succesful, good for him.

 

[Stunna77]

Will be on Sergio, just waiting to see how far his line will go. Probably be on his Dec line depending on the difference. I favor Cejudo and he looked good against JB, but Sergio has a 5 inch reach advantage, is improving every fight, and can easily win a decision should he be able to keep it standing. Line is getting wacky.

 

[Oblivian]

I have nothing against him.
I inform when he places his bets because it affects the line and we can take advantage of the line movement
It isn't personal.
If he is succesful, good for him.

That's basically my philosophy with him as well. I just find it funny how successful he's become with it to move lines considerably. People have been hating on him for years. Props to him for making a good business move with it. Is he the best bettor in the world? I doubt it, but I have no idea. To me, I'm far more impressed by someone who can build a business than someone who can predict fights right.

This same type of hating goes on in the powerlifting/fitness world. Guys like Alan Thrall and Omar Isuf get super popular and make good money their popularity through youtube and social media. They aren't even close to the elite in lifting, which pisses a lot of people off. Who cares - they've marketed a product that the general public buys. That is their goal, which again, is far more impressive and worthwhile to me than moving a lot of weight.

 

[Sham5916910]

Does cejudo go for tds tho? And if he does can he keep sergio grounded? Im starting tape on this one tonight. All i remember is a smattering of td attempts from cejudo a lot that seemed to fail especially against chico. I initially thought cejudo would be one leg for me but @ almost -400 no way. Ive also seen that pettis has a 5 inch reach adv thats huge at fly, and hes only 23 i thought he was older. He would be unbeaten too if not for brain farts in fights he was winning. But i do remember him brain farting against moraga too just as i thought he may have left that all behind. If moraga didnt go for a heelhook in r3 he would have nicked that dec. Cejudo fought much better against jb but was that cos he was angry or has he turned the corner? I bet on cejudo against chico and formiga and both fights were much closer than i anticipated. Maybe my mind will change after tape but im not feeling all the cejudo confidence and -300 being accurate.

 

[Stunna77]

iirc Cejudo has been using his wrestling more to set up his striking in recent bouts as opposed to commiting to takedown attempts. This could be sucessful against Sergio, but I do think Cejudo needs to ground Sergio at some point to avoid a close fight. That reach advantage without a takedown threat will be tough to overcome.

 

[Jamah]

That's basically my philosophy with him as well. I just find it funny how successful he's become with it to move lines considerably. People have been hating on him for years. Props to him for making a good business move with it. Is he the best bettor in the world? I doubt it, but I have no idea. To me, I'm far more impressed by someone who can build a business than someone who can predict fights right.

This same type of hating goes on in the powerlifting/fitness world. Guys like Alan Thrall and Omar Isuf get super popular and make good money their popularity through youtube and social media. They aren't even close to the elite in lifting, which pisses a lot of people off. Who cares - they've marketed a product that the general public buys. That is their goal, which again, is far more impressive and worthwhile to me than moving a lot of weight.

It's a bit different. Alan and Omar are hated because they get more recognition than elite lifters.
Luca is hated because he has lied in the past about his results , he was caught trying to modify a 3rd party track, he calls himself the best bettor, he has threatened a lot of people that said bad things about him (including a member of this forum)
So I'm not surprised that he has haters

 

[Oblivian]

Sure, he has those, but several people over the years have commented on how he's not that good and can't believe he has followers. It's not even segmented to him, it's the tout industry in general. You see people hating on other touts and their results. I get it - I think the tout industry is stupid, but that's more directed at the consumers. The people that hate the touts are the ones always trying to compare results. If they really are so much better, learn to monetize it and form a business. It's a hell of a lot more stable than gambling winnings alone.