UFN 132 Cerrone vs Edwards

turbozed said:
If I knew 100% that a bet was going to be a lock and it would cash, I'm going to be betting my entire bankroll on it and then be taking out money from my savings and retirement to bet more on it.

Unfortunately, I've never encountered such a bet in my life.
Click to expand...

Mayweather vs Mcgregor was the closest thing to a lock with reasonable odds that i've ever seen
 
Wiktoruspro said:
To all Abe backers, who would you pick if the odds were at evens? Numbers dont fight, remember that by betting value
Click to expand...
Good god, do you actually understand the stuff you spout off? This has got to be one of the p4p worst posts on this forum.
 
LEMONZEST said:
Easy to say in retrospect. May was in some trouble early on.
Click to expand...

trouble? not really..

all the hype on conor, made it seem less of a lock. wish I'd just avoided all talk about it and smashed floyd for more than i did and hammered that 1.4-1.5 in play
 
Wiktoruspro said:
Your buddy wrote that already so stfu and get on topic
Click to expand...
Uh, ok sorry.
To all Cerrone backers, who would you pick if the odds were at evens? Numbers dont fight, remember that by betting value.
To all Lausa backers, who would you pick if the odds were at evens? Numbers dont fight, remember that by betting value.
To all Anzai backers, who would you pick if the odds were at evens? Numbers dont fight, remember that by betting value.
 
My logic for betting Abe is this: Given the attributes of these fighters, I find it hard to believe that Abe has worse than a 20% chance of winning this fight... so even if my bet is bad, it's not that bad. To me it's far more conceivable that this fight looks like a coin flip or even a 60/40 or 70/30 in Abe's favor, in which case the bet is ridiculously good. Huge upside, not a huge downside.
 
Roads55 said:
trouble? not really..

all the hype on conor, made it seem less of a lock. wish I'd just avoided all talk about it and smashed floyd for more than i did and hammered that 1.4-1.5 in play
Click to expand...

The only trouble Floyd had was figuring out how to carry Pillowfists McGregor long enough to make it look good for the fans
 
Damn almost forgot Cerrone beat Barboza... has that Cerrone really disappeared?
 
I like Schnell at +170.

Although Schnell has a suspect chin, I believe Inoue lacks the power to exploit it. Inoue is also susceptible to counters which is something that Schnell does well. Inoue leaps in with the same straight repeteadly and also throws a somewhat lazy jab. I believe he lacks the feints and athleticism to make this style work at a higher level.
The odds would indicate that Inoue has a clear advantage on the ground but Schnell is a good grappler himself with dangerous submissions, especially the guillotine. Inoue is not a competent wrestler so if Schnell gameplans around keeping this fight on the feet it should stay there where I believe he has the advantage.
Although Inoue has a lot of submissions, they have been against low level fighters on the japanese regionals. When he fought John de Tomas, who is not close to UFC-level, he was not able to submit him despite having a ton of submission attempts. He also got reversed in a body triangle. Both guys have a similar grappling style where they favor submission over position so it should be a fun scrap if it does hit the ground.
 
Roads55 said:
trouble? not really..

all the hype on conor, made it seem less of a lock. wish I'd just avoided all talk about it and smashed floyd for more than i did and hammered that 1.4-1.5 in play
Click to expand...
I wouldn’t call it trouble but I was able to get Floyd at -175 live if I remember correctly
 
Jessica rose clark

-no doubt she would perform well against pvz last fight
-trains full time, had only few weeks off since pvz fight
-spars all year round regardless
-leaves friday night to get to sigapore
-says eye has the skill set and experience to make it a good battle but is still better then her in all areas
-suggest her style will favour hers more
-trains at syndicate mma and ufc pi, does not cross train with others, joey coldwood (female mma) trained with and worked with jess (bjj black belt) and 1-2 others from syndicate team.
-works with a nutritionist, will advise her what to do and when.
-23hr plane ride, 17hr on first flight though, but will keep an eye on sleep and water intake.
-who knows what will happen in this fight, plans on adapting will adapt and dominate. Has improved
her grappling this camp, but can drop people too.
-with win over top 10 eye, wants a top 5 next but will continue regardless who they give next



