"In 2007 the UFC only had a few top HW fighters - Sylvia (Fedor demolished in Affliction), AA (fedor demolished in Affliction), Mir (who was only just recovering from his accident, getting beaten by Vera and PeDePano, and Fedor later demolished him anyway in Bellator) and Randy (who wanted to fight Fedor outside the UFC)... aside from that it was Nog, Herring and Mirko who came from Pride (who Fedor had already beaten), and Werdum (who he later met in SF)."
Then why did Cro Cop and Big Nog go to the UFC in 2007, if the HWs weren't that good there?
Good question. It was likely the best thing at the time offered to them, like M-1 Global offer was the best thing offered to Fedor and Affliction was best for Barnett, etc. I know Mirko got a great deal. They also did it a bit earlier than Fedor, the landscape was in motion and there was more on offer the later time went. Obviously without Fedor in the UFC, they also could have thought there was a good opportunity to win the belt with obviously CC failing, but Nog was successful (at least with the interim belt whilst Randy was busy trying to get to Affliction!). An interesting time it was.
You're forgetting that Cro Cop got decimated by Gonzaga and decisioned by Kongo in 2007. And Vera was undefeated at HW and had a huge win over Mir at that time.
No i didn't forget that.
So in the UFC, it's Mir, Gonzaga, Couture, Kongo, Werdum, Brandon Vera, Sylvia, and Andrei Arlovski in 2007. So it's more than just a few good HWs.
"OUTSIDE the UFC there was Roy Nelson, Hunt, Overeem, Rizzo, Buentello, Ben Rothwell, Josh Barnett, Kharitanov and pretty much the rest of the old guard"
I wouldn't ever tout Vera as a top heavyweight - he was beaten by Sylvia prior to Sylvia leaving for Affliction. AA had beaten Werdum. Werdum was still on his way up and later beat Gonzaga. The top guys were AA and Sylvia in the UFC prior to the arrival of the next gen Brock/Cain/JDS/Carwin/DC etc... who hadn't arrived by the time Fedor had already signed to M-1 (and were super green either way).
As I said, M-1 with Affliction were working hard at the time behind the scenes offering big money to top HW's for the new org. Both Andrei and Sylvia were already in talks and were paid almost a million dollars at the time (IIRC) to leave the UFC - unheard of at the time - Fedor would have been banking on this new arrangement going forward with Affliction as he got a cut of the profits too.
So his decision AT THE TIME when signing with anyone was: all these existing top HWs being taken up by Affliction, getting paid well PLUS getting part of the PPV cut, plus being able to keep his name and likeness, being able to fight in Sambo if he chose, freedom to fight in other organisations (as long as they co-promoted), and with a good chance of fighting Sylvia and AA and Randy (who as said was trying his hardest to get away from the UFC, in the end unsuccessfully)
vs
Fighting guys he'd already fought (MIrko, Nog, Herring), and some lesser known, less proven up and coming HWs, but being under the strong control of the UFC, give up your likeness, less freedom, etc.
Not to mention Dana who'd regularly played down Fedor for his own bargaining power and was on massive promotion push to deflect away Fedor's greatness to the public, pushing Silva as #1p4p or GOAT or whatever - counter programming Affliction, etc.
So Fedor's decision to side with M-1 doesn't constitute ducking, in hindsight who knew what was around the corner and obviously M-1 screwed the rest of his career with their antics, and the UFC went from strength to strength. But you can't hold it against Fedor at the time.
(Oh and once that fell through the UFC ramped up a massive discrediting campaign to smear Fedor at every possibility through most of the early part of this decade, no wonder Fedor would never sign to the UFC from that point)
Fedor already beat Hunt. Overeem literally just went to HW after getting smashed by Shogun in 2007 so he wasn't a big HW challenge for Fedor just yet.
And in 2009, Fedor had a choice between fighting Brett Rogers in Strikeforce or fighting UFC HW Champ, 2000 NCAA Div I wrestling Champ Lesnar at UFC 103 in Dallas, and we know what he chose.
Fedor never had the 'choice' between Brett Rogers in Strikeforce or Lesnar. As I said, Fedor was in the middle of his contract with M-1 at that point so was unable to just fight who he wanted. Affliction 3 had just folded caused by Barnett pissing hot and killed the event (and company). If you think Fedor had the 'choice', then Randy ALSO had a 'choice' to fight Fedor in Affliction (hint: obviously he didn't as you can't just walk out on a contract with a promotion). And M-1 were stuck with making it a 'co-promotion' deal with UFC to build their brand as they knew they had the biggest fighter in the game contracted to them. It failed but that's business. It wasn't right for both parties, but it doesn't mean anyone 'ducked' - guarantee Fedor would have fought Brock if a deal could have been made between the two companies. Hence there was a huge narrative with fans for wanting the UFC to gobble up everything just so all the fights can be made, (a shortsighted view IMO) but here were are.
And ducked Overeem in strikeforce too, so that completes the trifecta.
You could potentially make the argument he 'ducked' Overeem in Strikefore if you stretch it a lot. I'm not sure if you were around watching back then but as mentioned above by 2009 M-1 had just been burned badly by the collapse of Affliction due to drug testing, which would have cost them a lot of money. Couple that with Overeem being over in Dream on the biggest juice crusade of his career, they were rightfully very wary of this happening again, as again, they were 'co-promoting' with Strikeforce (something the UFC wouldn't do, per the above comment regarding the failed Brock fight)... meaning they have skin in the game. I mean EVERYONE knew Overeem was massively juicing.
Anyway, they said they'd accept the fight with Overeem as long as there was Olympic drug testing in place. It never happened. Also as you said, Overeem really hadn't beaten anyone - he was smashed by Shogun and Kharitanov a couple of years earlier, went to Japan looked great on roids, but suddenly deserves to fight the HW GOAT and Fedor's 'ducking' if he doesn't accept!? Think if that happened to Stipe now, would you argue the same? Someone like Brandon Vera goes over to One FC (gets roided to shit, smashes some lower lever guys) and then calls out to the UFC demanding a fight with Stipe and if the UFC/Stipe doesn't accept Stipe's "ducking"?! Nah.... Ok Overeem situation was maybe not Vera-level example, but perhaps Mirko when he went back to Japan level... or Bader to Bellator (less 'proven' than Baden even) - anyway you get what I mean.
So at the end of the day, M-1 dreamed big, but failed badly and the last 3rd of Fedor's career suffered a lot due to it. And Dana/UFC certainly rubbed their noses in it as it happened. That's business. That's life. But I strongly believe all things being equal Fedor would have fought any person able to be put in front of him.
Cheers
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