UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas - Part II

[Joseph Budden]

I'm still on her with 1u, but I'd feel a lot better about Andrade if JJ hadnt moved to ATT. I'm watching the countdown show, smh @ Andrade training in some small hood as fuck gym

 

[Sham5916910]

Benitez is -187 on few UK books might double him with Cejudo now.

 

[Jamah]

i think maia -250 would be more accurate than maia +120 or w/e. i realistically think maia wins this 70% of the time.

as for his cardio, it actually has been fine in this current run at 170. in fact he's only lost one round in his last 6 fights.. and that was rd 5 in a fight he was clearly up 40-36

I wouldn't touch Masvidal as a fav, but I got him as the underdog.
His cardio looked bad against Matt brown, and he didn't have to work much to get the takedowns.

 

[Jamah]

It wasn't immediate. Maia flattened him out. Its an unknown more than anything, but this is Demian Maia. Good luck to Mas getting back up if Maia gets any control on the mat, even if its in the third.

Not under rating Mas at all. Its hard not to bet with the heart here. I love Mas. Its just baffling to me what anyone sees in him here. All logical tape watching points toward Maia being the right side as a dog for sure imo.

I've been wrong before, but I think that Masvidal at +120 is also a good play. Anyway, thanks for making me reconsider my play, you've made good points.

 

[EzFlyer]

I wouldn't touch Masvidal as a fav, but I got him as the underdog.
His cardio looked bad against Matt brown, and he didn't have to work much to get the takedowns.

he tapped him in rd 3..

 

[MMA Diversity]

he tapped him in rd 3..

Yea he forced Brown to either Strike or defend takedowns one too many times after Brown stuffed a couple. All Maia needs is one which makes this so tricky.

 

[t6p]

I wouldn't touch Masvidal as a fav, but I got him as the underdog.
His cardio looked bad against Matt brown, and he didn't have to work much to get the takedowns.

he tapped him in rd 3..

Yep. Maia took a few ugly shots at the beginning of the round but it hit the ground about 30 secs in and it looked very similar to the first two rounds until he locked in the choke in the final minute. I didn't think his cardio looked bad at all.

 

[Sham5916910]

R3 against Brown stopped me going big on Maia. Brown was easily stuffing his shots in r3 but made the fatal mistake of following him to the mat after he dropped him.

 

[Jamah]

Yep. Maia took a few ugly shot at the beginning of the round but it hit the ground about 30 secs in and it looked very similar to the first two rounds until he locked in the choke in the final minute. I didn't think his cardio looked bad at all.

he tapped him in rd 3..

R3 against Brown stopped me going big on Maia. Brown was easily stuffing his shots in r3 but made the fatal mistake of following him to the mat after he dropped him.

that's what I was talking about, Maia looked worse in r3 and got hurt.

 

[Yotsuya]

I'm still on her with 1u, but I'd feel a lot better about Andrade if JJ hadnt moved to ATT. I'm watching the countdown show, smh @ Andrade training in some small hood as fuck gym

JJ is really trying to be a more professional champion and maybe also trying to downplay her ego driven bullying mentality as a fighter. First I saw it as weakness, but I'm sure it will allow her to last longer in the sport. Ronda's downfall must have made her think. Curious to see how this will affect her on the long run. Andrande seems still very comfortable and confident as contender but her camp was not impressive at first glance.

 

[Joseph Budden]

R3 against Brown stopped me going big on Maia. Brown was easily stuffing his shots in r3 but made the fatal mistake of following him to the mat after he dropped him.

that was I was talking about, Maia looked worse in r3 and got hurt.

Na you guys don't give Maia enough credit for his craftiness. Maia was definitely tired, but I'm not even close to convinced he was hurt and he definitely wasn't dropped. I noticed it in the Rory fight too, when a td is stuffed he tends to take a moment on his knees and see what the fighter will do. It seems risky til you get a guy like Brown who lands a punch in that spot and makes the huge mistake of getting close or following Maia to the mat. That's what he wants, and as I've been saying to all those who think this is as simple as stuffing tds, Maia has many ways of creating and forcing grappling

 

[t6p]

that was I was talking about, Maia looked worse in r3 and got hurt.

Yea, I just don't think his cardio looked "bad" that's all. And to be fair, I'm also on Mas RD3 as a hedge to all my Maia action.

 

[Agent Mulder]

Anyone else like Branch as a dog? He has better wrestling, more technical boxing and the speed advantage.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Anyone else like Branch as a dog? He has better wrestling, more technical boxing and the speed advantage.

