Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion -- 2021 and Beyond

[benebox]

No one knows what will happen w BTC and anyone who says they do is full of shit.

It's definitely a gamble. However, its a question of whether it's a sensible one. Anyway, let's not turn this into a crypto thread as we already have one.

 

[Monster Meat]

$210/$200
Mahomes over 1.5 pass tds -200
Niners ml

 

[ill800]

Seriously doubt Ingram plays the week for the ravens

personally I don’t think it will matter much

#getonthebus
#actionjackson
#bigtruss
#whendoplayerpropsdrop

 

[BatBoyJG]

Seriously doubt Ingram plays the week for the ravens

personally I don’t think it will matter much

#getonthebus
#actionjackson
#bigtruss
#whendoplayerpropsdrop

If so, it’s best to wait. The public will overreact to that and bet the Titans

 

[ill800]

If so, it’s best to wait. The public will overreact to that and bet the Titans

he didn’t practice today. He tweaked the calf last going when he went full speed.

Lines been going from 9 to 10 and back to 9. Personally -9.5 was good enough for me.

Patriots should’ve beat them last week. Their defense isn’t going to be able to stop the ravens. Derrick Henry needs to have a monster game early or it’s going to be rg3 time come 4th quarter

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Been bleeding too many units past week or two from nba taking indefinite break from that garbage.

Have action on 9ers and hawks. I'm kind of worried about investing in ravens. I think they win but -10 is a big number, Derrick Henry looks unstoppable and if tannehil actually shows up unlike last game it could pose even more danger. Maybe I'm overthinking things and titans get smashed still on the fence. Chiefs spread also seems too big imo if Fuller suits up. Like the over on chiefs game.

 

[BTC_ANDERSON_BELFORT]

No one knows what will happen w BTC and anyone who says they do is full of shit.

lmfao i just told u exactly what was gonna happen and u say ignorant shit like this... youre a clown, i just got some nice profits from selling at 8500 like i said in the previous post

 

[Dathorn]

Been bleeding too many units past week or two from nba taking indefinite break from that garbage.

Have action on 9ers and hawks. I'm kind of worried about investing in ravens. I think they win but -10 is a big number, Derrick Henry looks unstoppable and if tannehil actually shows up unlike last game it could pose even more danger. Maybe I'm overthinking things and titans get smashed still on the fence. Chiefs spread also seems too big imo if Fuller suits up. Like the over on chiefs game.

As the guy who was preaching about the Titans and is real big on them, I agree with you. -10 is too big. The difference in this game and the last one is that the Titans defense will absolutely not be able to stop the Ravens offense. I will be buying down the line to -7 at -155. I like that value and then ill be putting their ML in a parlay somewhere. Ravens could blow Titans out 42-14, but i also wouldn't be shocked to see a 42-35

Chiefs/Texans takes us right back to where we were last week. What Texans team will show up? They have almost the same potential offense, but KC is obviously just more consistent. Mahomes is the better QB, Texans defense is the better defense (if they show up). I would take the Chiefs to win way more often than not, but i also think the over is probably a better play. I have trouble buying -420 ML or -10 on a paper defense and vs an elite offense (on a good day), both O lines have left their QB to fend for themselves on and off all year and Texans have a pass rush with Watt back in there.

I think i'm on GB at home. GB has the better WR/RB/Defense/O Line, Hawks just have the better QB. Seattle RBs putting up 19 yards last game... it's just hurts them too much. Probably buy this down to GB -3.

 

[Dathorn]

lmfao i just told u exactly what was gonna happen and u say ignorant shit like this... youre a clown, i just got some nice profits from selling at 8500 like i said in the previous post
View attachment 707357

BTC never hit 8500, So good job selling at 100 over market value. Must be selling to some weird people overpaying and not looking at the market. So your 8500 prediction is wrong, sorry.

Also, they were talking about a 2 year future. BTC raises and falls 400-500 on any given day, that's not a big move. It's happened 5 times in the last month alone. Predicting a one day variance like that is not really predicting much. You can definitely make money on that, but TrueAscension statement is 100% fact and has nothing to do with BTC raising 400 on tuesday and dropping right back down on wednesday.

