UFC 216 - Ferguson vs Lee - Vegas

[EzFlyer]

schnell beltran DNGD -140 seems good to me. schnell is just so chinny but so aggressive w/subs etc.. i already liked the U2.5 at +210 or w/e but yea, i don't see this going 3, even at 125 pounds

 

[Sadistics]

Maxed Tavares dec +100 and -130, hit Brooks dec -127. Tempted by Lewis NSC +180.

@Agent Mulder Werdum dec is now +206

 

[ill800]

Had to hit werdum dec +206

Ferg itd -105

Ferg rds 2-5 +550, 650, 875, 1200

Ferg dec +365

Got Brooks decision at -165

Leites dec +375

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Ferguson is my favorite fighter but there's no way I can play him at these odds. He's not exactly the most defensively conscious guy and he takes a lot risks. Lee has gotten so good at finding opportunities to take the back, whether that being during a transition/scramble (Chiesa, Matthews) or forcing you to give up your back from top position (Trinaldo, Mustafaev). Once he's there he's just an absolute beast and he's excellent at securing and keeping the body triangle.

That said, I do think Ferg is going to be end up being too much for him right now. I have a really hard time seeing Lee having the cardio to sustain a wrestling heavy gameplan over 5 rounds, especially against a guy with this type of cardio, pace and durability. I also think he's going to struggle with Ferguson's awkward striking style.

My biggest concern is what could happen if Lee is having success with his wrestling early in the fight and he manages to get Tony's back. I'm looking forward to seeing props but at this point I'm leaning towards hoping that Lee wins the first round or two and possibly getting some nice live odds on Ferg.

My thoughts exactly. I could see Kevin getting a rear naked choke early.

When Tony finds his rythm everything is going south for Lee.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Did he really look that bad vs Browne? I'd say he was overly passive to compensate for being overly aggressive vs Stipe, but he still was doing far more damage between the 2 fighters.

Werdums lost the third round against Browne. He just had no offense there... it looked like he ran out of ideas for me and was fighting not to lose in that round.

 

[turbozed]

Werdums lost the third round against Browne. He just had no offense there... it looked like he ran out of ideas for me and was fighting not to lose in that round.

I thought he knew he won the first two rounds and just coasted. Probably concerning for ITD bettors if Werdum doesn't try for a finish in the round where Lewis is most finishable.

 

[northsofia]

schnell beltran DNGD -140 seems good to me. schnell is just so chinny but so aggressive w/subs etc.. i already liked the U2.5 at +210 or w/e but yea, i don't see this going 3, even at 125 pounds

I think you ment U1.5?

 

[Agent Mulder]

Maxed Tavares dec +100 and -130, hit Brooks dec -127. Tempted by Lewis NSC +180.

@Agent Mulder Werdum dec is now +206

Sweet! Should open atleast +200 in EU then.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I rewatched Schnell vs Sandoval.. omg this guy has the worst chin in mma history.
Fuck.. I wont bet him even against Beltran.

 

[jacksonspick]

My first time posting in this forum, been lurking for about half a year.

My only bet for this card right now is a 6unit wager on Stamman.

I was not impressed by Duquesnoy's UFC debut. He was not fighting a good boxer yet he still managed to get tagged quite a bit in the first. Cody is exactly the type of fighter to give him problems, with his athleticism, wrestling, and gas tank. duquesnoy even got tagged in the second rd after williams was exhausted. Cody's boxing is too crisp and he is going to be too quick for duquesnoy. The way that he put together his combinations his last fight really impressed me, and he was going against a better boxer than duquesnoy. duquesnoy does not have good enough head movement to be keeping his hands as low as he does.

The thing impressed me about duquesnoy is how he managed to stand back up quickly. I see cody getting a takedown or two each round and landing a couple of shots before duquesnoy gets up.

The only ways I see duquesnoy winning by submission off his back (I have no clue how good his or cody's bjj is) or with a perfectly timed knee as cody is coming in. I'm sure cody team is well aware of duquesnoy's knees and elbows and they are going to prepare for that. For this fight i'm extremely confident cody has an advantage and somewhat confident he has the advantage on the ground.

The only other underdogs i've ever felt this confidently about was felder vs stevie ray and teymur vs. vannata. I'm in it for 6u let's get this $$$. stamman by decision.

