UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen

Naught2Sixty said:
Imagine you fucked up a burger at McDonald's, they fire you and make you give back your paycheck.
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More like you design a state of the art bridge, they build it, find out you smoked weed, destroy the bridge. #legalize it all
 
I like Barboza-Amirkhani FGTD at +170.
I doubt Amirkhani can take him down and keep him there, and I also doubt he gets koed by Barboza.
 
Anyone on Rothwell-Tybura?
Like Rothwell but he is even slower than Tybura, so it's a concern.
 
Well sherbros, I know I said I’d be gone for a while but I couldn’t leave you guys hanging here. I looked back at some of my reddit posts and I honestly provided some savant level handicapping with the appreciation of 1 or 2 upvotes while the top rated comment is some bullshit like “PHILLIPE LINS IS GOING TO MAKE A NAME OUT OF ARVLOSKI.”

Anyways, the past is the past and I'm looking forward to a positive weekend.

Main event is fireworks, but yikes I see no value in the moneylines. Striker vs. striker and both guys have had devastating losses before, Marlon fighting for the title whereas Sandhagen got wiped out by Aljo (in a title eliminator?). Marlon doesn't have any wrestling to expose that weakness and I doubt Sandhagen will put himself in a position to get guillotined as the taller fighter. The only thing that I can SENSE from this fight is a conservative approach from both guys. The only way I see this fight ending inside the distance is if Marlon goes too ham on Sandhagen and finishes him or gets finished himself. I'm surprised that the line favors Sandhagen to finish Moraes, but I guess it can be justified due to the fact that Moraes has 2.5 rounds of gas before he starts to really become taxed. I'd say that value is on Sandhagen and GTD, need a better price then that to back Marlon as he is essentially KO or bust here. Moraes doesn't have anything in his grappling to mix with his devastating striking, seriously possesses the most powerful kicks in the lower weights. Also, the Cejudo fight might have permanently dropped Marlons stock. Cejudo is just a different human being. We saw how Paulo got destroyed by leg kicks but Cejudo just threw all that in the back of his mind. I have about a .5 U confidence in Cory, simply because this is a 5 round BW fight, and Marlon doesn’t have wrestling. Leans for this is Cory and the over (1U on the over)

Egger vs. Tracy Cortes. Now I don't know jack shit about Egger but what I saw from Tracy's last fight is that she is good fade material in the future. She is one of the few girls who has a wrestling style, but it's not nice to look at. Sloppy takedowns, basic top control, and from what I remember her conditioning and striking were not UFC level. I'm tempted to bet a unit purely because I can kinda tell that this line is overpriced due to Tracy's good looks. .25-.5U on Egger by decision.


I love my boy Giga, but I’m not too sure about Omar morales. I remember morales looked like an amazing kickboxer.... but, Giga is literally an elite kickboxer lol. One of the few kickboxing guys in their prime to transition into MMA and although Giga has looked good, I don’t think his ceiling is too high. Yeah he can land reversals and hold his own on the ground, but he’s using techniques that won’t be high probability against top 10-15 dudes and he will have to rely on his elite kickboxing. My one remark about Giga is that he is a bit pillowfisted, accurate but pillowfisted nonetheless. I think Omar has a bit more OOMF in his punches and kicks that could either finish a gassed Giga or the body (leg ?) kicks can set up Giga to be slower in the 2nd and 3rd rounds where Giga will be gassed. Amazing matchmaking from UFC, value was on Giga when he was at +175 and there is still some value in his decision prop, the only fight I watched of morales was him vs. Benitez where I was very impressed. I just find it odd to be laying chalk when the guy he is facing is a much more experienced striker and the fight will be taking place 90% from range. I will be looking to drop 2.5 U on FGTD, don’t think Giga will wilt to Omar and Giga can only KO someone by flush liver kick.


Other fighters i liked off the bat was Barboza, Impa and possibly Rothwell.

Honestly had to write this for my own sake so I don’t go chasing losses or parlaying like a degen.
 