Now please take your toxic attitude and bitcoin talk and go to the crypto threads.

 

[ill800]

Read an article a while back about buying points. Guy did a study and found that basically it wasn’t worth the chalk

 

[ill800]

As the guy who was preaching about the Titans and is real big on them, I agree with you. -10 is too big. The difference in this game and the last one is that the Titans defense will absolutely not be able to stop the Ravens offense. I will be buying down the line to -7 at -155. I like that value and then ill be putting their ML in a parlay somewhere. Ravens could blow Titans out 42-14, but i also wouldn't be shocked to see a 42-35

Chiefs/Texans takes us right back to where we were last week. What Texans team will show up? They have almost the same potential offense, but KC is obviously just more consistent. Mahomes is the better QB, Texans defense is the better defense (if they show up). I would take the Chiefs to win way more often than not, but i also think the over is probably a better play. I have trouble buying -420 ML or -10 on a paper defense and vs an elite offense (on a good day), both O lines have left their QB to fend for themselves on and off all year and Texans have a pass rush with Watt back in there.

I think i'm on GB at home. GB has the better WR/RB/Defense/O Line, Hawks just have the better QB. Seattle RBs putting up 19 yards last game... it's just hurts them too much. Probably buy this down to GB -3.

How many yards is Henry going to have if they score 35? 400?

he had 185 last week and they put up 14. Baltimore’s secondary is just as good as ne. And I’d argue they have better run stoppers with Williams and pierce in the middle

titans won’t sniff 30 with the way the ravens control the clock. I’d be very surprised if they break 20

 

[Dathorn]

Read an article a while back about buying points. Guy did a study and found that basically it wasn’t worth the chalk

I'd be interested to see what was included in the "study". If he included half points, if it was all sports, if it was just one or two sports. Low scoring sports like hockey/soccer or high scoring sports like nba. Who is he studying? Winning bettors? Random friends? Total site results? How many bets of each kind are being made? Are they betting heavy favorites or close games? Are they buying points at breaking points like -3.5 to -3 in nfl are they just buying random amounts like -12 to -9? Are they weighing all points to be even, nhl to nba? Surely you can't assume buying 1 point in nhl is equivalent to buying 1 point in the nba.

It is uncommon buying half a point or one or two points is the difference in a game, but on the flip side, buying myself half a point from -3.5 to -3 or -7.5 to -7 has saved me from numerous bets. At the same time, it has cost me some extra chalk too. I'm not arguing with the study being wrong, but i think a generalized statement like "Buying points isn't worth the chalk" seems unreliable to me. Study could totally be right, but so many variables i wouldn't trust it as a general statement. Would need to see said study to decide if it's worth it. Tons of "studies" are "published" with limited input and results or right out flawed input.

This is doubt in the quality of the study, not in you of course.

How many yards is Henry going to have if they score 35? 400?

he had 185 last week and they put up 14. Baltimore’s secondary is just as good as ne. And I’d argue they have better run stoppers with Williams and pierce in the middle

titans won’t sniff 30 with the way the ravens control the clock. I’d be very surprised if they break 20

Titans passing game is far more capable than they appeared last week. They could've passed more if they needed to and Tannehill did show up when it mattered. Don't sleep on the titans passing game just because the pats couldn't stop Henry or score.

If the Jets can put up 21, and the bills can put up 17, let's not pretend Titans Offense isn't leagues above both these teams. A possibility doesn't mean it's likely, but it is far from a zero chance.

I do agree with you mostly. I think it's more likely the Ravens win by 14 or more than a close game, i just mean i wouldn't be super shocked if the Titans put up 20 or more. Ravens D is as good as Pats D, or in the same range higher or lower. If i was pressed to make a score for score pick i would say 38-20. Somewhere in that range. I still think i am personally more comfortable at -7 -155 than -10.5 at -110.

I am definitely on the Ravens by a gap, no question here. Probably stagger my bets. Like some at -10.5 and some at -7. I am just a fan of buying points at break points. I might end up losing some cash in the long run, but I am fine with my results.

