UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas - Part II

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Of course props went up when I was gone. Hammering those Christensen props for KO and Sub. Outright ABSURD lines
 
Yotsuya said:
I'm not discrediting Stipe and I have money on him. I think he did extremely well in those fights and they show how dedicated, sharp and ambitious he is. I'm just saying, that in my opinion those match-ups don't really tell that much if will do better this time against JDS. I suck at technical analysis, so there might very well be lots that I'm not seeing. I wrote the previous message because the Heavy Hands podcast supported my fears that JDS still has the technical advantage.
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In their first fight, Stipe gassed hard after round 2. It was his first 5 round fight.

Since then he pummeled mark hunts face for five rounds, showing no signs of gassing.


Check the box next to stipe please, cause if he doesn't get tired, jds is in for a long night.
 
iGnP said:
Let me preface this by saying that I don't think Yair is a lock by any means. I currently have 3u on him at +115 and another 0.5u on his decision line at +275. I'm considering adding another 1.5u on the +3.5 line as I think Frankie winning a 30-27 is kinda unlikely but I don't like the idea of having 5u on Yair as I can definitely see him losing.

I think Yair wins this fight about 50-55% of the time.The two biggest obstacles that Frankie has dealt with in his career have been Bendo and Aldo, who he's a combined 0-4 against (albeit, he wasn't outclassed in any of the fights). They're definitely more well rounded and accomplished than Yair, along with much better defensive wrestling, but I think Yair fits into the same mold of fighter that can give Frankie problems with his athleticism and kicking game.

I think we're in agreement that this fight is basically going to be decided on whether Frankie can continually take Yair down and hold him down. Yair isn't at that point in his career where he can get up against Frankie consistently but I can see Frankie having a hard time getting him down in the first place. Firstly, I don't see the same sort of explosion out of Frankie that I did earlier in his career. It's not really surprising as he's already 35 years old and has dealt with a lot of injuries and battles throughout his career. If he's able to make up the length and athleticism advantage that Yair has and gets take downs throughout this fight, well, I'll take my L. Can he catch one of Yair's kicks and take him down that way? Yeah, I can see that too, but it's easier said and done against Yair's unorthodox style, kicking speed, and volume. Can Yair do something stupid and end up in a bad position on the floor? Most definitely but I'm crossing my fingers that he doesn't.

At the end of the day, this jump in competition might be a little too soon for Yair, and I'd love to see Frankie win, but unless Yair fights a very sloppy fight, I don't see an easy fight for Frankie at all and I'm happy w/ my play on Yair at + odds when I think he should be a slight favorite
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Definitely agree with you regarding the advantages that Yair has here. I guess my big concern with him is that we haven't seen anyone repeatedly try to take him down since Rosa, who was pretty successful with them. It's probably safe to assume that Yair has improved that aspect of his game quite a bit since then, but I'd really like to see him prove it before I bet on him against a wrestler as good as Frankie.

That said, the Stephens fight was closer than I was expecting it to be. I didn't think Frankie looked bad, but he didn't look quite as good as usual to me if that makes any sense. Like you said, it's possible that he's starting to slow down. With so many questions, my head is telling me to avoid betting this fight at current odds. But, if I can get Frankie a little closer to evens before fight time, I'll probably throw a unit on him. I do regret not pulling the trigger on Yair +180 when I had the opportunity.
 
Vick sub +145?! Expected a lot higher. Knight NSC -114 is very reasonable
 
ill800 said:
In their first fight, Stipe gassed hard after round 2. It was his first 5 round fight.

Since then he pummeled mark hunts face for five rounds, showing no signs of gassing.

Check the box next to stipe please, cause if he doesn't get tired, jds is in for a long night.
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Hunt had had a bad weight cut and got very tired in second round. Rest of the fight was like a downhill bikeride for Stipe. But sure, he'll probably have better cardio this time.
 
ill800 said:
In their first fight, Stipe gassed hard after round 2. It was his first 5 round fight.

Since then he pummeled mark hunts face for five rounds, showing no signs of gassing.


Check the box next to stipe please, cause if he doesn't get tired, jds is in for a long night.
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I'm on Stipe here, but I think you can attribute his gassing in the first fight to two things. One, JDS stuffed 17 of his 18 takedowns attempts (Hunt only stuffed 2 of 8). And two, JDS landed 45 shots to the body in the fight. Working that hard for takedowns that aren't coming plus absorbing that many body shots is extremely taxing to your cardio. I think Stipe would be wise to be a lot more selective with his shots this time around.
 
t6p said:
Definitely agree with you regarding the advantages that Yair has here. I guess my big concern with him is that we haven't seen anyone repeatedly try to take him down since Rosa, who was pretty successful with them. It's probably safe to assume that Yair has improved that aspect of his game quite a bit since then, but I'd really like to see him prove it before I bet on him against a wrestler as good as Frankie.

That said, the Stephens fight was closer than I was expecting it to be. I didn't think Frankie looked bad, but he didn't look quite as good as usual to me if that makes any sense. Like you said, it's possible that he's starting to slow down. With so many questions, my head is telling me to avoid betting this fight at current odds. But, if I can get Frankie a little closer to evens before fight time, I'll probably throw a unit on him. I do regret not pulling the trigger on Yair +180 when I had the opportunity.
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I think someone mentioned earlier that he had food poisoning leading up to the Rosa fight. Take what you will from that. I don't think it should give him a pass but its at least something to consider. Also have to remember Yair's so young that he's going to be getting better by a decent margin every time he steps into the ring.
 
jrleclerc88 said:
All the back and fourth in maia/Masvidal Had me likely passing it. I think the best bet is Alvarez/Joanna parlay. Eddie chose Poirier as his opponent and this is his redemption fight. Pays 2to1 and I feel is a safe bet.
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I think DP merks Eddie
 
Barzola getting hammered across all books


Taking some Barz DEC +212 before that drops, too
 


Media day staredowns are up. Interesting size difference between Maia and Masvidal. We all knew Maia was bigger but the size difference is quite significant.
 
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nkp said:


Media day staredowns are up. Interesting size different between Maia and Masvidal. We all knew Maia was bigger but the size difference is quite significant.
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Joanna not mean mugging. Confidence increase Andrade
 
Cornrow Kenny said:
I'm the best ever. I'm the most brutal and vicious, and most ruthless elite bettor there's ever been. There's no one can stop me. @MMA Gambling Expert is a conqueror? No, I'm Alexander, he's no Alexander. I'm the best ever. There's never been anybody as ruthless. I'm @Joseph Budden, I'm @King_Brown. There's no one like me. I'm from their cloth. There's no one that can match me. My underdog picks are impetuous, my props are impregnable, and I'm just ferocious. I want your heart. I want to eat his children. Praise be to Allah.
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I see some things never change

<{clintugh}>
 
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