UFC 238 Cejudo vs Moraes
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Probably not
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If Cejudo lasts til the third i think he takes this by dec
Marlon slowed down against Dodson across the fight and once the third rolls round it will be a battle of the basics which is Marlons switchkicks and guillotine game vs Cejudos wrestling and darting in and out of the pocket striking
Henry is one of the few guys if not the only guy who can compete with Marlon in terms of speed
Marlon slowed down against Dodson across the fight and once the third rolls round it will be a battle of the basics which is Marlons switchkicks and guillotine game vs Cejudos wrestling and darting in and out of the pocket striking
Henry is one of the few guys if not the only guy who can compete with Marlon in terms of speed
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rare case of favorite or pass. +135 isn't a good price for a debutant who has looked decent against low level competition. he's not very good in any area. I expect Wineland to outbox him to a decision. Only chance Popov has at winning is testing the poor defense of EW and landing some random shit like he did vs Geku Hexi. Popov has some subs on his record, but they're also over low level opponents, Wineland hasn't hit a takedown since 2011 and I don't expect this is the fight he turns into an offensive wrestler.
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I just had a horrible thought that Ferguson could be ending Cerrone's career tonight while re-watching the Pettis fight. I take it all back. Cerrone is fucked.
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Don’t know you bro but I am sorry to hear that. Hope you are doing as well as you can be…
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Thank you man.
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Wineland arguably won his last fight vs Alejandro Perez (ranked 13 at the time). He didn't look shot at all. Instead of wikicapping try actually watching video next time.
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I think Shevchenko deserves her price, only path to victory for Eye is dependent on Shevchenko being low volume and not landing takedowns. I think Shevchenko wins by DEC most of the time, I can see a finish if Eye pushes the grappling, she will fail on her takedowns and tire herself. If they end up on the ground for extended periods in later rounds then I could see Shevchenko getting a SUB.
Suarez was overvalued but she should still be -550. Ansaroff has good takedown defense and shes tough but I have a hard time seeing her getting up once shes down. Shes not going to KO Suarez so shes not finishing, she has to win a DEC. She can prob stop some takedowns but Suarez will just chain another one and eventually get her down. Ansaroff can wrap her up on the ground and burn some time defending takedowns, she wont expose her back and she may be able to kick off Suarez hips to momentarily get back to her feet, I like Suarez by DEC. Suarez can finish if she can get Ansaroff down early, open up the GnP early and force Ansaroff into mistakes that could end in a SUB. I dont think shes going to GnP TKO though.
Yan is better everywhere, he should be -400. Only path to victory I see for Rivera would be a 1st round KO. He very likely cant take Yan down, if he somehow does he wont be effective. He doesnt throw enough or effectively enough to win a DEC. I see Yan winning by DEC, Rivera has a good chin and he recovers quickly but Yan builds as the fight goes and Rivera gets worse. This could turn into a fire fight at points but I think if Yan finishes it will be in rd3.
Sterling should be -300. Munhoz only chance comes through his calf kicks, it will open up much more of his offense if he can land them consistantly but I dont think he will. Sterling will be light on his feet, wont engage a lot in boxing range and if Munhoz can get close, Sterling will likely tie him up instead of looking for a leg takedown. Sterling will throw more and he will land more. I think Munhoz has to finish but he isnt known for his standing KOs(Garbrandt was all about the matchup) and his guillotine is going to be hard to hit on Sterling.
Lewis is a better fighter than Stewart, he has basically every advantage, I cap him around -200. Stewart only wins by KO and I dont think it will be likely to occur in the first half of the fight, Lewis will be minding his ps and qs but may start to falter later in the fight. I think Lewis wins a comfortable DEC but may get a finish depending on Stewarts aggression and ferocity in pursuing him. Maybe he can finish through takedowns and grappling as well but still, I lean towards Lewis DEC.
XYan wont be backing down, the first round may be competitive but she will take over as the fight continues. Hill has had cardio problems for a while and her mental game is def lacking. I can see XYan winning all three round fairly convincingly or win the last 2 rounds fairly convincingly. Almost positive she wins round 3 and by a lot since she will be moving forward throwing 120+ strikes and Hill will be moving back throwing far less. I cap Yan around -185.
Calderwoods fight is trickier than it appear, at first glance you might think this fight is definitely going to DEC but both fighters have paths to finish. If Calderwood looks for takedowns, she will prob get them but Chook is very quick to throw up the armbar or triangle. On the feet, Chooks legs body is wide open to the kick and her defense is generally terrible. I still think ths fights see the card a lot of the time but its not a lock imo. As to who wins the DEC, I favor Calderwood, I cap her around -150. She will be the one moving forward and she will be the one landing the harder strikes, strike counts may appear close(which s a worry) but Calderwood will land more and land more effectively. I think he kicks will play a key role. If it goes to the ground Calderwood will be on top, I'm hoping Chook just keeps working back to her feet instead on throwing SUBs.
I dont see a lot of finishes this card, I expect a finish in Ferguson-Cerrone and Moraes-Cejudo. Lewis-Stewart and Ivanov-Tuivasa could see finishes but beyond that I'm not seeing much. Maybe Wineland and Yan could get a KO since they will be fighting a standup fight against lesser opponents. Anyone feels strongly on any ITD, FDGTD plays?