Jessica eye

-signed for clark fight 2 months ago- but dated march
-happy @ 125 now
-wanted to play it safer to get the win and injury free, worked a lot on her ground game
and wrestling aspect. Knew she won and they could not give her a bad decision loss again.
-controls her anxiety and ufc octagon jitters a lot more, people told her eye is a looser and it effected her and also failed drug test, so its been a hard road to get back to winning.
-discusses usadas recent removal of a cbt oil substance which helps her brain trauma, which shes taken all her life so had to re-do her work plan for fighting due to it.
-says she is more experienced then her opponent clark, been to mexico @ altitude and australia before so is use to it.
-full team is now home (was with stripe @ ufc tuf series) but worked with a small group of people.
mainly local guys, mo, alison (girl who fought clarks training partner)
-been doing tons of wrestling/grappling for this camp, going to show how good she is
-works at strong style gym/camp, got an open door so fighters come and go
-been easier to lose weight oddly being older so 125 not an issue
-mma gods will give her finish this fight


Matt Schnell

-now married and life is happy
-jet lag does not effect him since his dad is a pilot and been on flights many times
-leaving sunday night will get there tuesday morning, will feel like its 1 day lost but will be fine
for fight week. Will make adjustments during in flight to get over the hours and time issue.
-adam antolin (dana white series fighter) will be in his corner, also a guy helping him with diet also
-had previously put too much mental block and pressure in earlier ufc fights so is glad he got the win
-try to stop getting a head of him, likes to bite down and throw down but is trying to concentrate on his family now.
-likes the match up on inoue, knows hes undefeated and does not fear an undefeated guy since we all have had favoured match ups.
-trained at CSA in California, kickboxers and with benito lopez, dustin ortiz grappling daily and also alex chambers (10th planet ji jitsu guy) and adam antolin. Smaller group got 1 to 1 access.
-gonna fight 15 minutes, test who makes adjustments knows inoue is technical but has made mistakes
suggest he does not want to attempt a sub and end up on the bottom, wants to be on the top to land gnp. Knows inoue may give him some trouble with sub attempts, but he tries and hits harder so likes his chances here.


Petr Yan

-he loves mma and to fight so not surprised he got a 4 fight ufc contact this fast
-had an injury, with a Torn ACL and surgery and now fully recovered and rehabed. his knee is 100% now and happy to use it in his ufc debut
-claims other ufc fighters ducked him and did not want the fight with him. Those ufc fighters claimed
injured.
-7 week camp for this ufc debut, knew he would be in sigapore card but not knowing the opponent
-wants those exciting fights like POTN fights, not bothered who is put in front of him
-studied ishi fighter tape, he is dangerous in some areas but not bothered with his skill set. Will look
to control and implement his fight with his own strengths.
-brought in a russian (master of sports) to train with this camp
-wants a finish for this fight but a win more so won't risk too much with fancy moves or new techniques.
-wants ufc moscow fight card next, but wants ufc to choose his next opponent



Leon Edwards

-best camp been with in, bringing a guy to train with but not his brother fabian(bro has a broken hand)
previous team moved to a new gym including brother, but same.
-been training everywhere even AKA but prefer this place.
-been calling cowboy out for a while and finally got it
-Singapore is a hot place about 32c, loved it still
-on a 5 fight win so wants a good win here to allow ufc to get behind him
-wants that darren till fight still since he is the best bw out there.
-says is better striking and grappling then cowboy, says hes 35 and he is 26.
-will get a finish and back to Birmingham ufc card



Cowboy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jxn0eA1sbI
-says leon is an young up and commer
-says hes been called old, but is old and old in the sport
-nothing leon won't show him anything new, appreciate hes taken the fight
but will be a short night for him.



