UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas - Part II

[barrygood1]

No time to dilly dally, pick will be posted on Friday. 5 bills on the line and I ain't referring to Marcell Dareus!!

- Barry

 

[Oblivian]

The Fight Pass fights aren't whacking me off at all. It's pretty sad when the one that I'm looking forward to most is Casey/Aguilar. I guess Benitez/Barzola isn't too bad, but the other 3 are very meh.

 

[thewiggo]

@EzFlyer Out of curiosity, what is your current unit size? Did it change at all after your success in the last event?

 

[t6p]

Ok before answering, what haven't you been impressed with regarding Yair?

For one, he spends too much time looking for KOs with low percentage kicks IMO. The only time he's actually landed one in the UFC was against Fili and it happened while Fili seemed to be dealing with an issue with his eye on that side. Yes, he destroyed BJ, but how much can we really take away from that. Is Yair getting that much better, or is BJ just that washed up? BJ looked like a punching bag that night.

Outside of those two fights, his performances have been kind of meh to me. He spent a good portion of the first and third round of the Rosa fight on his back and arguably lost. And while I disagree with the split in the Caceres fight (who I don't rate highly at all), he did nothing to impress me. It almost looked like a contest to see who could throw the craziest techniques. Not to mention no one he's fought is near the level of Edgar.

Now, if Frankie can't get/keep him down or decides to stand with him, I think that changes everything. It's also possible that Yair lands one of his flying kicks and Frankie finally gets finished. But, I haven't really seen any evidence that Yair will be able to avoid having Frankie on top of him. Hell, he throws himself to the ground a lot of the time with his attacks. I'm very interested to hear your thoughts.

 

[Tebowned]

EDIT also an FYI:

Hick Diaz has an AMA on r/mma at 1pm ET if anyone wants to ask him some questions to possibly help them cap.

I keep seeing people say that Skelly is going to grind you out. He seems to be more of an offensive wrestler though. You seem to have the striking advantage, are you planning to put him on his back too? Also great fight in Melbourne, I was there live. Hadn't heard of you before but you came out looking like Cerrone, then saw you wallop Caceres next. Fan now

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  "I will stop his wrestling 97% of the fight and beat his ass on the feet , good luck grinding me out"
  

 

[EzFlyer]

@EzFlyer Out of curiosity, what is your current unit size? Did it change at all after your success in the last event?

no, i haven't changed my units in a few years. sportsbook limits and and cowardice are the primary reasons.

 

[jrleclerc88]

That is very true. Anyone that spends time in a real thai camp knows to eat kicks in training as it only makes you stronger for the real fights. It hurts like nothing else but eventually those nerves deaden up and you only check kicks if you want to.

Poirier was almost going to get surgery. He very likely had to rest it for a while so my point was he likely wasn't running on it or training as hard as he would've liked too. There is a difference between a training camp and sustaining an injury in a fight. Poirier had an injury. Poirier wanted to wait until July to fights. Ur logic is flawed. Anyone who has boxed knows hitting a bag will develop wrist strength and let you punch harder, anyone who has broken their hand in a fight knows it takes time to heal. Poirier sustained an injury which needed time to heal. During the healing time he likely could,not run or train fully.

 

[Roads55]

The Fight Pass fights aren't whacking me off at all. It's pretty sad when the one that I'm looking forward to most is Casey/Aguilar. I guess Benitez/Barzola isn't too bad, but the other 3 are very meh.

 

[jrleclerc88]

True but I think we can all agree he looked pretty poor in his wins. Both split decisions over fighters who are - lets be real here - fading pretty badly, Melendez and Pettis have looked shit for a while now. His win vs RDA was good but a little discredited due to the fact RDA nearly died weight cutting the day before. This is a close fight but I personally think DP will get the KO.

Melendez looked fine and was on steroids

 

[cagebrain]

The Fight Pass fights aren't whacking me off at all. It's pretty sad when the one that I'm looking forward to most is Casey/Aguilar. I guess Benitez/Barzola isn't too bad, but the other 3 are very meh.

<18>


I thought these were appropriate

It's probably a good thing the fight whacking you off most is the chick fight

 

[Joseph Budden]

full props

5d has made my limit worse. Fuck.

 

[TimCoreCombat]

I feel like Stipe's four last fights are a smoke screen too. I've said this before, but he has stopped out of shape Hunt, goofy Werdum and two weak willed glass jaws. All points in Heavy Hands podcast regarding Stipe's problems in this fight seem correct, though it also feels little nitty-gritty. Still the only things I see in Stipe's favour compared to the first fight are the momentum, determination and confidence he's gained, which might or might not help him to find ways to improve from previous performance.

I think anyone who discredits what Stipe has done is looked at it with extreme bias. He won his last four fights. That is tough to do at heavyweight. Plus, he did so looking pretty strong. You can like JDS but I think it's unfair to discredit Stipe.

 

[ill800]

He sent an e-mail to all his premium subscribers 6h ago to tell them the 3rd bet

Not third party tracked yet. He hasn't gushed on twitter about it yet either.

