UFC 216 - Ferguson vs Lee - Vegas

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Shoulder said:
Totally agree, but Lee isn’t the guy to exploit it. Maybe Connor can KO him if they meet next, or someone else a year or two down the road, but hell no Lee will Ko him.
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Maybe he doesn't need to knock him out just make Ferguson realise that his chin isn't as granite as before and make him more hesitant. Just playing devil's advocate here.
 
EzFlyer said:
ah FML

bibulatov dec opened -155, lol
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Are you saying FML cause you are mad about that? I thought that was a great line given his ML is -600 and Moraga is as durable as they come. Rd 5 armbar to MM and a doctor's stoppage against John Dodson the only times he has been stopped.
 
Card said:
Training at CSA 4 weeks, change things up, was at ATT for 4 weeks first, last fight I fought angry, over zealous, I need to fight smarter, Beltran big, tough, reminds me of myself, scrappy, both our jobs are on the line, expect desperation, weight cut is on pace, excited about the fight

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Sounds good.
 
vkram said:
Maybe he doesn't need to knock him out just make Ferguson realise that his chin isn't as granite as before and make him more hesitant. Just playing devil's advocate here.
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Lee could knock him down and choke him out, that’s entirely possible. But Ferg changing his style due to lack of confidence will happen the same day Justin Gaethje stops brawling forward. .
 
Hey guys.. i've been out of town and unable to keep up with the thread. Is there a consensus around a particular fight or fighter with nice odds you're on..... or pertinent information regarding anyone?

I'll try to go through the rest of the thread but I know lines are changing. I'll plays my picks in here in a bit.

I actually like Cody over Duqu odds. I'll give my reasoning in a bit as well.

TIA!!
 
vkram said:
Could Ferguson's age come into play soon? Plus his last 3 fights were very back and worth and he ate some big shots. Maybe Kevin Lee won't be the guy that cracks his chin but I think that Ferguson's style is unsustainable in the long term.
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Watch the RDA fight again. Ferg did make some changes. Don't get me wrong, he still applied a ton of forward pressure. And RDA did have a decent rhythm in the first 8 minutes or so of the fight. But then Ferg just took over. And while he applied nonstop pressure, he did it in a slightly more measured way. He really didn't take a ton of punishment even early in the fight where he was getting outstruck and finding his range.

Now, is this something he will try to implement again? Hard to say. He's such an instinctual fighter that it might be hard for him to limit his recklessness consistently. Time will tell. But the way he fought rds 3-5 vs RDA was a thing of beauty.
 
raketmannen said:
Cody let himself get backed up to the cage a lot when Ware walked forward behind strikes, if he gets stuck against the cage too much in this fight Duquesnoy will eventually land a significant knees or elbows for sure. Williams did not just gas Tom broke his ribs
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Cody took that fight on 10 days short notice. He also was cleared from a knee injured just 2 weeks before that fight. The fight was also at 145 and now he is back to 135. I think the reason he was backing up against the fence so much was because he wanted Ware to throw so he could duck under and land the take down.Also his cardio wasn't what it normally would be. Also if he was cleared from a knee injury just 2 weeks before he must not have done a lot of training in the previous month. He didn't stay in front of his opponents pre UFC like he did against Ware. I think we see a better and faster Cody this fight. I am on his ML and dec. Tom is a little overrated imo.
 
You can't make excuses like that for Cody when he is otherwise completely unproven vs UFC competition and fighting somebody who is more powerful, athletic, and talented. Weaknesses he showed vs Ware are likely to also manifest in this fight.

That said I'm not on Duquesnoy, I'm on the under bc I think a huge % of Duquesnoy's wins come via finish.
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
You can't make excuses like that for Cody when he is otherwise completely unproven vs UFC competition and fighting somebody who is more powerful, athletic, and talented. Weaknesses he showed vs Ware are likely to also manifest in this fight.

