UFC 213 - Nunes vs Shevchenko II - Vegas

Status
Not open for further replies.
Holy smokes on Chad Laprise, nearing -600 territory is a place where all of the women's follow each other off of a cliff like so much Thelma and Louise. Chad is moving up a weight class and this is a Chris Camozzi!, it's Brian of course, and he's far more technical and diversified. Don't get it twisted, I do think that Laprise wins the fight, but I cap him,somewhere around -165 — -185 territory. This is because it could end up being a grinding affair were the bigger man is able to have his way with the smaller more profecient fighter. I think Will Brooks and Cowboy Oliveira.


By the way: it's off-topic but if anyone hasn't seen it go check out the Reddit for him were Joe why was on absolutely scorched Nik Lentz for his trolling of BJ Penn. It was beautiful. Creepy Joe is not one to talk smack so when he opens his mouth I will listen. What's more, he is extremely intelligent, you don't want to get in a battle of wits with Lauzon.
 
Sadistics said:
Omie never fought AJ, are you thinking Timothy Johnson? If so, hell yes Blaydes has better TDs than Johnson. Timmy while having great wrestling credentials really only has clinch trips, Blaydes has the best blast double in the division IMO.



When has Omie ever tried a grinding approach? He's definitely been grinded on, Rosholt, Hamilton, and Johnson all did rather easily. If you're taking a shot on Omie I strongly disagree that decision is the way to go. He's always struggled with wrestlers as his getups suck, only way I see him winning is a flash KO.
Click to expand...

sorry, anthony hamilton. the fight was pretty close to even until the last takedown

does blaydes have better td than hamilton? because ill take omie standup over blaydes
 
BTW: i'll do a more in-depth thorough breakdown later but IMO Alistair Overreem -130 is the best bet of the card quite simply, I think he should be a -275 favorite. I don't want to cast aspersions, but I believe the Werdum was taking some of that gummy bear juice when he was racking up bodies in every organization. Serveral Brazilian fighters, especially those at Kings MMA saw drastic downturns after USADA came in. That included RDA and Werdum and Jacare among others.

But for the time period of about two years, when he returned from strikeforce, he was absolutely shredded and stronger and faster than ever. Since then however he's back to a more plodding low volume type of heavyweight that you will expect for a man his size. From a person who fought like he did for years before turning the corner & becoming a beast with insane cardio. I'm not saying it's 100% but I believe it's fair to be skeptical after all of the past users. And especially when you see their performance fall off a cliff after the inception of random testing.

Of course this is a matter of pot meets kettle as Overreem is the king juice out of all of juice heads LOL nevertheless, he has seemingly shaged his frame down to a more functional muscle mass anatomy. Physically, he is still very big and strong but not the guy who fought Brock Lesnar. The man who was so big that the coaches screened fight footage from the projector on his back.

He still has iron clad takedown defense and his striking is light years ahead of Werdum.

This could be a quick knock out for Alistair or a cautious pick and poke affair like the one in strikeforce.

..but anyway about it I believe the Alistair should be a -275 favorite at least
 
quincy k said:
sorry, anthony hamilton. the fight was pretty close to even until the last takedown

does blaydes have better td than hamilton? because ill take omie standup over blaydes
Click to expand...

I'd say he has significantly better takedowns honestly. At the very least he has a lot more options, as he can ragdoll guys in ways that Hamilton can't.

The odds are definitely out of control at -800, so a small play on Danny O from a value perspective is fine. But Blaydes is definitely a legitimate heavyweight prospect, in my opinion. And he should be able to throw around Omie in there
 
Last edited:
Antagonist88 said:
I'd say he has significantly better takedowns honestly. At the very least he has a lot more options, as he can ragdoll guys in ways that Hamilton can't.

