UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus

[Kyle Stephens]

I'm wondering if age has deteriorated his [Wonderboy] tdd a bit.

No, he was never a solid TD defender. (At least I don't think he's ever had the chance to prove it.) In his career so far he's somehow managed to avoid every good wrestler/grappler who's in his prime. Look up his record: he is matched up with either strikers, or people who's too shot, or are giving up too big of an athletic edge to be able to do anything. I do think Thompson wins this one, but I'm not counting Belal out at all. He is a vet, a hard worker and a smart fighter. Will come prepared and give his best to win. And he's training partner with Pettis, who KO'ed Thompson. I wouldn't feel confident paying juice for Thompson in that particular fight, that's all I wanna say.

I can see that. He's kind of a jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none type fighter. He's decent at everything but doesn't excel at anything.

Belal excel at giving everything he got and making the most of what he has as a talent. And that's why I love him.

...I don't think of Cub as someone who gasses and he's experienced enough to be able to manage the pace of a fight and not go nuts trying to finish Elkins. I like Cub to piece him up and avoid takedowns on his way to a decision. Last time Elkins beat a decent fighter was probably 3 or 4 years ago.

Paying minus money for 2021 Cubby ain't too smart. He's the type of fighter you want to bet as a dog. Elkins has burned too many tickets at this point, you should know better than that.

Yeah at -140 Daukaus is one of the best bets on the card imo. Daukaus is hungry and this fight will be the greatest opportunity of his career so far. On the other hand, Lewis does not have a fighter mentality, he is a meme fighter and he fully embraces it with zero pretense. He will quit if Daukaus brings the fight to him 100%, it was a very good possibility before getting his ass whooped by Gane in his hometown 4 months ago, but now it is a certain thing. Daukaus not only has a great mental edge, he has superior, faster hands and this fight will take place entirely on the feet. Of course Lewis has a chance of meme KO but at -140 odds I take that bet all day.

How a -140 bet is the best on the card? Daukaus better be a sure thing then.

Daukaus has faster hands and maybe better cardio than Lewis (we've never seen him past the 2nd in the UFC, hence the "maybe") . Derrick has athleticism, power, and most importantly - vast UFC experience. He knows his shit. Moreover, what troubles Derrick are people who can keep him at the edge of their range. Be at kickung or at punching range. Consntantly occupying his defence with something and being able to dodge or smother his attacks if need be. Chris ain't that dude, from what I've seen on tape. He's a blitzing fighter with fast combos, or a darting 2. He can knock Lewis out for sure. Lewis' defense isn't good. But this is not the mold, man. It's not what typically gets Lewis... What Daukaus can do can be so easily turned against him... and if there's one thing Lewis can do is make you pay for dumb shit. And if Lewis can't get him out of there, I think it'll be a close fight, cause Daukaus isn't exactly a good round winner. He's a KO artist. He's volume isn't there TBH. We've seen Derrick somehow convicing judges to give him the edge in close fights. Also he's seen a 3rd and a 4th round in the UFC. Daukaus hasn't, yet. I think Lewis wins this one, I don't care that he's a meme fighter and that he doesn't have a fighter's mentality. He's just big, powerful HW, who's also a savvy vet. Enough for me.

 

[mkess101]

No, he was never a solid TD defender. (At least I don't think he's ever had the chance to prove it.) In his career so far he's somehow managed to avoid every good wrestler/grappler who's in his prime. Look up his record: he is matched up with either strikers, or people who's too shot, or are giving up too big of an athletic edge to be able to do anything. I do think Thompson wins this one, but I'm not counting Belal out at all. He is a vet, a hard worker and a smart fighter. Will come prepared and give his best to win. And he's training partner with Pettis, who KO'ed Thompson. I wouldn't feel confident paying juice for Thompson in that particular fight, that's all I wanna say.
Belal excel at giving everything he got and making the most of what he has as a talent. And that's why I love him.

Paying minus money for 2021 Cubby ain't too smart. He's the type of fighter you want to bet as a dog. Elkins has burned too many tickets at this point, you should know better than that.
How a -140 bet is the best on the card? Daukaus better be a sure thing then.

Daukaus has faster hands and maybe better cardio than Lewis (we've never seen him past the 2nd in the UFC, hence the "maybe") . Derrick has athleticism, power, and most importantly - vast UFC experience. He knows his shit. Moreover, what troubles Derrick are people who can keep him at the edge of their range. Be at kickung or at punching range. Consntantly occupying his defence with something and being able to dodge or smother his attacks if need be. Chris ain't that dude, from what I've seen on tape. He's a blitzing fighter with fast combos, or a darting 2. He can knock Lewis out for sure. Lewis' defense isn't good. But this is not the mold, man. It's not what typically gets Lewis... What Daukaus can do can be so easily turned against him... and if there's one thing Lewis can do is make you pay for dumb shit. And if Lewis can't get him out of there, I think it'll be a close fight, cause Daukaus isn't exactly a good round winner. He's a KO artist. He's volume isn't there TBH. We've seen Derrick somehow convicing judges to give him the edge in close fights. Also he's seen a 3rd and a 4th round in the UFC. Daukaus hasn't, yet. I think Lewis wins this one, I don't care that he's a meme fighter and that he doesn't have a fighter's mentality. He's just big, powerful HW, who's also a savvy vet. Enough for me.

