UFC 232 Jones vs Gustafsson II

[SBJJ]

10k does not mean the same to others as it does to you.
Didn't you think Botelho should have been at least -400 against Calvillo? Maybe you are not the best judge of what others should bet and at what price

I'm still figuring out who the new trolls are

 

[Oblivian]

No, I didn't. You either have me confused with someone else, or have a poor memory. On the contrary, I thought that at -130 Botelho the fight was way too close to call, but then leaned towards her after Calvillo collapsing and being unable to stand during the weigh-ins.

If you're going to call me out on a mistake, make sure it's something I actually wrote.

I've got a pretty sharp memory and I was on Calvillo, so I do remember you saying some pretty bold things in that fight. I went back and double checked, and you did only give Calvillo a 20-25% chance bro.

Not really. I hadn't picked at all before the weigh-ins yesterday, as I thought -165 for Botelho was pretty close to true odds. But Calvillo's physical state makes her one path to victory far less likely.

Oh, and I watched Botelho-Gonzalez, which reassured me of a number of concerns. Of course Calvillo can win, but I put her chances around 20-25%.

Speaking of slightly uncertain bets, should I bet even more Rountree in round 1 at +150? I already put in 2.5 u on him at +145, and again, this is one of the most favorable match-ups he could ask for.

 

[DevilsPt2]

You're right that Pedro only threw a handful of jabs, but the ones he did throw were landing and/or getting a big reaction from Latifi. I think Anderson will have success with his jab here and I agree with @MT6ix's thoughts in general.

Latifi typically fights in bursts, with periods of inactivity mixed in, theoretically to preserve his cardio. Facing a high volume guy like Anderson, I think Latifi is going to have difficulty winning rounds unless he's able to hurt Corey multiple times. We haven't seen anyone implement a wrestling heavy attack against Latifi either. Even if Anderson isn't able to take him down, just having to defend could wear on Latifi's gas tank, which could lead to his volume dropping off even more.

IMO Anderson decision and Latifi itd are by far the two most likely scenarios here. I cap the fight as a pick em and so far I've put down 1u on Anderson at +165. By the sounds of it, you're not seeing a path for Corey and you believe Latifi should be a much bigger favorite. How big have you bet him?

Why cant Latifi win rounds by taking Anderson down? Why cant Latifi submit him with a Kimura? I put down 3u at -170 and 2u at -155. Apparently going against the circle but I feel good about it.

Before digging into tape I was certain it was going to be a lopsided victory for Latifi since Latifi trains out of Allstars Gym in Sweden and one of his main training partners is Alexander Gustaffson who is a superior version of Corey Anderson but after watching tape Anderson definitely has a reasonable path to victory.

I was referring to Teixera not Cummins in my original post. You are right about Tyson Pedro and the jabs, he threw one even though his coaches in between rounds was telling him to throw it more. He was using his feints to set up kicks.

We can never be certain but Anderson's coaches Ricardo Almeida and Mark Henry are never going to let Anderson just trade with Latifi the whole fight and trade blow for blow, it makes sense against Patrick Cummins but not against Latifi and Teixera but you need to strike first to set up your takedown attempts. He will use his jab to set up takedowns and wear Latifi down against the cage. Anderson follows a good gameplan.

Fight metric stats Anderson lands 4.55 strikes per minute and Latifi 2.37 strikes per minute (big disparity). If it hits the scorecards, Anderson should outwork Latifi unless repeatedly takes down him which seems unlikely without a ground and pound stoppage. I can see Latifi possibly landing his right hence the Latifi ITD hedge. You are right about respecting Latifi's power but for Anderson it's jab and circle right to avoid Latifi's right hand and Latifi has a fair size reach disadvantage (79' to 73.5').

Both guys have paths to victories and it's not completely lopsided. I was willing to drop 2 to 2.5 units on Latifi before tape watch.

Texeira makes more sense. I guess Andersons jab could draw out a combination from Latifi which could then allow Anderson to use his movement and time a takedown. I dont know. I feel very comfortable with Latifi, I think he has every effective advantage in this fight.

The stats are just a generalization of the fighter but obviously can change drastically depending on the opposition. I think Anderson lands less than 4.55 strikes per minute against Latifi. His takedown stats say 5.48/15min, I think he gets less than that as well.

 

[SBJJ]

I think you are way off on this one. Most importantly, you said a fighter won't take a fight unless he's ready. When you dangle a guaranteed pay ten times higher than his normal guarantee, guys will jump at the offer when they aren't ready. Also, these guys have families and lives outside of fighting. Do you really think all top level fighters are just constantly training and don't take time away? Most are fighting as it's their job to make a living. What is the point of doing this if you can't take time away to live a life and enjoy your earnings? There is a reason guys deny short notice fights when the money isn't right.

I believe Chad and his whole team admitted they were not ready. I'll never forget Chads face after he lost that fight. It looked like he won the lottery. I've never seen him react that way.

I think it's safe to say the payday played a major factor in him taking the fight

 

[ill800]

You seriously need to watch her fight with Jorina Baars if you are questioning her ability to take a shot.

In fact the fight also shows Cyborgs cardio, ability to deal with a much bigger and lengthier fighter than Nunes, ability to absorb leg kicks and how she deals with adversity.

The one who hasn’t taken a power shot is nunes.

I know cyborg is a monster but what happens when cyborg lands clean on nunes chin?

 

[Stunna77]

I believe Chad and his whole team admitted they were not ready. I'll never forget Chads face after he lost that fight. It looked like he won the lottery. I've never seen him react that way.

I think it's safe to say the payday played a major factor in him taking the fight

He was apparently on a long hunting trip when he got the call, had a foot injury, and did not have any training camp. The only reason he took that fight was because it was a no lose situation.

