Watching Dobson get outboxed at times by Lauren mueller
I favor Mazo but really wouldn’t feel comfortable betting either at current odds
Dobson could decide to wrestle and if that happens Mazo is in trouble
It’s a clear path to victory and Dobson would be dumb to try to stand with Mazo for 3 rounds
I was initially going to bet very big on Mazo.
However, after watching tape, I decided to put a mere 1u on Mazo at +115. Dobson actually has some legitimate striking skills. She can throw competent straight rights, right hooks, and even a respectable (if painfully telegraphed) right hook, all of which are rare on this level of WMMA. Her jab is worse than Mazo's and a little shorter, but it might have slightly more impact.
In fact, from the standpoint of raw skills, she should have brutalized Ariel Beck (who has no business competing in MMA) inside of a minute and dominated Lauren Mueller.
Instead, Dobson had a close, competitive fight with Beck until Beck gave up from taking a few hard strikes and Mueller edged her out in a close decision.
Why? Because Dobson fights the exact opposite of how she looks. You would think a tatted up black lesbian would be pretty tough and aggressive, right? Instead, she fights how you would expect a blonde valley girl who cries if she chips a fingernail to.
She will retreat backwards like her life depends upon it in response to the weakest strike. She hates any sort of contact and it will disrupt her rhythm and cause her to get very tentative.
EVEN when she lands, and EVEN when she has her opponent hurt, she won't start getting aggressive and swarming her with more strikes, but will often reset or (I wish I was joking) retreat.
However, Dobson is a very new fighter to MMA and hasn't fought in over a year and a half. She might have fixed this as well as other flaws, although it should be noted that her improvement from her time on TUF to her last fight was depressingly limited.
Too many uncertainties here about both fighters, so I limited my risk to a unit on the plus side.
I think the current odds (Mazo at -130, Dobson at +110) are close to accurate.