 

[ill800]

I'd be interested to see what was included in the "study". If he included half points, if it was all sports, if it was just one or two sports. Low scoring sports like hockey/soccer or high scoring sports like nba. Who is he studying? Winning bettors? Random friends? Total site results? How many bets of each kind are being made? Are they betting heavy favorites or close games? Are they buying points at breaking points like -3.5 to -3 in nfl are they just buying random amounts like -12 to -9? Are they weighing all points to be even, nhl to nba? Surely you can't assume buying 1 point in nhl is equivalent to buying 1 point in the nba.

It is uncommon buying half a point or one or two points is the difference in a game, but on the flip side, buying myself half a point from -3.5 to -3 or -7.5 to -7 has saved me from numerous bets. I'm not arguing with the study being wrong, but i think a generalized statement like "Buying points isn't worth the chalk" seems unreliable to me. Study could totally be right, but so many variables i wouldn't trust it as a general statement. Would need to see said study to decide if it's worth it. Tons of "studies" are "published" with limited input and results or right out flawed input.

This is doubt in the quality of the study, not in you of course.


Titans passing game is far more capable than they appeared last week. They could've passed more if they needed to and Tannehill did show up when it mattered. Don't sleep on the titans passing game just because the pats couldn't stop Henry or score.

If the Jets can put up 21, and the bills can put up 17, let's not pretend Titans Offense isn't leagues above both these teams. A possibility doesn't mean it's likely, but it is far from a zero chance.

I do agree with you mostly. I think it's more likely the Ravens win by 14 or more than a close game, i just mean i wouldn't be super shocked if the Titans put up 20 or more. Ravens D is as good as Pats D, or in the same range higher or lower. If i was pressed to make a score for score pick i would say 38-20. Somewhere in that range. I still think i am personally more comfortable at -7 -155 than -10.5 at -110.

I am definitely on the Ravens by a gap, no question here. Probably stagger my bets. Like some at -10.5 and some at -7. I am just a fan of buying points at break points. I might end up losing some cash in the long run, but I am fine with my results.

Pretty sure the study was done by someone from bangthebook, probably last year though. Dunno if it would still be on the site

I know those points cost me an extra $500 last week with the saints

 

[Dathorn]

Pretty sure the study was done by someone from bangthebook, probably last year though. Dunno if it would still be on the site

I know those points cost me an extra $500 last week with the saints

Yeah, I got rekt on the Saints too. Overconfidence got us. Buying the points surely makes the difference far less than it actually does, and therefor is not worth it on a long timeline regardless of winning some bets due to it. I just don't know if I could convince myself buying the half point at breaks is not worth it. I would go crazy betting -3.5 and not buying the half point at the cost of like $20-$40. Buying the 3.5 points to get Ravens at -7 is probably on the end of not worth it, but buying GB down to -3 over -4 seems like a must.

Maybe my brain is just broken. I want to manipulate the lines. I need to feel right about the possibilities. Though you do make me feel like i'm just gonna take the Ravens spread and not buy points.

 

[Vir_Ars]

Sorry for my ignorance, but what is "buy points"?

 

[Red_2]

Sorry for my ignorance, but what is "buy points"?

I think it's a term referring to point spreads or handicaps.

 

[Dathorn]

Sorry for my ignorance, but what is "buy points"?

On some books you can move the spread by paying odds. So say the line is Ravens -3.5 at -110, some books let you buy points. So you can get Ravens -3 at like -125. Or Ravens -2.5 at like -145.

That way the game hinges on a field goal instead of more than a field goal.You get worse odds for a better spread.

 

[burge13]

Read an article a while back about buying points. Guy did a study and found that basically it wasn’t worth the chalk

Know who did the article or have a link? Been having this argument with a mate for years who buys points often on every market he can. I say it's stupid so be an interesting read

 

[Vir_Ars]

On some books you can move the spread by paying odds. So say the line is Ravens -3.5 at -110, some books let you buy points. So you can get Ravens -3 at like -125. Or Ravens -2.5 at like -145.

That way the game hinges on a field goal instead of more than a field goal.You get worse odds for a better spread.

I thought that was the usual thing, in my book you can choose a lot of spreads, even + for a favourite, but yeah bad odds.

 

[ill800]

Ravens player props popping up