Not so sure about the speed advantage part, but with current prices he's def the right side. The over is nice for parlays too imo

 

[LEMONZEST]

Na you guys don't give Maia enough credit for his craftiness. Maia was definitely tired, but I'm not even close to convinced he was hurt and he definitely wasn't dropped. I noticed it in the Rory fight too, when a td is stuffed he tends to take a moment on his knees and see what the fighter will do. It seems risky til you get a guy like Brown who lands a punch in that spot and makes the huge mistake of getting close or following Maia to the mat. That's what he wants, and as I've been saying to all those who think this is as simple as stuffing tds, Maia has many ways of creating and forcing grappling

Yeah. Another thing that makes this interesting is Mas has already said he won't accept bottom position. Mas said in interviews he will always be moving and trying to fight off of his back and get up.

I think if Mas ever hits the mat he gets subbed. Mas just isn't going to focus on sub defense. Mas' focus is on wrestling and fighting for position (which is an ok game plan). However, if Mas does get down I don't think he will be careful enough. If he recklessly just tries to get up he will find himself going to sleep.

 

[Agent Mulder]

Not so sure about the speed advantage part, but with current prices he's def the right side. The over is nice for parlays too imo

It's not big but I'd say he's slightly faster. Yeah I like the over too.

 

[Monster Meat]

Andrade certainly does get wreckless, and one of the big questions for me is if JJ can make her pay for it. Andrade has shown no respect for anyone's striking at 115 yet and I'm not sure that JJ has enough power to stop her from coming forward. Accumulation of damage could be an issue though if JJ is landing on Andrade the way she has on most of her other opponents.

Unless Andrade gasses badly I have a hard time seeing JJ stoping her so I really like Andrade NSC, especially at the -125 I got it at. I cap the fight as pretty much a pick em, so I do see value on Andrade's ML and I'll most likely be adding a unit or two to it closer to the fight.

it should def be close and I could see it going either way. the bets I have on the fight are over 3.5 at -185 and Joanna by dec +152

 

[AffectEffect]

You don't know she will gas in r4 & 5. She threw 350 strikes against Hill and looked fine to me end of r3. Of course it's a concern but you can't say it so matter of fact when there's no prior proof of Andrade gassing in r4 or r5.

haha, i see you have learned some things the last few months. Congrats on the growth and recent good posts. One of the biggest red flags for a noob bettor is saying things like "i am 100% sure about X" when there isn't enough objective data out there to support that angle, for example "leon edwards grappling sucks no way he wrestles tumenov"

To your point tho, I actually have the same strategy here with andrade 2 U ML prefight with expectations to LB. Just like I posted when Ghadelia was +185 before her last fight with JJ I fully expect andrade to do well early and the pre fight value line is the brazilian imo. I don't trust either girl 100% in this fight so just like the ghadelia fight I will be looking for a freeroll with JJ live after 2 rounds.

I also hit the andrade dec prop when it was released, that wont get hedged.

 

[DarkneT]

Serious discussion here not trolling but can someone give me a solid reason as to why on my books Barzola is a decent dog?
If anyone watched that Bochniak fight he 'lost' man was that close and he looked good inside the loss I though,
I had money on Crash that night In a parlay and I just remember being so fucking mad because I'd faded Barzola and he turned up I thought at least
I do remember a bit of a discussion that it was a bit of a robbery loss'
Then he fooled Avila who is meh himself

Being totally honest the only fight I've watched of benitez was the Sam Sicilia destruction but seems to be the trend to do that to Sam these days,

Am I missing something or should this fight not be a bit closer

 

[DevilsPt2]

spot on. value at current price

You are welcome for knowledge of the Divine.

Na Maia can easily win a decision. Tired as fuck vs Rory he still took him down in the third. Rory has always been highly regarded for his jits and before that fight talked about how hard he was working positions on the ground. On the other hand, Mas is just focusing on defensive wrestling. So good luck to Mas getting off his back the way Rory did if hes taken down in the later portion of the fight.

The Rory fight was over 3 years ago, 7 fights ago and Maia is 39 now. You think his cardio will look the same at 39 as 42? After 7 more fights? I ask snce you seem to think his cardio will be at least as good as the Rory fight. What about his joints? Again, hes 39, never been popped for roids afaik and plays a grappling based game which is terrible for your joints over 25 years. You think this is a nonfactor? What age do you think it becomes a factor? Maybe you want to wait to till it becomes evident in the ring even if it costs you? Maybe it already is evident but you cant see that because Maia finished Condit in round 1? Maybe you cant see that yet because Maia was attached to Brown the whole damn fight, spending copious amount of time on Browns back? Maybe you cant see that because Gunnar wanted to grapple with Maia? Maybe you cant see that since MAgny cant get back to his feet? Think about it and remember how terrible Condits tdd is.

I dont think I have ever seen you change a pick, from what I've seen, you dictate but I could be wrong.

To be fair Maia v Mas is one of the toughest fights to cap on this card.