 

[TimCoreCombat]

Poirier was almost going to get surgery. He very likely had to rest it for a while so my point was he likely wasn't running on it or training as hard as he would've liked too. There is a difference between a training camp and sustaining an injury in a fight. Poirier had an injury. Poirier wanted to wait until July to fights. Ur logic is flawed. Anyone who has boxed knows hitting a bag will develop wrist strength and let you punch harder, anyone who has broken their hand in a fight knows it takes time to heal. Poirier sustained an injury which needed time to heal. During the healing time he likely could,not run or train fully.

He had a knot on his leg. He's fine. And I have friends at ATT who have told me he's fine. It hurt no doubt but he's fine.

 

[trucido]

Melendez looked fine and was on steroids

I disagree. He's 1-4 in his past 5. All I'm saying is that he isn't the same fighter he used to be.

 

[Cornrow Kenny]

<18>


I thought these were appropriate

Great post

 

[iGnP]

For one, he spends too much time looking for KOs with low percentage kicks IMO. The only time he's actually landed one in the UFC was against Fili and it happened while Fili seemed to be dealing with an issue with his eye on that side. Yes, he destroyed BJ, but how much can we really take away from that. Is Yair getting that much better, or is BJ just that washed up? BJ looked like a punching bag that night.

Outside of those two fights, his performances have been kind of meh to me. He spent a good portion of the first and third round of the Rosa fight on his back and arguably lost. And while I disagree with the split in the Caceres fight (who I don't rate highly at all), he did nothing to impress me. It almost looked like a contest to see who could throw the craziest techniques. Not to mention no one he's fought is near the level of Edgar.

Now, if Frankie can't get/keep him down or decides to stand with him, I think that changes everything. It's also possible that Yair lands one of his flying kicks and Frankie finally gets finished. But, I haven't really seen any evidence that Yair will be able to avoid having Frankie on top of him. Hell, he throws himself to the ground a lot of the time with his attacks. I'm very interested to hear your thoughts.

Let me preface this by saying that I don't think Yair is a lock by any means. I currently have 3u on him at +115 and another 0.5u on his decision line at +275. I'm considering adding another 1.5u on the +3.5 line as I think Frankie winning a 30-27 is kinda unlikely but I don't like the idea of having 5u on Yair as I can definitely see him losing.

I think Yair wins this fight about 50-55% of the time.The two biggest obstacles that Frankie has dealt with in his career have been Bendo and Aldo, who he's a combined 0-4 against (albeit, he wasn't outclassed in any of the fights). They're definitely more well rounded and accomplished than Yair, along with much better defensive wrestling, but I think Yair fits into the same mold of fighter that can give Frankie problems with his athleticism and kicking game.

I think we're in agreement that this fight is basically going to be decided on whether Frankie can continually take Yair down and hold him down. Yair isn't at that point in his career where he can get up against Frankie consistently but I can see Frankie having a hard time getting him down in the first place. Firstly, I don't see the same sort of explosion out of Frankie that I did earlier in his career. It's not really surprising as he's already 35 years old and has dealt with a lot of injuries and battles throughout his career. If he's able to make up the length and athleticism advantage that Yair has and gets take downs throughout this fight, well, I'll take my L. Can he catch one of Yair's kicks and take him down that way? Yeah, I can see that too, but it's easier said and done against Yair's unorthodox style, kicking speed, and volume. Can Yair do something stupid and end up in a bad position on the floor? Most definitely but I'm crossing my fingers that he doesn't.

At the end of the day, this jump in competition might be a little too soon for Yair, and I'd love to see Frankie win, but unless Yair fights a very sloppy fight, I don't see an easy fight for Frankie at all and I'm happy w/ my play on Yair at + odds when I think he should be a slight favorite

 

[jrleclerc88]

He had a knot on his leg. He's fine. And I have friends at ATT who have told me he's fine. It hurt no doubt but he's fine.

Oh.. On mma hour he was talking about potentially needing surgery but it ended up healing up, also in his Twitter he was talking about it being bruised and painful. I've broken my hands plenty of times and know it can linger with you and take a while to heal. I was only saying it may have affected his road work somewhat. Maybe not.

 

[Yotsuya]

I think anyone who discredits what Stipe has done is looked at it with extreme bias. He won his last four fights. That is tough to do at heavyweight. Plus, he did so looking pretty strong. You can like JDS but I think it's unfair to discredit Stipe.

I'm not discrediting Stipe and I have money on him. I think he did extremely well in those fights and they show how dedicated, sharp and ambitious he is. I'm just saying, that in my opinion those match-ups don't really tell that much if will do better this time against JDS. I suck at technical analysis, so there might very well be lots that I'm not seeing. I wrote the previous message because the Heavy Hands podcast supported my fears that JDS still has the technical advantage.

 

[Sham5916910]

Oh.. On mma hour he was talking about potentially needing surgery but it ended up healing up, also in his Twitter he was talking about it being bruised and painful. I've broken my hands plenty of times and know it can linger with you and take a while to heal. I was only saying it may have affected his road work somewhat. Maybe not.

He didnt break anything tho dude it was a nasty bruise. Knots/bruising dont take long to heal