The odds are definitely out of control at -800, so a small play on Danny O is alright from a value perspective is fine. But Blaydes is definitely a legitimate heavyweight prospect, in my opinion. And he should be able to throw around Omie in there
Click to expand...

well find out if blades td is better than hamiltons. if not, the decision line could middle in live betting because omie stadup is probably better, especially the kicks
 
MMA Goodfella said:
Lol you sneaky bitch. Should have known it was a lie when I seen Donald Trump's face. LOL

How do you see the fight playing out?
Click to expand...
Eh, no name calling, you'll hurt my feelings.

I haven't looked in to it this fight yet, but off the top of my head I think the odds are good here, it's a 50/50 fight.

Rob has better hands I guess you could say but Romero has better footwork. Romero can close distance very quickly and stun guys with straight punches.

If Romero wants to get Rob to the ground he will, he is on a completely different level to deflated dad bod Sousa in the wrestling department.

Romero's only weakness is his gas tank, the longer the fight goes the better chance Rob has of winning, I guess. But you never know with Romero, the guy is a freak.

Age is not really a factor here, it might appear that way but Romero is no where close to being over the hill. He might be a bit slower than he was 10 years ago but he's probably going to have old man strength, no joke, he is likely much stronger than Robert.

Rob needs to be very technical and not make any mistakes, but against an unconventional freak like Romero, it's a tall order.

Romero needs to be cautious in the first couple of rounds, if he applies his wrestling once Rob has slowed down a little he could take this fight, no problems.

I don't think this goes the distance, I don't think it goes past 4 rounds.
 
Dooze said:
Just seen the odds on Omielanczuk and put 1U on him at +500, if I goes past +550 I'll put more on him.

Daniel is tough so can't see him getting finished early here and despite Blaydes having more potential, he's not been I'm there with anyone decent other than Francis who was dominating him prior to the doctor stoppage. Daniels been in there with a much higher standard of opposition than Blaydes has (outside of Ngannou) and although Blaydes has a clear path to win let's be real in this, his best wins so far are Milstead and Cody East.

At HW I'm generally happy to play big underdogs unless it's the cream of the crop against some sap, but at HW in a battle of mid-tier fighters I'll take the vet with a lower ceiling who has proven to be scrappy and durable and make fights close at massive odds rather than a huge favourite who has had a handful of fights and not really beaten anyone of note (although obviously looked great in his last fight).

It might not win since Blaydes is obviously a favourite here but that line is out of whack. Cain vs Bigfoot 2 closed at +500 on a lot of sites (lowest +450, highest +575), this isn't that level.

I reckon worst case scenario I'll be able to live bet Blaydes and freeroll it at some point if I wanted.
Click to expand...

The line is way too juiced but Razor Blaydes is going shred that guy.
 
JDB said:
Eh, no name calling, you'll hurt my feelings.

I haven't looked in to it this fight yet, but off the top of my head I think the odds are good here, it's a 50/50 fight.

Rob has better hands I guess you could say but Romero has better footwork. Romero can close distance very quickly and stun guys with straight punches.

If Romero wants to get Rob to the ground he will, he is on a completely different level to deflated dad bod Sousa in the wrestling department.

Romero's only weakness is his gas tank, the longer the fight goes the better chance Rob has of winning, I guess. But you never know with Romero, the guy is a freak.

Age is not really a factor here, it might appear that way but Romero is no where close to being over the hill. He might be a bit slower than he was 10 years ago but he's probably going to have old man strength, no joke, he is likely much stronger than Robert.

Rob needs to be very technical and not make any mistakes, but against an unconventional freak like Romero, it's a tall order.

Romero needs to be cautious in the first couple of rounds, if he applies his wrestling once Rob has slowed down a little he could take this fight, no problems.

I don't think this goes the distance, I don't think it goes past 4 rounds.
Click to expand...


Yeah I tend to agree with pretty much everything that you said. Regarding Romero's age, I swear, when I see him the conspiracy theorist in me comes out, like is he really 40 years old? LOL In many Third World countries and Latin America, poor athletes fabricate their birth certificate and age so that they can compete in athletics or join the military. It works both ways. Those who haven't been discovered yet and are 22 may say they are 17 to get a better contract with a major league baseball team. However, then you have poor families with a phenom in their house who could make them money through sponsorships or professional sports .....and suddenly a 15-year-old becomes an 18-year-old.