There are a lot of guys who give all they have. Not a knock on Belal, he's a good fighter. I just think that unless he can put WB on his back (and keep him there) he's in trouble. Luque looked befuddled by WB standing, think Belal will too.

 

[mkess101]

Also, at this point Lewis has a LOT of quit in him. He used to be a guy who could withstand a ton of damage and come back to win. Now (and he's nearing the end and has made a lot of $ so I don't really blame him) he's looking for a way out as soon as he's hurt even a little.

 

[guesswhoseback]

No, he was never a solid TD defender. (At least I don't think he's ever had the chance to prove it.) In his career so far he's somehow managed to avoid every good wrestler/grappler who's in his prime. Look up his record: he is matched up with either strikers, or people who's too shot, or are giving up too big of an athletic edge to be able to do anything. I do think Thompson wins this one, but I'm not counting Belal out at all. He is a vet, a hard worker and a smart fighter. Will come prepared and give his best to win. And he's training partner with Pettis, who KO'ed Thompson. I wouldn't feel confident paying juice for Thompson in that particular fight, that's all I wanna say.
Belal excel at giving everything he got and making the most of what he has as a talent. And that's why I love him.

Paying minus money for 2021 Cubby ain't too smart. He's the type of fighter you want to bet as a dog. Elkins has burned too many tickets at this point, you should know better than that.
How a -140 bet is the best on the card? Daukaus better be a sure thing then.

Daukaus has faster hands and maybe better cardio than Lewis (we've never seen him past the 2nd in the UFC, hence the "maybe") . Derrick has athleticism, power, and most importantly - vast UFC experience. He knows his shit. Moreover, what troubles Derrick are people who can keep him at the edge of their range. Be at kickung or at punching range. Consntantly occupying his defence with something and being able to dodge or smother his attacks if need be. Chris ain't that dude, from what I've seen on tape. He's a blitzing fighter with fast combos, or a darting 2. He can knock Lewis out for sure. Lewis' defense isn't good. But this is not the mold, man. It's not what typically gets Lewis... What Daukaus can do can be so easily turned against him... and if there's one thing Lewis can do is make you pay for dumb shit. And if Lewis can't get him out of there, I think it'll be a close fight, cause Daukaus isn't exactly a good round winner. He's a KO artist. He's volume isn't there TBH. We've seen Derrick somehow convicing judges to give him the edge in close fights. Also he's seen a 3rd and a 4th round in the UFC. Daukaus hasn't, yet. I think Lewis wins this one, I don't care that he's a meme fighter and that he doesn't have a fighter's mentality. He's just big, powerful HW, who's also a savvy vet. Enough for me.

Im sure he meant daukus-140 as in the best bet for your value lol no one bets -500 fighters straight unless you have tons of money to bet on it or a complete idiot

 

[SherdogWasNeverMyFriend]

Expecting CDF to gas against a backfoot boxer because he did sprinting non-stop with Gillespie is nuts. His cardio is great.

I just saw this. So Gamrot is a backfoot boxer now? Okay lol. Good luck.

 

[Jonathan Utah]

Also, at this point Lewis has a LOT of quit in him. He used to be a guy who could withstand a ton of damage and come back to win. Now (and he's nearing the end and has made a lot of $ so I don't really blame him) he's looking for a way out as soon as he's hurt even a little.

I have a feeling that the Gane fight took so much out of him.

 

[TrueAscension]

You guys are (respectfully) nuts for liking Daukus in this spot. One shot and it’s completely over. Lewis has fought such a higher level of competition it’s not even funny.

 

[Danis_champ]

You guys are (respectfully) nuts for liking Daukus in this spot. One shot and it’s completely over. Lewis has fought such a higher level of competition it’s not even funny.

pls put your house and car on Lewis so I could bet opposite side. Please, I am begging you.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

pls put your house and car on Lewis so I could bet opposite side. Please, I am begging you.

Would love to see one of your bet slips.

 

[Thesnake101]

Daukaus is just going to do what Mitrione did and melt BB with teh quickness. No overthinking it.

But seriously, I do think Chris' hand speed will make things difficult for Derrick. He's no spring chicken either, so Daukaus' senior citizen beating ways should continue, though I can see why BB at underdog money would a tempting bet. He's just looked too vulnerable on the feet as of late for me to trust him here.

I mean, Derrick's whole thing is to tank damage until he charges his energy bar enough for an ultimate, and at one point he's just going to misfire and turtle up. I think this is that fight.

 

[mkess101]

You guys are (respectfully) nuts for liking Daukus in this spot. One shot and it’s completely over. Lewis has fought such a higher level of competition it’s not even funny.