That said I'm not on Duquesnoy, I'm on the under bc I think a huge % of Duquesnoy's wins come via finish.
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Wait....Did you just say Tom is more powerful? <36>Your taking about Tom who just fought 8-5 Williams, was getting tagged by a poor striker, got taken down more then once..Cody is a way better striker and wrestler then Williams
 
Cody may be physically stronger, but if we are talking about who has more power to end the fight it's Tom and it's not even close.
 
One more aside before reading the thread: don't see how anyone can bet Brad over Leites straight up if you're going that route. He hasn't had a finish in like seven years! Moreover, the last person that he got out of there was the fucking ghost of Phil Baroni. Hell, even finishing a prime Baroni isn't something that should leave you anything but moderately impressed. I mean, Baroni's always been a guy who has the gas tank of a child's motor scooter at best and 2-cycle push lawn-mower at worst.. Anyhow, it's pretty unlikely that Thales gets finished, and if you're ok Tavares I would definitely go with Over 2.5 like -250 or W/E it is now.

Leites definitely has the potential to get a victory although he does not likely get the finish either, so they are about 2.5 will also cash on a close decision. And with Brad's oft low volume output, that is very possible. Remember, Brad struggled mightily against none other than Bubba fucking McDaniel not so long ago. He and he can be incredibly flaky. If the Tavares who fought Bubba McDaniel shows up Leites w̶i̶l̶l̶ ̶m̶o̶s̶t̶ ̶l̶i̶k̶e̶l̶y̶ ̶ almost assuredly get the victory. I mean, in this scenario, it's only a matter if Leites submits Tavares or wins a decision.

As such, I see zero value in Brad's money line. I am shocked that people are still betting him straight up. That's the only reason I mention it.
 
Borg made weight, I can't believe it...
 
turbozed said:
Consensus among the Wyman, Ruesbusch and Simon crew is that Duquesnoy puts out Stamann against the cage. I'm not sure what they're seeing but a lot of you here also agree with that. Can anyone here point to the most significant factor/observation to support this viewpoint? I was going to go multi-unit on Stamann but now thinking twice.
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From what we've seen of him in the UFC, he backs himself up against the cage ala Woodley and looks to duck under incoming pressure for blast doubles. Also doesn't have the greatest defense (neither does Duq for that matter), and tends to take a shot in order to give one. Duq is especially good at sneaking elbows in against the fence/in the clinch when guys don't expect them. I also have this method capped as Duq's most probable way to win if he does.
 
Card said:
Hasn't fought anyone like me, best guy he's fought, being in Daron's corner for so many fights helped, in my debut, I was trying to conserve energy, gameplan worked, I won't fold, I won't get tired, I have a gameplan, I study my opponents religiously, I will take him down, I'm a golden gloves champ, give people what they want to see, I want to test it against him, I'll be all over the place, I'm a big bantamweight, I want to fight tough guys, my loss changed my mentally about judges, I now to go take guys out, I don't want to grind out guys, I'd rather go down swinging, I'd rather hit the mat then go to the judges score cards, I have power and kicks, I do nothing but train

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That statement would worry me a bit if I was betting Stamann...Seing as his most likely way to win would be by grinding Duq out and his most likely way to lose would be to brawl and go down swinging.

I got 2u on Duq @ 1.94...not sure yet if I'm gonna let it ride or not.
 
Not sure about all these comments so confident Duq wins standing. He’s predictable and lacks defense. Entirely possible Cody can win on the feet.
 
NorthernLights said:
That statement would worry me a bit if I was betting Stamann...Seing as his most likely way to win would be by grinding Duq out and his most likely way to lose would be to brawl and go down swinging.

I got 2u on Duq @ 1.94...not sure yet if I'm gonna let it ride or not.
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It would worry me a lot more if he hadn't gone to a decision 5/7 fights since having that controversial loss...
 
Ferguson looked kind of relieved after making weight, didn't use a towel though.
 
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