. In his case I'll probably do believe he is actually 40 years old.

And yeah, it's very doubtful logos for rules. One of the only things that really scares me about Robert Whitaker and I should've other than my breakdown, is that he had a bit trouble with Rafael Natal. That is a bit disconcerting considering Romero is on another stratosphere.
 
Barnett talks training with Travis Browne - 1:58 min mark

Says he was a coach with Lundell and Ray Sefo in Vegas, before Travis wasn't getting the training he needed, in camp for Travis - things were difficult, training sessions were hard, says Mental is the most important and helping Travis with that

 
MMA Goodfella said:
BTW: i'll do a more in-depth thorough breakdown later but IMO Alistair Overreem -130 is the best bet of the card quite simply, I think he should be a -275 favorite. I don't want to cast aspersions, but I believe the Werdum was taking some of that gummy bear juice when he was racking up bodies in every organization. Serveral Brazilian fighters, especially those at Kings MMA saw drastic downturns after USADA came in. That included RDA and Werdum and Jacare among others.

But for the time period of about two years, when he returned from strikeforce, he was absolutely shredded and stronger and faster than ever. Since then however he's back to a more plodding low volume type of heavyweight that you will expect for a man his size. From a person who fought like he did for years before turning the corner & becoming a beast with insane cardio. I'm not saying it's 100% but I believe it's fair to be skeptical after all of the past users. And especially when you see their performance fall off a cliff after the inception of random testing.

Of course this is a matter of pot meets kettle as Overreem is the king juice out of all of juice heads LOL nevertheless, he has seemingly shaged his frame down to a more functional muscle mass anatomy. Physically, he is still very big and strong but not the guy who fought Brock Lesnar. The man who was so big that the coaches screened fight footage from the projector on his back.

He still has iron clad takedown defense and his striking is light years ahead of Werdum.

This could be a quick knock out for Alistair or a cautious pick and poke affair like the one in strikeforce.

..but anyway about it I believe the Alistair should be a -275 favorite at least
Click to expand...


werdum has much higher output than rheem, alistair with the power advantage. werdum outlanded rheem in every single round in their rematch and could very well do so now. the inexplicable flopping is what lost him the fight.

i think the even odds are about right
 
Nice arbing opportunity.. Skybet have got the U3.5 for Nunes/Shev at -125, Paddypower have got fight ends rd 4, 5, or by decision at +162.50. There's even a 2-and-a-half minute window where both could hit :)
 
quincy k said:
werdum has much higher output than rheem, alistair with the power advantage. werdum outlanded rheem in every single round in their rematch and could very well do so now. the inexplicable flopping is what lost him the fight.

i think the even odds are about right
Click to expand...

If Reem wasn't so flaky I would put a months salary on him. We will have to agree to disagree here. The reason that werdum was landing so much in there Strikeforce fight is for the fact that he was not engaging and just flopping on his back never letting a rhythm develop. It was a bizarre contest and demonstrated that werdum is not confident in his stand up against Overreem. People like to look at that fight through rose colored glasses believing that if werdum had only stood with Reem instead of flopping to his back, he would have won the fight. My thoughts are the exact opposite. I believe that if he wasn't flopping to his back he would have gotten knocked out or just lit up en route to losing a lopsided decision.

The one take away from that flight however is that werdum had absolutely no success in taking Reem to the mat. Every time he shot in it was like he hit a brick wall. So this time he is going to be forced to stand or points will be deducted. I highly doubt he will be able to take Reem down and that means a prolonged kick boxing match that favors the Dutch kickboxer.

What's more, the last few performances that he has participated in have looked abysmal. He looks like he's fighting in quicksand. The explosiveness that we seen against Roy Nelson and Velasquez is gone, or was absent. Even if it's fight against Minotauro he was having more problems than I would have thought at that stage of Nogs career.
 