Wiktoruspro said:
Tybura appears to be in good shape, good bet for +number lovers

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I'm on Rothwell.
I am 90% sure Tybura can't knock him out nor can he submit him, and I think Rothwell is gonna look good for the judges by walking him down, or maybe even koing him.
Wanted to hedge with Tybura dec in case but +240 isn't enough considering I already payed -145 for Rothwell.
 
Vitor Apologist said:
Well sherbros, I know I said I’d be gone for a while but I couldn’t leave you guys hanging here. I looked back at some of my reddit posts and I honestly provided some savant level handicapping with the appreciation of 1 or 2 upvotes while the top rated comment is some bullshit like “PHILLIPE LINS IS GOING TO MAKE A NAME OUT OF ARVLOSKI.”

Anyways, the past is the past and I'm looking forward to a positive weekend.

Main event is fireworks, but yikes I see no value in the moneylines. Striker vs. striker and both guys have had devastating losses before, Marlon fighting for the title whereas Sandhagen got wiped out by Aljo (in a title eliminator?). Marlon doesn't have any wrestling to expose that weakness and I doubt Sandhagen will put himself in a position to get guillotined as the taller fighter. The only thing that I can SENSE from this fight is a conservative approach from both guys. The only way I see this fight ending inside the distance is if Marlon goes too ham on Sandhagen and finishes him or gets finished himself. I'm surprised that the line favors Sandhagen to finish Moraes, but I guess it can be justified due to the fact that Moraes has 2.5 rounds of gas before he starts to really become taxed. I'd say that value is on Sandhagen and GTD, need a better price then that to back Marlon as he is essentially KO or bust here. Moraes doesn't have anything in his grappling to mix with his devastating striking, seriously possesses the most powerful kicks in the lower weights. Also, the Cejudo fight might have permanently dropped Marlons stock. Cejudo is just a different human being. We saw how Paulo got destroyed by leg kicks but Cejudo just threw all that in the back of his mind. I have about a .5 U confidence in Cory, simply because this is a 5 round BW fight, and Marlon doesn’t have wrestling. Leans for this is Cory and the over (1U on the over)

Egger vs. Tracy Cortes. Now I don't know jack shit about Egger but what I saw from Tracy's last fight is that she is good fade material in the future. She is one of the few girls who has a wrestling style, but it's not nice to look at. Sloppy takedowns, basic top control, and from what I remember her conditioning and striking were not UFC level. I'm tempted to bet a unit purely because I can kinda tell that this line is overpriced due to Tracy's good looks. .25-.5U on Egger by decision.


I love my boy Giga, but I’m not too sure about Omar morales. I remember morales looked like an amazing kickboxer.... but, Giga is literally an elite kickboxer lol. One of the few kickboxing guys in their prime to transition into MMA and although Giga has looked good, I don’t think his ceiling is too high. Yeah he can land reversals and hold his own on the ground, but he’s using techniques that won’t be high probability against top 10-15 dudes and he will have to rely on his elite kickboxing. My one remark about Giga is that he is a bit pillowfisted, accurate but pillowfisted nonetheless. I think Omar has a bit more OOMF in his punches and kicks that could either finish a gassed Giga or the body (leg ?) kicks can set up Giga to be slower in the 2nd and 3rd rounds where Giga will be gassed. Amazing matchmaking from UFC, value was on Giga when he was at +175 and there is still some value in his decision prop, the only fight I watched of morales was him vs. Benitez where I was very impressed. I just find it odd to be laying chalk when the guy he is facing is a much more experienced striker and the fight will be taking place 90% from range. I will be looking to drop 2.5 U on FGTD, don’t think Giga will wilt to Omar and Giga can only KO someone by flush liver kick.


Other fighters i liked off the bat was Barboza, Impa and possibly Rothwell.