Suarez was overvalued but she should still be -550. Ansaroff has good takedown defense and shes tough but I have a hard time seeing her getting up once shes down. Shes not going to KO Suarez so shes not finishing, she has to win a DEC. She can prob stop some takedowns but Suarez will just chain another one and eventually get her down. Ansaroff can wrap her up on the ground and burn some time defending takedowns, she wont expose her back and she may be able to kick off Suarez hips to momentarily get back to her feet, I like Suarez by DEC. Suarez can finish if she can get Ansaroff down early, open up the GnP early and force Ansaroff into mistakes that could end in a SUB. I dont think shes going to GnP TKO though.
Yan is better everywhere, he should be -400. Only path to victory I see for Rivera would be a 1st round KO. He very likely cant take Yan down, if he somehow does he wont be effective. He doesnt throw enough or effectively enough to win a DEC. I see Yan winning by DEC, Rivera has a good chin and he recovers quickly but Yan builds as the fight goes and Rivera gets worse. This could turn into a fire fight at points but I think if Yan finishes it will be in rd3.
Sterling should be -300. Munhoz only chance comes through his calf kicks, it will open up much more of his offense if he can land them consistantly but I dont think he will. Sterling will be light on his feet, wont engage a lot in boxing range and if Munhoz can get close, Sterling will likely tie him up instead of looking for a leg takedown. Sterling will throw more and he will land more. I think Munhoz has to finish but he isnt known for his standing KOs(Garbrandt was all about the matchup) and his guillotine is going to be hard to hit on Sterling.
Lewis is a better fighter than Stewart, he has basically every advantage, I cap him around -200. Stewart only wins by KO and I dont think it will be likely to occur in the first half of the fight, Lewis will be minding his ps and qs but may start to falter later in the fight. I think Lewis wins a comfortable DEC but may get a finish depending on Stewarts aggression and ferocity in pursuing him. Maybe he can finish through takedowns and grappling as well but still, I lean towards Lewis DEC.
XYan wont be backing down, the first round may be competitive but she will take over as the fight continues. Hill has had cardio problems for a while and her mental game is def lacking. I can see XYan winning all three round fairly convincingly or win the last 2 rounds fairly convincingly. Almost positive she wins round 3 and by a lot since she will be moving forward throwing 120+ strikes and Hill will be moving back throwing far less. I cap Yan around -185.
Calderwoods fight is trickier than it appear, at first glance you might think this fight is definitely going to DEC but both fighters have paths to finish. If Calderwood looks for takedowns, she will prob get them but Chook is very quick to throw up the armbar or triangle. On the feet, Chooks legs body is wide open to the kick and her defense is generally terrible. I still think ths fights see the card a lot of the time but its not a lock imo. As to who wins the DEC, I favor Calderwood, I cap her around -150. She will be the one moving forward and she will be the one landing the harder strikes, strike counts may appear close(which s a worry) but Calderwood will land more and land more effectively. I think he kicks will play a key role. If it goes to the ground Calderwood will be on top, I'm hoping Chook just keeps working back to her feet instead on throwing SUBs.
I dont see a lot of finishes this card, I expect a finish in Ferguson-Cerrone and Moraes-Cejudo. Lewis-Stewart and Ivanov-Tuivasa could see finishes but beyond that I'm not seeing much. Maybe Wineland and Yan could get a KO since they will be fighting a standup fight against lesser opponents. Anyone feels strongly on any ITD, FDGTD plays?
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UFC 238 PBP/Discussion: https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufc-238-pbp-discussion.3968295/
piglord
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you haven't watched any of popov's fights yet you have no idea why wineland is the favorite? c'mon man.
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Popov's leg kicks are legit though. Throws them with power and speed, no telegraphing.
Not saying I'd for sure bet him as a small dog but I think he should be evens at least against a much more shopworn (albeit experienced against better competition) guy.
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I saw the fight already, smart ass.
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Good grief. Then I'd suggest you go back & watch the fight again. This time sober.
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Lol... 3 minutes into round 1 I started to look for this post to comment ... then boom rivera gets dropped. like I had said rivera knew it was do or die and put his balls on the line. didnt win but proved his worth and proved he shouldn't have been +290
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What's the odds on winning two fights in a row on the stool.....at the end of round 2?
Jesus Tony.
Jesus Tony.
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told ya, you didnt have to be funny about it.
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I had Grasso, Ivanov, Ferguson, Darren Stewart, Kattar... And the obvious Valentine, Saurez and Yan which eveeyone had... My bad picks were Pedro, I was confident in him and obviously Marlon.
I'd I had followed by gut I would have had 8 winners out of ten and a couple of them were underdogs.
I think a mixture of things I do Infuences my picks and makes me make changes that for the most part don't help. Bevon Lewis was a big one, soon as the fight was accounced I was on Stewart.. And then everything I was reading and seeing was telling me he basically has no chance and I never played the fight in the end.
I'd I had followed by gut I would have had 8 winners out of ten and a couple of them were underdogs.
I think a mixture of things I do Infuences my picks and makes me make changes that for the most part don't help. Bevon Lewis was a big one, soon as the fight was accounced I was on Stewart.. And then everything I was reading and seeing was telling me he basically has no chance and I never played the fight in the end.
