UFC 238 Cejudo vs Moraes

[Orion]

I think we're about to see Cerrone's body shot weakness show up again in this one

 

[Larthus]

I think Jessica Eye is going to take it fellas

 

[Soccer Steve]

I think Jessica Eye is going to take it fellas

Ok. How?

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I watched tape on KK and Grasso. Grassos tdd sucks but KK isnt really going for takedowns, so I except a kickboxing match where Grasso Has The faster hands imo.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Ok. How?

She has value at plus number hehe

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Just on my lunch break and I've read this strange headline that Alexa Grasso is the second coming of Floyd Mayweather! Crazy times we live in gents.

On serious note I think Grasso is at a severe disadvantage in the clinch. She has a good whizzer but often abandons it to land strikes or to try to push the head of her opponent. If shes not fighting hands shes going to get put into a double c-tie and kneed into oblivion.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Just on my lunch break and I've read this strange headline that Alexa Grasso is the second coming of Floyd Mayweather! Crazy times we live in gents.

On serious note I think Grasso is at a severe disadvantage in the clinch. She has a good whizzer but often abandons it to land strikes or to try to push the head of her opponent. If shes not fighting hands shes going to get put into a double c-tie and kneed into oblivion.

Dont drink alcohol at work , There is nothing about Floyd in this thread

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Dont drink alcohol at work

How else am I suppose to wash down these chicken dumplings?

 

[Soccer Steve]

She has value at plus number hehe

At +900 (5d) she has an implied probability of winning 10% of the time. If her and Shevchenko fought 10 times, do you think she wins once? Two times? Three times? 4 times!!??
Me neither. Therefore, no, she does not have value, even at +900.

 

[Deleted member 560591]

Does anyone actually believe the Jojo 2.0 bullshit ?

She hit a guard sub against one of the worst fighters of that division and she outgrappled debutant Lipski who clearly had some big flaws in that department + she slowed down significantly.

I think she will get chooked on saturday. Katlyn will hit the air and move constantly for 3 rounds. Better BJJ, cardio and output. Jojo is very stationary, slow on the feet and reacts bad to combinations. It will look like Katlyn is lighting her up even though she is landing like 10% lol.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

At +900 (5d) she has an implied probability of winning 10% of the time. If her and Shevchenko fought 10 times, do you think she wins once? Two times? Three times? 4 times!!??
Me neither. Therefore, no, she does not have value, even at +900.

I was joking, you are 100% but you know she has a plus number and it doesnt matter that she will lose, at least she has a plus number so value guys will hammer the line
Dont look at the fighters, bet the number
LOL

 

[ill800]

I was joking, you are 100% but you know she has a plus number and it doesnt matter that she will lose, at least she has a plus number so value guys will hammer the line
Dont look at the fighters, bet the number
LOL

And you still have no concept of implied probability, even though it’s been explained to you multiple times

I usually just ignore your posts but you have been quite annoying with this nonsense

People are trying to help you win money but you would rather be a long term loser and laugh at proven winners like you have superior betting knowledge

 

[Larthus]

At +900 (5d) she has an implied probability of winning 10% of the time. If her and Shevchenko fought 10 times, do you think she wins once? Two times? Three times? 4 times!!??
Me neither. Therefore, no, she does not have value, even at +900.

Except she’s going to win this time & that’s all that matters

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Does anyone actually believe the Jojo 2.0 bullshit ?

She hit a guard sub against one of the worst fighters of that division and she outgrappled debutant Lipski who clearly had some big flaws in that department + she slowed down significantly.

I think she will get chooked on saturday. Katlyn will hit the air and move constantly for 3 rounds. Better BJJ, cardio and output. Jojo is very stationary, slow on the feet and reacts bad to combinations. It will look like Katlyn is lighting her up even though she is landing like 10% lol.

Good analysis, but here's the problem; Chookagian does a poor job of taking advantage of an opponent's lack of defense (including most recently against Eye), fights timidly to the point of not even trying to counter in very safe circumstances, and is simply going to have one 50/50 decision after another. She lost her last one after winning the last few before then.

 

[ill800]

KK down to -115

I thought bettors might wisen up on this line but it seems I was wrong and people are still over valuing grasso and overreacting to kks last two losses

 

[turbozed]

I was joking, you are 100% but you know she has a plus number and it doesnt matter that she will lose, at least she has a plus number so value guys will hammer the line
Dont look at the fighters, bet the number
LOL

You should stop pushing this point. It's really the worse take I've seen in any betting forum. We live in a world that, at it's core, is based on probabilities. Until an event actually occurs, its odds of happening are always going to be a fraction or percentage. Probability is the only way to understand forecasting the future and, as a result, implied odds is the most useful way to understand betting.

 

[chemmy]

You should stop pushing this point. It's really the worse take I've seen in any betting forum. We live in a world that, at it's core, is based on probabilities. Until an event actually occurs, its odds of happening are always going to be a fraction or percentage. Probability is the only way to understand forecasting the future and, as a result, implied odds is the most useful way to understand betting.

Well said. I think him continuing to drive his point (or lack of) home week after week makes him seem a lot less intelligent than he probably is. He may actually have some beneficial insight to offer if his comments weren’t continuously overshadowed by such obviously flawed “rationale”.

 

[Hater Hater]

For sure. And it's funny that somehow people look at Lando as being some sort of average striker. The reality is that when he's fresh, he's dangerous as hell on the feet. His problem is his gas tank and inability to wisely use energy. That head kick flatlines most guys, yes. Flush, and right behind the ear.

I also think it's funny that people try to act like it's a negative that the couple of times that Tony has been actually hurt, he goes into those summersaults and stuff and is rolling around the cage. It's pretty obvious that he's recovering WHILE he does that crazy stuff. So while most guys get hurt and stay stationary and try to cover up (or just bite down on their mouthguard and blindly wing wild haymakers, praying one lands), Tony makes himself a moving target during the time he's recovering. How many follow up shots did Lando hit him with after that head kick? How many did Pettis land after he clipped him with that overhand?

Tony also sliced Pettis up as soon as Tony got guard. In fact, I can’t remember a time where Tony was overwhelmed or unaware.

 

[burge13]

Well said. I think him continuing to drive his point (or lack of) home week after week makes him seem a lot less intelligent than he probably is. He may actually have some beneficial insight to offer if his comments weren’t continuously overshadowed by such obviously flawed “rationale”.

He is the worst poster here by a very long way.

 

[Hater Hater]

Anyone actually have a path to victory for Rivera? He's a good fighter, but Yan, as far as I can see, is an absolutely nightmare match up for him. Better boxer, better chin, much more power and the grappling likely cancels out.

I don’t think the boxing of these two is as uneven as people think. For example, Rivera arguably had the cleaner win against Dodson as Dodson did hit Yan harder and more often (Yan did look more impressive because he pressured and hurt Dodson more).

We don’t know who the better wrestler is but I would bet on Rivera.

People are underrating Rivera after the Sterling fight but Sterling is an awkward matchup that is completely different than Yan. Rivera had a lot of trouble with Sterlings reach as Rivera didn’t have the ability to close the distance and isn’t a swarming style of fighter. He won’t need either against Yan.

Edit: I just looked at UFC stats and I was wrong about the Dodson fights. Yan got hit less by Dodson than Rivera did which makes Yan’s win even more impressive.

Edit 2: Rewatched Dodson vs Yan (using slow mo when it the exchanges were hard to see). UFC stats is on crack. They missed half of Dodson’s lands and must have counted one for Yan every time Dodson’s Afro shook. Don’t get me wrong, Yan clearly won but the stats are garbage and Dodson has to lose the Afro.