UFN 109 - Gus vs GT - Sweden

[raketmannen]

Saunders weighs in at 168, and this is just 25 hours before the event starts.

 

[Yotsuya]

Alex Nicholson yelling "THIS IS SPARTA" at Hermansson, lol

And he's naming his son Odin, so he's kind of fighting on his home turf too.

 

[ChoKuRei]

Cant wait for this event. Feel like i was not too meticulous in my research which is good! I dont want to read too heavily into things in regards to the fight game. I see some people go so deep with tape watching, looking up stats, watching interviews and going to a fighters instagram lol only to post irrelevant facts like they want to convince themselves their underdog pick will get the upset.

Have initial leans and brush up on tape to confirm or reject my suspicions, wait for line movement and attack when the window opens.

Had some strong leans early on and dropped that money while the lines were still favorable, feel really good about my picks.

This event is going to be an important one for me. I really believe in myself and my intuitive research with mma. Tomorrow will prove if i am just another gambler or if im truly on my way up to the top of the mountain to be with the elite of the elite.

Lets get it boys. And lets also pray there are no parlay shattering bullshit no contests like we seem to get every other event now lol.

 

[Ukram]

This is the only real main weigh in

 

[LEMONZEST]

Scared after till missed weight. Im big on him. Thoughts on this?

 

[BigNick100]

Scared after till missed weight. Im big on him. Thoughts on this?

Same here, but he did still look good regardless. Bisping said he was 5 pounds overweight 1 hour prior to the weigh ins, and stepped on the scale 6 pounds over. Which to me means he knew he would not make weigh and gave up instead of continuing to cut weight. I still am fairly confident he takes this.

 

[ChoKuRei]

Same here, but he did still look good regardless. Bisping said he was 5 pounds overweight 1 hour prior to the weigh ins, and stepped on the scale 6 pounds over. Which to me means he knew he would not make weigh and gave up instead of continuing to cut weight. I still am fairly confident he takes this.

I think since he did not keep cutting weight will we not see a drained till. The Till train keeps rolling baby! If he neeed the towel and looked really sucked up then we would be looking at some line movement imo

 

[Sadistics]

If anything this makes me more confident in Till.

Anyone liking Musoke NSC -121? Hard to envision Velickovic finding a finish

 

[Agent Mulder]

If anything this makes me more confident in Till.

Anyone liking Musoke NSC -121? Hard to envision Velickovic finding a finish

Yeah I like that NSC line for sure.

 

[Sadistics]

Yeah I like that NSC line for sure.

It's a great hedge for the over as well, which I have 5u on

 

[BatBoyJG]

Cant wait for this event. Feel like i was not too meticulous in my research which is good! I dont want to read too heavily into things in regards to the fight game. I see some people go so deep with tape watching, looking up stats, watching interviews and going to a fighters instagram lol only to post irrelevant facts like they want to convince themselves their underdog pick will get the upset.

Have initial leans and brush up on tape to confirm or reject my suspicions, wait for line movement and attack when the window opens.

Had some strong leans early on and dropped that money while the lines were still favorable, feel really good about my picks.

This event is going to be an important one for me. I really believe in myself and my intuitive research with mma. Tomorrow will prove if i am just another gambler or if im truly on my way up to the top of the mountain to be with the elite of the elite.

Lets get it boys. And lets also pray there are no parlay shattering bullshit no contests like we seem to get every other event now lol.

Where those picks thoughhh

 

[waiguoren]

I'm actually quite excited for this event. Lots of interesting matchups and no women's MMA!

 

[xam]

Just putting this out there, Reza has yet to decide if he is going to retire after sunday. So don't think the retirement is set in stone

 

[LEMONZEST]

Just putting this out there, Reza has yet to decide if he is going to retire after sunday. So don't think the retirement is set in stone

Reza is done and will lose this one too imo

 

[EzFlyer]

fight pass:

hadzovic-held
hadzovic looks outstanding. big LW.
held lookin very solid, too. same as usaul
hadzovic is 1-2" taller

till-ayari
ayari looks better than his debut, but still unimpressive. but he DOES look better than his debut.
till looks very solid, BUT he clocks in at 176.. looks like he just quit trying early.
they're identically sized

fs1 prelims:

musoke-velickovic
bojangles ripped at 170 as usual, looks fantastic
musoke 30 months off.. still looks terrific physically. both guys look great.
musoke is 1" taller, maybe?

silva-madadi
silva looks fantastic as expected. strong freakin 155.
mad dog madadi looks about as expected at this point
LMAO he does his usual nonsense running at silva. couldn't tell size difference, didn't seem too relevant, tho

camozzi-smith
camozzi looks ok. same as he always does.
smith looks strong as hell as usual, he looks noticably thinner in his face, kinda? am i nuts? looks like.. younger? haha
camozzi is 1" taller, but very similarly sized

munhoz-stasiak
stasiak looks good. lean 135
munhoz stockier, looks good. same as always
stasiak 1" taller

fs1 main:

nicholson-hermansson
nicholson beard is glorious. he looks very good. big 185.
hermansson super amped. he looks very solid, same as usual
nicholson is 1-2" taller.. holy crap they're gonna bang early.

taleb-enkamp
taleb coming out first lol?? he's absurdly ripped as always
enkamp very lean, looks 16 years old. very rangey.
they're similarly sized, tho taleb looks stronger

akhmedov-alhassan
akhmedov looks strong as hell, as usual. as good as ever.
al hassan also looks excellent. two bruisers here.
akhmedov is the bigger guy. 3+" taller, looks a weight class bigger

saunders-sobotta
saunders looks good. same as always. long rangey 170 etc.
sobotta in darn good shape as he usually is. looks a bit gaunt in the face, tho.
saunders is 3" taller as expected

cirkunov-oezdemir
cirkunov a freakin tank as always. looks like a HW.
oezdemir looking a little smaller than the osp fight? maybe working cardio more?
same size. cirkunov looks way stronger.

GT-gus
GT lookin very good, actually. as good as he has in the past couple years IMO. leaner than some fights.
Gus lookin fairly mediocre IMO.. bit soft, i think..
gus is 2-3" taller

 

[EzFlyer]

weigh-in induced action:

-added to GT +5.5
-took some ayari +3.5 (but using this as a psuedo-hedge to my till ML play, hoping i can middle it)
-adding a little to akhmedov **edit** gonna hold off on this, leaving my 2u on him, i'll just live bet him if he doesn't get ko'd in rd 1
-took "does not go 3 rounds" +140 (bookmaker) on hermansson-nicholson. i'm aware neither has been ko'd, but they really look like they're gonna throw down to me.

 

[Kowboy Karl]

Does anyone think Gus has a bad chin?

That's basically the only thing keeping me from laying a rather large bet on him....

 

[Sadistics]

Does anyone think Gus has a bad chin?

That's basically the only thing keeping me from laying a rather large bet on him....

I wouldn't say he has a bad chin, but he is very hittable

 

[ChoKuRei]

Where those picks thoughhh

You can check my post history for bet slips/predictions. Im at work cant fuck with that right now bud lol

Also official 109 bet thread i have two slips posted

 

[Shoulder]

So it's possible a few dogs can bark this event, so I am curious if anyone knows what is the most underdogs to win in a UFC event?

I guess we can count it two ways, either it's when the number of fighters at underdog odds won,

Does anyone think Gus has a bad chin?

That's basically the only thing keeping me from laying a rather large bet on him....

He have taken tons of punishment and it might be racking up, but he only has one KO loss in the UFC if my memory is correct.