Pedro
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXLlyeiWJNo
-says osp is a dangerous fighter, even if coming off a loss.
-was offered a couple of fighters but will always pick a top 10 guy, big name and brand for him
-matches up well, is developing well and picking up those small things to make the difference.
-excited to fight in sigapore
-not sure why so many Australians names on the Asian card but it gives his country more chances to grow and get bigger so is pleased.
-got a bit too excited in his last fight, but knew he was in the winning zone since weight cut and camp
went fully well.
-learned from his losses so he could work on improvements
-was with jackson wink, but it does cost him a lot to train their and jet lag is bad. Wanted to get back
to australia though to make prep for Singapore. Also worked at cowboys ranch to work their in his gym.
-trained with brandon grigson (striking) got the flow well with him. Worked with boxing, wrestling and stamina a lot.
-wants a first round finish
 
Ukram said:
Jessica rose clark

-no doubt she would perform well against pvz last fight
-trains full time, had only few weeks off since pvz fight
-spars all year round regardless
-leaves friday night to get to sigapore
-says eye has the skill set and experience to make it a good battle but is still better then her in all areas
-suggest her style will favour hers more
-trains at syndicate mma and ufc pi, does not cross train with others, joey coldwood (female mma) trained with and worked with jess (bjj black belt) and 1-2 others from syndicate team.
-works with a nutritionist, will advise her what to do and when.
-23hr plane ride, 17hr on first flight though, but will keep an eye on sleep and water intake.
-who knows what will happen in this fight, plans on adapting will adapt and dominate. Has improved
her grappling this camp, but can drop people too.
-with win over top 10 eye, wants a top 5 next but will continue regardless who they give next



Jessica eye

-signed for clark fight 2 months ago- but dated march
-happy @ 125 now
-wanted to play it safer to get the win and injury free, worked a lot on her ground game
and wrestling aspect. Knew she won and they could not give her a bad decision loss again.
-controls her anxiety and ufc octagon jitters a lot more, people told her eye is a looser and it effected her and also failed drug test, so its been a hard road to get back to winning.
-discusses usadas recent removal of a cbt oil substance which helps her brain trauma, which shes taken all her life so had to re-do her work plan for fighting due to it.
-says she is more experienced then her opponent clark, been to mexico @ altitude and australia before so is use to it.
-full team is now home (was with stripe @ ufc tuf series) but worked with a small group of people.
mainly local guys, mo, alison (girl who fought clarks training partner)
-been doing tons of wrestling/grappling for this camp, going to show how good she is
-works at strong style gym/camp, got an open door so fighters come and go
-been easier to lose weight oddly being older so 125 not an issue
-mma gods will give her finish this fight


Matt Schnell

-now married and life is happy
-jet lag does not effect him since his dad is a pilot and been on flights many times
-leaving sunday night will get there tuesday morning, will feel like its 1 day lost but will be fine
for fight week. Will make adjustments during in flight to get over the hours and time issue.
-adam antolin (dana white series fighter) will be in his corner, also a guy helping him with diet also
-had previously put too much mental block and pressure in earlier ufc fights so is glad he got the win
-try to stop getting a head of him, likes to bite down and throw down but is trying to concentrate on his family now.
-likes the match up on inoue, knows hes undefeated and does not fear an undefeated guy since we all have had favoured match ups.
-trained at CSA in California, kickboxers and with benito lopez, dustin ortiz grappling daily and also alex chambers (10th planet ji jitsu guy) and adam antolin. Smaller group got 1 to 1 access.
-gonna fight 15 minutes, test who makes adjustments knows inoue is technical but has made mistakes
suggest he does not want to attempt a sub and end up on the bottom, wants to be on the top to land gnp. Knows inoue may give him some trouble with sub attempts, but he tries and hits harder so likes his chances here.


