TUF 25 Finale - Gaethje vs Johnson - Vegas

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Just a reminder that Cannon was also fighting at HW till 2 fights ago. Yeah he's lighter now but it's not like he's not used to strength. Roehrick might have wrestling credentials but I'm seeing very low-level fighters competing with him there in the tape. His standup looks terrible. Cannon has to really get gassed on the ground for him to not win this imo
 
CR0W said:
Notable size difference between Roehrick and Cannonier as expected.

Surprised how much bigger Herman was that Dollaway at 205.
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i hedged canno decision with roerick ml
 
CR0W said:
As well as my normal bets I'm going to try a rolling £200 series of bets. Will be a series of singles and doubles starting from the first 2 fights. If it comes in I will then roll over the winnings to the next fight if it takes my fancy, if not it will be on to the next fight(s).
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This is exactly what a parlay is.
 
i just can't figure out a way to play almost every fight on this card. i know what the answer is: don't... but man. it's rough.

so many fairly lopsided odds that are probably pretty accurate.. that or fights we can't know enough to really be sure etc (like the cannonier-roehrick one, johnson-fortuna, etc) -- just so little information

i can't even figure out how the hell to play lima vs jt money. it's crazy. you have GOTTA think it's going 3 rounds, right? but that's over -200 obviously.. and what's funny.. each guy's only lost one decision.. ever. jt money has been subbed FOURTEEN times out of his 15 losses.. and lima ko'd 4x in his 5. it's like the histories don't matter whatsoever cause it's GOING to break trend(s) tomorrow no matter what.

i wanna say "hey, maybe lima can take his back and get a RNC" -- but REMARKABLY, only ONE of jt money's 15 sub losses is a RNC (vs rockhold in strikeforce) -- in fact, he pretty deftly escaped backmount multiple times vs krause... he's kinda hard to get w/that... he gets subbed by being a bull(headed) wrestler.. he sticks his neck into guillotines.. he gets caught from bottom.. etc... i GUESS that could happen but i doubt it. lima has never shown me squat off of his back really...

i guess this is really an event you have to pass on a lot of the fights. or maybe it's just me.
 
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hrmmmm

krause itd sucks.. it's like even money.. but the dude doesn't have much power.. if he hurts you he goes for the sub, anyway... i think i like this krause sub line, +425
 
didn't realize lima dec was +473.. i think i gotta take it. i think it's going 3 most of the time, anyway..
 
FOTN props up -- +1000 on yoder-hill, sure, why not
 
EzFlyer said:
i just can't figure out a way to play almost every fight on this card. i know what the answer is: don't... but man. it's rough.

so many fairly lopsided odds that are probably pretty accurate.. that or fights we can't know enough to really be sure etc (like the cannonier-roehrick one, johnson-fortuna, etc) -- just so little information

i can't even figure out how the hell to play lima vs jt money. it's crazy. you have GOTTA think it's going 3 rounds, right? but that's over -200 obviously.. and what's funny.. each guy's only lost one decision.. ever. jt money has been subbed FOURTEEN times out of his 15 losses.. and lima ko'd 4x in his 5. it's like the histories don't matter whatsoever cause it's GOING to break trend(s) tomorrow no matter what.

i wanna say "hey, maybe lima can take his back and get a RNC" -- but REMARKABLY, only ONE of jt money's 15 sub losses is a RNC (vs rockhold in strikeforce) -- in fact, he pretty deftly escaped backmount multiple times vs krause... he's kinda hard to get w/that... he gets subbed by being a bull(headed) wrestler.. he sticks his neck into guillotines.. he gets caught from bottom.. etc... i GUESS that could happen but i doubt it. lima has never shown me squat off of his back really...

i guess this is really an event you have to pass on a lot of the fights. or maybe it's just me.
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Yeah, probably due to so many lopsided odds (by UFC standards), but there are very few interesting fights on this card in addition to it being bad for betting. So many overs -200 or higher. I refuse to bet MLs where I don't think the fighter has a somewhat decent chance of finishing, which is preventing me from pulling a lot of triggers.
 
CR0W said:
Not that they are exactly comparable but a lot of this talk is so similar to Luke Jumeau before fighting Steele.