 

[EzFlyer]

I think you ment U1.5?

yep meant U1.5

 

[raketmannen]

My first time posting in this forum, been lurking for about half a year.

My only bet for this card right now is a 6unit wager on Stamman.

I was not impressed by Duquesnoy's UFC debut. He was not fighting a good boxer yet he still managed to get tagged quite a bit in the first. Cody is exactly the type of fighter to give him problems, with his athleticism, wrestling, and gas tank. duquesnoy even got tagged in the second rd after williams was exhausted. Cody's boxing is too crisp and he is going to be too quick for duquesnoy. The way that he put together his combinations his last fight really impressed me, and he was going against a better boxer than duquesnoy. duquesnoy does not have good enough head movement to be keeping his hands as low as he does.

The thing impressed me about duquesnoy is how he managed to stand back up quickly. I see cody getting a takedown or two each round and landing a couple of shots before duquesnoy gets up.

The only ways I see duquesnoy winning by submission off his back (I have no clue how good his or cody's bjj is) or with a perfectly timed knee as cody is coming in. I'm sure cody team is well aware of duquesnoy's knees and elbows and they are going to prepare for that. For this fight i'm extremely confident cody has an advantage and somewhat confident he has the advantage on the ground.

The only other underdogs i've ever felt this confidently about was felder vs stevie ray and teymur vs. vannata. I'm in it for 6u let's get this $$$. stamman by decision.

Cody let himself get backed up to the cage a lot when Ware walked forward behind strikes, if he gets stuck against the cage too much in this fight Duquesnoy will eventually land a significant knees or elbows for sure. Williams did not just gas Tom broke his ribs

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

Cody let himself get backed up to the cage a lot when Ware walked forward behind strikes, if he gets stuck against the cage too much in this fight Duquesnoy will eventually land a significant knees or elbows for sure. Williams did not just gas Tom broke his ribs

Why you doubting Cody Stamann? hell of a fighter, future world champion. Cody's gonna break this kid up

 

[Shoulder]

I just found my favorite bet, Duquesnoy - Stamann U2.5 [email protected]

Also throwing 0.2 @ Moraga 5.00.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

I thought he knew he won the first two rounds and just coasted. Probably concerning for ITD bettors if Werdum doesn't try for a finish in the round where Lewis is most finishable.

Maybe you are right and he was just coasting. That cost him the Overeem 3 fight tho.

 

[vkram]

Could Ferguson's age come into play soon? Plus his last 3 fights were very back and worth and he ate some big shots. Maybe Kevin Lee won't be the guy that cracks his chin but I think that Ferguson's style is unsustainable in the long term.

 

[t6p]

Maybe you are right and he was just coasting. That cost him the Overeem 3 fight tho.

Not sure I follow you. Wasn't the third the only round he won in that fight and arguably a 10-8, or are you saying he didn't go hard enough for the finish?

 

[turbozed]

Consensus among the Wyman, Ruesbusch and Simon crew is that Duquesnoy puts out Stamann against the cage. I'm not sure what they're seeing but a lot of you here also agree with that. Can anyone here point to the most significant factor/observation to support this viewpoint? I was going to go multi-unit on Stamann but now thinking twice.

 

[Shoulder]

Could Ferguson's age come into play soon? Plus his last 3 fights were very back and worth and he ate some big shots. Maybe Kevin Lee won't be the guy that cracks his chin but I think that Ferguson's style is unsustainable in the long term.

Totally agree, but Lee isn’t the guy to exploit it. Maybe Connor can KO him if they meet next, or someone else a year or two down the road, but hell no Lee will Ko him.

 

[Yotsuya]

I like Schnell close to evens. He was originally a funky grappler who started really developing striking skills later in his career, right? Now he's found out, that he definetly can not handle UFC level heavy hitters. He's made changes on his style before, so I think he can do it again and ATT should be the place to able him to get it done. Beltran does not hit that hard and I think most of his striking arsenal is long range. He's also pretty easy to take down and his cardio seems bad at 125. Closing the distance and working for trips seems the safe gameplan. Beltran's only advantage is Schnell's bad chin but he's very flaky himself, so the opening line makes much more sense to me than the current one.