At HW that's almost everyone though. Of course Lewis could put Daukus away, no doubt. But the flipside is that if Daukus lands anything clean, at this point Lewis seems to just turtle up and wait for the end. And given the speed advantage, I think it's more often that Daukus lands the big shot first.

Lewis has obviously fought way better competition. No question. But he's also aged a ton over the years with all the damage he's absorbed in those fights. And I'm even talking about fights he WON. Look at the Volkov fight for example. A win on Derrick's resume', and a good one. But also a fight where he absorbed a shit ton of damage. That stuff adds up, and it seemed to show in the Gane fight in that Lewis just shelled up and waited for the end in rd 3.

I wouldn't make any sort of a big play on Daukus having to pay juice. I favor him maybe a LITTLE more than the line does. I cap him maybe in that -160 to -175 area. So at -140, not exactly massive value imo. But I do expect him to win, even if I also think Lewis is a very live dog.

 

[TrueAscension]

At HW that's almost everyone though. Of course Lewis could put Daukus away, no doubt. But the flipside is that if Daukus lands anything clean, at this point Lewis seems to just turtle up and wait for the end. And given the speed advantage, I think it's more often that Daukus lands the big shot first.

Lewis has obviously fought way better competition. No question. But he's also aged a ton over the years with all the damage he's absorbed in those fights. And I'm even talking about fights he WON. Look at the Volkov fight for example. A win on Derrick's resume', and a good one. But also a fight where he absorbed a shit ton of damage. That stuff adds up, and it seemed to show in the Gane fight in that Lewis just shelled up and waited for the end in rd 3.

I wouldn't make any sort of a big play on Daukus having to pay juice. I favor him maybe a LITTLE more than the line does. I cap him maybe in that -160 to -175 area. So at -140, not exactly massive value imo. But I do expect him to win, even if I also think Lewis is a very live dog.

All good points but who has Daukus beaten that gives you any confidence he can hurt Lewis?

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Wish I got the opening line on Tafa/Hunsucker u1.5 at -115, but I will still gladly play it at -150. Should be at the very least -200. Hunsucker never even been out of the 1st round besides 1 ammy fight that went 2 seconds over at 2:32 of the second round. Not even sure if that was a 5 minute per round fight, though. Could've been 3 minute rounds. All his pro fights haven't even gone past 4 minutes

Also like Daukaus -140 and Parisian +170

 

[mkess101]

All good points but who has Daukus beaten that gives you any confidence he can hurt Lewis?

It's not so much "who he's beaten" as it is the eye test. I watch him (even against lesser competition) and just LOOKS way faster than Lewis does at this point. At HW I worry less about "does this guy have real power" because for the most part at that size they all do. When HW's land clean, for the most part they are hurting whoever they hit. They aren't as slick or skilled as smaller guys, but they all pack a punch.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Lines I like havent placed any bets yet

Sayles/Levitt-UN 2.5-140
Tafa/Hunsucker-UN 1.5-150
Meerschardt/Stofulz-UN 1.5+120
Ferreria/Gamrot-OV 2.5-155
Assucnao/Simon-OV 2.5-185
Lewis/Daukus-UN 2.5-150
Mayes-190
Gatto+185

 

[TrueAscension]

It's not so much "who he's beaten" as it is the eye test. I watch him (even against lesser competition) and just LOOKS way faster than Lewis does at this point. At HW I worry less about "does this guy have real power" because for the most part at that size they all do. When HW's land clean, for the most part they are hurting whoever they hit. They aren't as slick or skilled as smaller guys, but they all pack a punch.

Ya I’m with you. Lewis is pretty goddamn fast himself bro. The idea he shells up I think has more to do with who he has fought and much less to do with some sort of flaw in his game. I think we see Daukus still in orbit rounding the earth this time next week

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Wish I got the opening line on Tafa/Hunsucker u1.5 at -115, but I will still gladly play it at -150. Should be at the very least -200. Hunsucker never even been out of the 1st round besides 1 ammy fight that went 2 seconds over at 2:32 of the second round. Not even sure if that was a 5 minute per round fight, though. Could've been 3 minute rounds. All his pro fights haven't even gone past 4 minutes

Also like Daukaus -140 and Parisian +170

Beast and daukaus under 2.5 good as well

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Ya I’m with you. Lewis is pretty goddamn fast himself bro. The idea he shells up I think has more to do with who he has fought and much less to do with some sort of flaw in his game. I think we see Daukus still in orbit rounding the earth this time next week

Daukaus is a blown up light heavy whos been fighting old, slow guys that he has a massive hand speed advantage against.

beast has him beat in athleticism, explosiveness, punching power, strength, experience and to top it off, he may have 50lbs on him come fight night. He might even have better cardio.

 

[BigSteve]

lot of discussion and disagreement, I love it. Won't start replying to everyone but will be doing 2c soon.

 

[ballsackarino]

not huge but I see zero chance Daukus wins this fight if it stays standing.

zero chance? lol

Lewis got tkoed by the ghost of JDS. Lewis pretty much only beats grapplers lately. Daukaus wants to stay standing and not waste his energy trying to keep Derrick Lewis down.