Honestly had to write this for my own sake so I don’t go chasing losses or parlaying like a degen.
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I still took Cortez at -200, betting on who I think is the better grappler in midtier wmma has always worked well for me.
What I know from Egger is that she had her first fight at 27 and only fought complete soccer moms on littler European orgs. Her fights all played out the same way... A bodylock takedown from a bumrush and then TKO or sub against girls who clearly didn't know shit about what to do on the ground. The only thing she has is that she is big (she fought at 145 while Cortez fought at 125, fight will take place at 135) but maybe we can attribuate it to the fact that they don't cut much weight in those soccer moms orgs so she might walk around at 150 and Cortez walks around at 145, but just cuts more weight.
Cortez has some nice grappling for wmma standards and even her hands don't look bad at all from the mitt work I have seen from her, here is one of them.


Plenty enough for wmma if you ask me.
 
ill800 said:
-200 for a fighter you want to fade going against a fighter you admittedly know nothing about?

this is definitely savant level capping. Welcome back, we missed the walls of psychobabble
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I don't want to fade her, who told you that?
Besides, I saw all of Egger's fights, not my fault if she only has 6.
I'm on Cortez because I think she is better and that -200 has some value (nothing too crazy, I think she should be around -230).

I always try to be a good poster, sharing my views and accepting criticism because I think this forum is great and that we should all help each other, you, on the other hand, are just the guy who starts trash talking all the time yet complains about the qualitative decline of the weekly threads...
Last but not least, I started betting 5 months ago, I have a 13% ROI and this without some lucky parlay that went through and misrepresents my winning rate (the best odd that ever came through for me was Burns dec against Woodley at +450 or so), I think among the 20 events I bet on, 18 were profitable (most profitable night being +40%), 2 weren't (one night at -11% and the other -45%).
You can verify this if you want, I post my bets every week.
So myabe this weekend's card will suck for me, you never know, but if I think there is value on someone, I won't let someone who is just trash talking alter my judgement.
 
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DarkneT said:
If you’re betting on Tom Breese in 2020 you need to look yourself in the mirror.

Barboza is gonna destroy Makwan.. I would bet my arsehole on it
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Few years ago I would have totally agreed with you. I’m going with Amirkhani now feel like they are two fighters on opposite trajectories and where they intersect favours Amirkhani
 
ill800 said:
You said she is good fade material in your “I’m back” ramble

I rarely even post anything here. I come to these threads and can barely read through a full post. Do you guys ever wonder why most of the old members dont contribute much in these threads?

I’m calling out stupidity and your garbage analysis and reasoning for a bet on Cortez. Hopefully no one is foolish enough to tail you.

“Cortez is good fade material. I know nothing about egger. I bet egger dec. no wait guys I bet Cortez -200.”

really? Is this what this forum has come to?
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I think you meant to quote Vitor and not Goat.
 
ill800 said:
You said she is good fade material in your “I’m back” ramble

I barely even post anything here. I come to these threads and can barely read through a full post. Do you guys ever wonder why most of the old members dont post much in these threads?

I’m calling out stupidity and your garbage analysis and reasoning for a bet on Cortez. Hopefully no one is foolish enough to tail you.
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But that wasn't me who said that you asshole.
You confuse me with @VitorApologist

Regarding the posting quality, I always try my best to be respectful and to post after I taped someone, and I think, many do so. I don't see many assholes here but you.
Being fluent in 4 languages also help with taping I guess. For instance, I just learned in an interview in German from Egger that she has a judo black belt and went 1-1 against Rousey (the one time she won was in a U17 tournament, but still...). I was going to post this info in order that everyone knows that.
So maybe I will rather pass on this, since I think judo is an underrated skill, this changes my opinion on this fight.


Again, you can call me newbie as much as you want, I have a 13% ROI without any hailmary parlay that distorts my average winning rate. I generally don't brag about that because I know I'm still new to the game but you look like a guy who still sucks at betting therefore feels the need to shit on new guys trying their best. Succesful guys don't need to do that.
 
GoatArtemLobov said:
But that wasn't me who said that you asshole.
You confuse me with @VitorApologist

Regarding the posting quality, I always try my best to be respectful and to post after I taped someone, and I think, many do so. I don't see many assholes here but you.
Being fluent in 4 languages also help with taping I guess. For instance, I just learned in an interview in German from Egger that she has a judo black belt and went 1-1 against Rousey (the one time she won was in a U17 tournament, but still...). I was going to post this info in order that everyone knows that.
So maybe I will rather pass on this, since I think judo is an underrated skill, this changes my opinion on this fight.