 

[SBJJ]

He was apparently on a long hunting trip when he got the call, had a foot injury, and did not have any training camp. The only reason he took that fight was because it was a no lose situation.

Bottom line. I think he has proved his cardio is legit

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

I've got a pretty sharp memory and I was on Calvillo, so I do remember you saying some pretty bold things in that fight. I went back and double checked, and you did only give Calvillo a 20-25% chance bro.

I never wrote "-400", hence the confusion. Anyways, the "20-25% chance" wasn't my attempt at serious capping, and besides, that's still -300 for Botelho, not -400.

But yes, I made a mistake in underrating fighters looking half-dead at weigh-ins. Fair point. It's a very similar mistake to raketmannen betting a huge amount on Ortega because of Holloway's own health concerns.

So if I'm a bad capper because of that, (despite being up 115% since my initial deposit a little over 2 months ago) then I guess raketmannen is downright awful, too.

 

[raketmannen]

I never wrote "-400", hence the confusion. Anyways, the "20-25% chance" wasn't my attempt at serious capping, and besides, that's still -300 for Botelho, not -400.

But yes, I made a mistake in underrating fighters looking half-dead at weigh-ins. Fair point. It's a very similar mistake to raketmannen betting a huge amount on Ortega because of Holloway's own health concerns.

So if I'm a bad capper because of that, (despite being up 115% since my initial deposit a little over 2 months ago) then I guess raketmannen is downright awful, too.

Oh everyone makes mistakes, the reason I was pointing it out and the difference is that I'm not telling people what they should bet or not bet on, and outright calling them insane without having a clue about their bankroll

 

[LEMONZEST]

I'm still figuring out who the new trolls are

Agreed. What are your leans for this card?

I am rewatching JJ/Gus 1 and man that fight is close.

 

[GrantSorenson]

Jeez this betting forum is degrading and I can see it being barren before long. imo its a combo of the newer posters just posting too much and being too confrontational and a tad ott combined with the older posters having a little distain for the newer posters anyway that you can just glean from their posts.

I'm not sure what the solution is because neither group will budge from their set ways im sure. All I can suggest is to simply put any user that is not really contributing or is causing problems on ignore. That way you just won't see their shit

 

[raketmannen]

Jeez this betting forum is degrading and I can see it being barren before long. imo its a combo of the newer posters just posting too much and being too confrontational and a tad ott combined with the older posters having a little distain for the newer posters anyway that you can just glean from their posts.

I'm not sure what the solution is because neither group will budge from their set ways im sure. All I can suggest is to simply put any user that is not really contributing or is causing problems on ignore. That way you just won't see their shit

Need a ritual to bring EZ back from the dead

 

[SBJJ]

Agreed. What are your leans for this card?

I am rewatching JJ/Gus 1 and man that fight is close.

Mendes large. Latifi small so far

 

[t6p]

Why cant Latifi win rounds by taking Anderson down? Why cant Latifi submit him with a Kimura? I put down 3u at -170 and 2u at -155. Apparently going against the circle but I feel good about it.

It's possible, although I don't see him winning multiple rounds that way. Anderson won't be easy to take/hold down and I don't think Latifi has the gas tank to sustain that kind of attack, especially being that Anderson has excellent cardio. My feeling is that the wrestling is likely going to cancel out (at least until later in the fight) and things will mostly play out on the feet. A kimura seems oddly specific being that Latifi has none on his record, but that would be included in the Latifi itd that I mentioned as his most likely path.

Looking back through the thread, it seems the majority are actually on Latifi. It's just been a few of us that like Anderson's chances at this price if he can avoid the KO. I'd be on Latifi if the odds were flipped for what it's worth.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Need a ritual to bring EZ back from the dead

RIP the GOAT

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Oh everyone makes mistakes, the reason I was pointing it out and the difference is that I'm not telling people what they should bet or not bet on, and outright calling them insane without having a clue about their bankroll

True, you just call people "dumb" and "beyond stupid" and make a big show of putting them on the ignore list. That's clearly much better than me stating I disagree with their bets.

 

[raketmannen]

True, you just call people "dumb" and "beyond stupid" and make a big show of putting them on the ignore list. That's clearly much better than me stating I disagree with their bets.

Yeah, because he straight up said no way in the world that fight was 19-19 5 posts after someone had linked the official scorecards saying it was 19-19. That was dumb af, some flat-earth level dumb, that was not an opinion, it was what it was*

 

[Soccer Steve]

Jeez this betting forum is degrading and I can see it being barren before long. imo its a combo of the newer posters just posting too much and being too confrontational and a tad ott combined with the older posters having a little distain for the newer posters anyway that you can just glean from their posts.

I'm not sure what the solution is because neither group will budge from their set ways im sure. All I can suggest is to simply put any user that is not really contributing or is causing problems on ignore. That way you just won't see their shit

IMO, years lurking and then being more of a contributor, taking a break, then coming back again, etc...the forum now is in one of the better spots. Pretty solid conversations. Always going to have nonsense, though. Were you around for the days of Budden? That was probably rock bottom, honestly. He was funny but shit he could derail this like no other.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Yeah, because he straight up said no way in the world that fight was 19-19 5 posts after someone had linked the official scorecards saying it was 19-19. That was dumb af, some flat-earth level dumb

Factually, I completely agree with you. And I had zero problems with your post then, even though I think Larthus is a good analyst.

I only point out the hypocrisy here because of your sudden problem with "aggressiveness" and "rudeness".

 

[raketmannen]

Factually, I completely agree with you. And I had zero problems with your post then, even though I think Larthus is a good analyst.

I only point out the hypocrisy here because of your sudden problem with "aggressiveness" and "rudeness".

Yeah sure I was a bit cranky at work when I wrote that