- Joined
- Jul 14, 2018
- Messages
- 4,810
- Reaction score
- 1,277
The vast majority of my tennis bets are live ones, since there are a range of performances from players, and it's easier when you can see how they're looking on a particular day. However, I decided to play the Australian Open futures for the women's side, putting 0.3u on Sabalenka at +1000 and 0.3u on Swiatek at +1000.
These aren't exactly dark horses; Sabalenka is riding a 15-match winning streak, has won 3 tournaments, all hard courts, in a row, and is going to be 7th in the rankings after the Dubai results are counted. Swiatek has won the last Grand Slam tournament, the French Open, in dominant fashion and is only 19 years old.
I probably wouldn't be brave enough to play either at +500 or so, either, for the record, although there might still be value on one or both at those prices. For fun, let's look at some of the other future picks one can make;
Osaka +700
The biggest favorite, and understandably so. However, she has been unfocused and underperforming since backstabbing her then coach Sascha Bajin, who got her from 60-something in the world to #1 and 2 Grand Slams in a row in just a year. Since then, she has often performed more like a player circa 20th in the world rather than the #1 and didn't win a Grand Slam until the weak and underattended US Open last year.
At her best, she probably deserves to be the favorite, although I can still see huge hitters like Sabalenka and Swiatek defeating her. However, there is a good chance she will not be playing her best.
Serena Williams +800
HAHA. This is a name recognition pick and nothing more. She doesn't even have the fitness level to win 7 straight matches at a major, let alone her other flaws nowadays. Can't wait to fade the hell out of her when she plays a good opponent at the Australian, either.
Sofia Kenin +1000
Big fan of Kenin. In a sea of female players who are mentally weak and start screaming and getting hysterical on the court, utterly self-destructing, she is incredibly tough and fearless, playing her very best on the most crucial points and rising to the occasion at the biggest events. That makes her an attractive pre and live-bet, and she has made me a decent amount of money. Still, she is lacking a little strength and endurance, and it's not difficult to see a big hitter taking her out at some point.
Also, she is hard-countered by both Sabalenka and Swiatek, the two women I'm picking.
Bianca Andreescu +1200
My very first tennis bet was betting Andreescu at something like +260 to beat Serena Williams at the US Open, which she did, going on to win the tournament. At her best, she is excellent, and might be worth this price and even lower. Trouble is, she has been injured a long time and hasn't played since shortly after that US Open triumph in 2019.
What kind of shape and state is she in? It would be absolutely shocking if it were anything close to enough to win a slam.
Victoria Azarenka +1400
A great player who is still terrific on certain matches. However, her consistency isn't quite there anymore. Hard to see her winning 7 matches in a row and not flagging against some of the more dangerous opponents later in the tournament.
Karolina Pliskova +1600
HAHA. This goddamn bum lost me 2u at evens after losing the first set to No. 300 qualifier Anastasia Gasanova. She moves like a pregnant elephant on ice and her consistency comes and goes. Yes, she hits hard, but there is a reason she has never come close to winning a slam and never will. This is an equally bad bet as Serena.
Cori Gauff +2000
And this one might be as bad as those two! Another pure name recongition pick. One can reasonably debate her future potential, but right now, she is ranked 48th in the world and plays like it. Her serve was an absolute disaster last year and her playing style of getting tons of balls back and not going for much is predicated on trying to get her chances of beating a top 20 opponent to 50/50.
How in the world is she supposed to win a Grand Slam?
Dayana Yastremska +3300
A bold pick considering she is presently banned from tennis for steroid usage.
For reference, here is the totally natty Maria Sakkari (availabe at +5000!);
https://www.tennisworldusa.org/imge/81983/maria-sakkari-withdraws-from-seoul-open.jpg
Now here is the dirty steroid cheat Yastremska;
https://www.tennisnet.com/fileadmin/_processed_/1/a/csm_yastremska_adriatour_f69f86287f.jpg
Elise Mertens +4000
A straight-up better pick than many of the ones ahead of her, at least Yastremska and Gauff, and at much higher numbers. She needs a lot of things to go right for her to win, especially since she has bad match-ups against a number of the world elite (Azarenka crushes her again and again), but she has the consistency and durability to reliably beat the weaker players and get deep in a tournament. If you want to bet on more of a long shot, this might be it.