Again, you can call me newbie as much as you want, I have a 13% ROI without any hailmary parlay that distorts my average winning rate. I generally don't brag about that because I know I'm still new to the game but you look like a guy who still sucks at betting therefore feels the need to shit on new guys trying their best. Succesful guys don't need to do that.
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Sorry, for some reason I thought you were vitorapologist. It’s still pretty early here.

you were responding to his post, close enough

for the record, I wouldn’t pay near -200 for Cortez vs most girls in her division. That’s a lot of juice for low level wmma. Cortez striking is bad and so is her cardio. Dont see any value in playing her vs another grappler
 
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I can see how Cortez would be considered good fade material later on, especially given how she looked against Melo at 135. She was definitely carrying around extra body fat and looked tired. I know she mentioned putting in a ton of road work running during the pandemic on Ashlee Evans Smith's podcast, so I think she's cleaned up the cardio portion of her game.

She can't go into this fight trying to grapple with someone who may be potentially bigger and who she may not be able to bully to the ground. Melo was an indication that may not work at this weight class. I know Cortez will be giving up a good bit in height as well. I'm on Cortez here, but cautiously. I don't think the odds should be that far apart however. She's scrappy and for all we know might be able to give Egger some issues on the feet which is where I hope she keeps it.


I like seeing Tybura in shape. What's his PTV here against Rothwell?

Also, does anyone have a read on the Nascimento/Daukaus fight? I don't want to assume this one's as easy fade on Daukaus.
 
Vitor Apologist said:
Egger vs. Tracy Cortes. Now I don't know jack shit about Egger but what I saw from Tracy's last fight is that she is good fade material in the future. She is one of the few girls who has a wrestling style, but it's not nice to look at. Sloppy takedowns, basic top control, and from what I remember her conditioning and striking were not UFC level. I'm tempted to bet a unit purely because I can kinda tell that this line is overpriced due to Tracy's good looks. .25-.5U on Egger by decision.
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Egger is European U23 Judo champion, ADCC European trials winner (not a single point was scored against her). She qualified for ADCC 2019 but lost (went to overtime) in opening round against Gabi Garcia who out-weighed her by 100+lbs. She is a natural 145er and basically two weight classes bigger than Cortez. Cortez has no business fighting at 135lbs. Egger is 1-1 against Ronda in judo. Cortez's strength's play right into Egger's game. It's not like Cortez can replicate what Alexa Conners was able to do 4 years ago because Cortez is simply stuck in the mud and has basic striking. Cortez struggled to get her wrestling going against Melo of all people, she was able to get the TD once big booty Melo gassed hard. All casuals gonna get burned hard betting Cortez. Egger has good gnp and good RNC Cortez will be finished here. Just a warning.
 
Danis_champ said:
Egger is European U23 Judo champion, ADCC European trials winner (not a single point was scored against her). She qualified for ADCC 2019 but lost (went to overtime) in opening round against Gabi Garcia who out-weighed her by 100+lbs. She is a natural 145er and basically two weight classes bigger than Cortez. Cortez has no business fighting at 135lbs. Egger is 1-1 against Ronda in judo. Cortez's strength's play right into Egger's game. It's not like Cortez can replicate what Alexa Conners was able to do 4 years ago because Cortez is simply stuck in the mud and has basic striking. Cortez struggled to get her wrestling going against Melo of all people, she was able to get the TD once big booty Melo gassed hard. All casuals gonna get burned hard betting Cortez. Egger has good gnp and good RNC Cortez will be finished here. Just a warning.
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Good info here. What happens if the fight stays standing? I watched Egger's last two fghts and there's no indication of what she can do if she doesn't get a body lock into a takedown. I think she gets Cortez down, but I'm concerned she's got bare minimum women's striking. While trying to enter range for takedowns will she be scared off if Cortez hits her enough or hard enough? I've seen no evidence that suggests anyone has posed a threat credible enough to make Egger think twice about shooting.
 
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