MMA Goodfella said:
If Reem wasn't so flaky I would put a months salary on him. We will have to agree to disagree here. The reason that werdum was landing so much in there Strikeforce fight is for the fact that he was not engaging and just flopping on his back never letting a rhythm develop. It was a bizarre contest and demonstrated that werdum is not confident in his stand up against Overreem. People like to look at that fight through rose colored glasses believing that if werdum had only stood with Reem instead of flopping to his back, he would have won the fight. My thoughts are the exact opposite. I believe that if he wasn't flopping to his back he would have gotten knocked out or just lit up en route to losing a lopsided decision.

The one take away from that flight however is that werdum had absolutely no success in taking Reem to the mat. Every time he shot in it was like he hit a brick wall. So this time he is going to be forced to stand or points will be deducted. I highly doubt he will be able to take Reem down and that means a prolonged kick boxing match that favors the Dutch kickboxer.

What's more, the last few performances that he has participated in have looked abysmal. He looks like he's fighting in quicksand. The explosiveness that we seen against Roy Nelson and Velasquez is gone, or was absent. Even if it's fight against Minotauro he was having more problems than I would have thought at that stage of Nogs career.
Click to expand...

you are correct, werdum being kod migt have been the reason for the flopping.

im not betting on the fight at the open, if i do it will be at werdum if he got into the +200s in live betting in round one as i believe he has the better cardio and will finish stronger
 
MMA Goodfella said:
BTW: i'll do a more in-depth thorough breakdown later but IMO Alistair Overreem -130 is the best bet of the card quite simply, I think he should be a -275 favorite. I don't want to cast aspersions, but I believe the Werdum was taking some of that gummy bear juice when he was racking up bodies in every organization. Serveral Brazilian fighters, especially those at Kings MMA saw drastic downturns after USADA came in. That included RDA and Werdum and Jacare among others.

But for the time period of about two years, when he returned from strikeforce, he was absolutely shredded and stronger and faster than ever. Since then however he's back to a more plodding low volume type of heavyweight that you will expect for a man his size. From a person who fought like he did for years before turning the corner & becoming a beast with insane cardio. I'm not saying it's 100% but I believe it's fair to be skeptical after all of the past users. And especially when you see their performance fall off a cliff after the inception of random testing.

Of course this is a matter of pot meets kettle as Overreem is the king juice out of all of juice heads LOL nevertheless, he has seemingly shaged his frame down to a more functional muscle mass anatomy. Physically, he is still very big and strong but not the guy who fought Brock Lesnar. The man who was so big that the coaches screened fight footage from the projector on his back.

He still has iron clad takedown defense and his striking is light years ahead of Werdum.

This could be a quick knock out for Alistair or a cautious pick and poke affair like the one in strikeforce.

..but anyway about it I believe the Alistair should be a -275 favorite at least
Click to expand...

I'm all over overeem
Beyond Werdum pulling off something mental I see no reason Alistair doesn't just jab his face off or knock him out, no one takes Reem down really and why would I favour Werdums stand up? No brainer here
 
Also I'm fully on team Yoel
Open to debate why with anyone


I feel like far too much credit is being put on Rob for his jacare fight,

In his fight he's going on his back, and I think it will get very ugly for him
 
DarkneT said:
Also I'm fully on team Yoel
Open to debate why with anyone


I feel like far too much credit is being put on Rob for his jacare fight,

In his fight he's going on his back, and I think it will get very ugly for him
Click to expand...

He gets credit for Brunson too.

Yoel is a free style wrestler, he doesn't tend to put guys on their backs Brock Lesner style. But good luck to anyone grappling with Yoel.
 
JDB said:
He gets credit for Brunson too.

Yoel is a free style wrestler, he doesn't tend to put guys on their backs Brock Lesner style. But good luck to anyone grappling with Yoel.
Click to expand...

Oh yeah for sure he gets credit for both those wins but let's not act like he didn't go through some shit with Brunson

Yoels freestyle but what if he just replicates Machida fight, bad night for rob
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,238,491
Messages
55,563,271
Members
174,822
Latest member
scultator

Share this page

Back
Top