Petr Yan

-he loves mma and to fight so not surprised he got a 4 fight ufc contact this fast
-had an injury, with a Torn ACL and surgery and now fully recovered and rehabed. his knee is 100% now and happy to use it in his ufc debut
-claims other ufc fighters ducked him and did not want the fight with him. Those ufc fighters claimed
injured.
-7 week camp for this ufc debut, knew he would be in sigapore card but not knowing the opponent
-wants those exciting fights like POTN fights, not bothered who is put in front of him
-studied ishi fighter tape, he is dangerous in some areas but not bothered with his skill set. Will look
to control and implement his fight with his own strengths.
-brought in a russian (master of sports) to train with this camp
-wants a finish for this fight but a win more so won't risk too much with fancy moves or new techniques.
-wants ufc moscow fight card next, but wants ufc to choose his next opponent



Leon Edwards

-best camp been with in, bringing a guy to train with but not his brother fabian(bro has a broken hand)
previous team moved to a new gym including brother, but same.
-been training everywhere even AKA but prefer this place.
-been calling cowboy out for a while and finally got it
-Singapore is a hot place about 32c, loved it still
-on a 5 fight win so wants a good win here to allow ufc to get behind him
-wants that darren till fight still since he is the best bw out there.
-says is better striking and grappling then cowboy, says hes 35 and he is 26.
-will get a finish and back to Birmingham ufc card



Cowboy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jxn0eA1sbI
-says leon is an young up and commer
-says hes been called old, but is old and old in the sport
-nothing leon won't show him anything new, appreciate hes taken the fight
but will be a short night for him.



Pedro
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXLlyeiWJNo
-says osp is a dangerous fighter, even if coming off a loss.
-was offered a couple of fighters but will always pick a top 10 guy, big name and brand for him
-matches up well, is developing well and picking up those small things to make the difference.
-excited to fight in sigapore
-not sure why so many Australians names on the Asian card but it gives his country more chances to grow and get bigger so is pleased.
-got a bit too excited in his last fight, but knew he was in the winning zone since weight cut and camp
went fully well.
-learned from his losses so he could work on improvements
-was with jackson wink, but it does cost him a lot to train their and jet lag is bad. Wanted to get back
to australia though to make prep for Singapore. Also worked at cowboys ranch to work their in his gym.
-trained with brandon grigson (striking) got the flow well with him. Worked with boxing, wrestling and stamina a lot.
-wants a first round finish
Click to expand...

So Tyson Pedro isnt training at jackson wink anymore ?
 
Sunwater said:
Uh, ok sorry.
To all Cerrone backers, who would you pick if the odds were at evens? Numbers dont fight, remember that by betting value.
To all Lausa backers, who would you pick if the odds were at evens? Numbers dont fight, remember that by betting value.
To all Anzai backers, who would you pick if the odds were at evens? Numbers dont fight, remember that by betting value.
Click to expand...

I don't think you understand what "value" actually means. If you think Cerrone has a 45% chance of winning the fight (I'm just making this up, doesn't reflect what I actually think), but his ML is +170 (where it is now) which implies he only has a ~35% chance of winning the fight, then that's value.

In that scenario you give Edwards a 55% chance of winning the fight, but his -200 ML implies he has a ~65% chance of winning the fight. That is an inflated price tag and the opposite of value.

It's subjective based on where you rate each fighters' % chance of victory, but if you honestly think Edwards' line is accurate and that he wins 65% of the time in a fight with Cowboy, then you probably shouldn't be doing this
 
ClipYourDirtyWings said:
I don't think you understand what "value" actually means. If you think Cerrone has a 45% chance of winning the fight (I'm just making this up, doesn't reflect what I actually think), but his ML is +170 (where it is now) which implies he only has a ~35% chance of winning the fight, then that's value.

In that scenario you give Edwards a 55% chance of winning the fight, but his -200 ML implies he has a ~65% chance of winning the fight. That is an inflated price tag and the opposite of value.

It's subjective based on where you rate each fighters' % chance of victory, but if you honestly think Edwards' line is accurate and that he wins 65% of the time in a fight with Cowboy, then you probably shouldn't be doing this
Click to expand...
I think he was mocking the other guy, but can't really tell for sure. Not sure how many in here are casual or consider themselves serious gamblers, but from my outsider perspective theres a lot of dumb things being said in here.
 
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