These aren't exactly dark horses; Sabalenka is riding a 15-match winning streak, has won 3 tournaments, all hard courts, in a row, and is going to be 7th in the rankings after the Dubai results are counted. Swiatek has won the last Grand Slam tournament, the French Open, in dominant fashion and is only 19 years old.
I probably wouldn't be brave enough to play either at +500 or so, either, for the record, although there might still be value on one or both at those prices. For fun, let's look at some of the other future picks one can make;
Osaka +700
The biggest favorite, and understandably so. However, she has been unfocused and underperforming since backstabbing her then coach Sascha Bajin, who got her from 60-something in the world to #1 and 2 Grand Slams in a row in just a year. Since then, she has often performed more like a player circa 20th in the world rather than the #1 and didn't win a Grand Slam until the weak and underattended US Open last year.
At her best, she probably deserves to be the favorite, although I can still see huge hitters like Sabalenka and Swiatek defeating her. However, there is a good chance she will not be playing her best.
Serena Williams +800
HAHA. This is a name recognition pick and nothing more. She doesn't even have the fitness level to win 7 straight matches at a major, let alone her other flaws nowadays. Can't wait to fade the hell out of her when she plays a good opponent at the Australian, either.
Sofia Kenin +1000
Big fan of Kenin. In a sea of female players who are mentally weak and start screaming and getting hysterical on the court, utterly self-destructing, she is incredibly tough and fearless, playing her very best on the most crucial points and rising to the occasion at the biggest events. That makes her an attractive pre and live-bet, and she has made me a decent amount of money. Still, she is lacking a little strength and endurance, and it's not difficult to see a big hitter taking her out at some point.
Also, she is hard-countered by both Sabalenka and Swiatek, the two women I'm picking.
Bianca Andreescu +1200
My very first tennis bet was betting Andreescu at something like +260 to beat Serena Williams at the US Open, which she did, going on to win the tournament. At her best, she is excellent, and might be worth this price and even lower. Trouble is, she has been injured a long time and hasn't played since shortly after that US Open triumph in 2019.
What kind of shape and state is she in? It would be absolutely shocking if it were anything close to enough to win a slam.
Victoria Azarenka +1400
A great player who is still terrific on certain matches. However, her consistency isn't quite there anymore. Hard to see her winning 7 matches in a row and not flagging against some of the more dangerous opponents later in the tournament.
Karolina Pliskova +1600
HAHA. This goddamn bum lost me 2u at evens after losing the first set to No. 300 qualifier Anastasia Gasanova. She moves like a pregnant elephant on ice and her consistency comes and goes. Yes, she hits hard, but there is a reason she has never come close to winning a slam and never will. This is an equally bad bet as Serena.
Cori Gauff +2000
And this one might be as bad as those two! Another pure name recongition pick. One can reasonably debate her future potential, but right now, she is ranked 48th in the world and plays like it. Her serve was an absolute disaster last year and her playing style of getting tons of balls back and not going for much is predicated on trying to get her chances of beating a top 20 opponent to 50/50.
How in the world is she supposed to win a Grand Slam?
Dayana Yastremska +3300
A bold pick considering she is presently banned from tennis for steroid usage.
For reference, here is the totally natty Maria Sakkari (availabe at +5000!);
https://www.tennisworldusa.org/imge/81983/maria-sakkari-withdraws-from-seoul-open.jpg
Now here is the dirty steroid cheat Yastremska;
https://www.tennisnet.com/fileadmin/_processed_/1/a/csm_yastremska_adriatour_f69f86287f.jpg
Elise Mertens +4000
A straight-up better pick than many of the ones ahead of her, at least Yastremska and Gauff, and at much higher numbers. She needs a lot of things to go right for her to win, especially since she has bad match-ups against a number of the world elite (Azarenka crushes her again and again), but she has the consistency and durability to reliably beat the weaker players and get deep in a tournament. If you want to bet on more of a long shot, this might be it.