And although I bet Jumeau I agree in his previous 3 fights before the UFC he looked lacklustre, was taken down and had his back taken by on paper what would be "bums" so everyone near enough was on Steele because he was a step up in opponent and skill than Jumeau's previous opponents who he didn't beat utterly convincingly.

Not saying Roehrick is a lock, like I said previously Cannonier is a rightful fav here but it's just stupid to right Roehrick off completely, this on fight night could look like a HW vs a potential MW too.

Obviously we can only really go by his previous fight footage but there is no certainty that he doesn't look a lot better here and win, to completely right him off his ignorant.
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There's a chance Roehrick lays on Cannon for three rounds I just think it's very unlikely. I don't agree with the Steele comparison cos there was no way in hell i would put money on that guy as he is seriously flawed as a fighter. And i actually thought Jumeau looked pretty good on the feet in the footage i watched prior to his UFC debut. Luke had also been in there with a much higher level of competition than Roehrick has. Eighteen months ago Roehrick struggled with 40 year old William Baptiste, and six months ago he won a split over a guy having his second fight in four years with an 9-6 record. Roehrick has not impressed me one iota on tape, he only went ft to Elevation in March and there's only so much even the likes on Bang can do to help you in two months, especially when your striking is as basic as Roehrick's. Roehrick was a fat hw up until a few months ago so he's only been taking this sport seriously over the last few months. He's also taking this on short notice and Cannon has insane cardio. Let's also not forget Cannon was a 265lb HW himself not long ago.

Edit: Roehrick was meant to fight on Dana's Contender show next week so yeah he's in fight shape.
 
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Really liking Canon/Roehrick o1.5 rounds @ +110, I think Canon can be wrestled for the first round quite easily.
 
OutRun said:
This is exactly what a parlay is.
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I'm well aware what a parlay is. My point is this will be starting from the first fight and rolling through the other fights carrying the profit. It's not just one parlay. It's a multitude of doubles and or singles.

It's aside from my usual bets so I'm taking it more as a fun challenge bet and see how much I can build it over the event.
 
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I added more on Herman ml and took some tko/ko too. Dolloway has not fought in 19 months, he's going up a weight class, three losses, two ko's. Herman's losses to Krylov and Brunson, so no shame on that. Herman seems like a bum, so Dollaway could easily get overconfident and get ko'd like against Marquardt or just outworked even if he's still as good as he used to be at 185.
 
Anyways, I don't post as often here but this is my picks today,

Mj by TKO
Cannon by TKO
Tavares DEC
Johnson DEC
Ish BY KO
Tecca dec
 
I think y'all are being too pessimistic about this card. I see value in Klose, Roehrick, and Tavares at least.
 
Sham5916910 said:
There's a chance Roehrick lays on Cannon for three rounds I just think it's very unlikely. I don't agree with the Steele comparison cos there was no way in hell i would put money on that guy as he is seriously flawed as a fighter. And i actually thought Jumeau looked pretty good on the feet in the footage i watched prior to his UFC debut. Luke had also been in there with a much higher level of competition than Roehrick has. Eighteen months ago Roehrick struggled with 40 year old William Baptiste, and six months ago he won a split over a guy having his second fight in four years with an 9-6 record. Roehrick has not impressed me one iota on tape, he only went ft to Elevation in March and there's only so much even the likes on Bang can do to help you in two months, especially when your striking is as basic as Roehrick's. Roehrick was a fat hw up until a few months ago so he's only been taking this sport seriously over the last few months. He's also taking this on short notice and Cannon has insane cardio. Let's also not forget Cannon was a 265lb HW himself not long ago.

Edit: Roehrick was meant to fight on Dana's Contender show next week so yeah he's in fight shape.
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How much did you really look into Roehrick for this one? Earlier in the thread, you were saying he wouldn't be in shape. As you found out, he should be as he was actually training for a fight. Also, you are claiming he's not going to be in shape because he was a "fat heavyweight". You realize he wrestled as a "fat heavyweight" throughout college. I'm pretty sure he was taking it seriously and in shape then.

I don't know how you can overlook that he's a big wrestler going against a guy who has training to face a brawler in Bosse. That's a huge red flag to stay away from an expensive price.
 
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