2c rest of the card:
Mayes/Parisian: What a shit show of a fight. Can't lay that price on Mayes, but i think Parisian is the shittest HW in the UFC and should be 0-2. He is so hittable, look at his face after round 1 against Roque of all people. He gasses ASAP, but pushes through so I will give him that. Mayes is a flake and also has shit cardio. He at least showed some IQ in sticking and moving against Roque but seemed to slow down again in the third. Big pass here.
Rocky/Macy: Shame about this being at FW, I thought Rocky was going to break Macy over 3. Macy is crap, she constantly engages in the clinch but sucks at wrestling. She has zero athletism as well as IQ and takedown defense. She has some good knees in the clinch that she spams. She was more patient in her last fight against almost retired Renau, and almost lost the fight. It was 1-1 going into the third and she gave up a takedown in the beginning. She reminds me of Randy Costa, if she can't get a meme finish the DEC is a sweat. Rocky is durable, has great cardio, pushes the pace, and will actively grapple. She has some pop on her punches too, stole rounds against Pennie with clean shots and aggression. Macy could look much better at FW, and her cardio problems might be fixed. The uncertainty has made me go from 2u on Rocky to nothing pre-bet. Macy can crack and she comes out strong early so potential live bet for Rocky.
Jourdain/Ewell: No interest in this fight. I don't know why Jourdan keeps getting favorable odds, he is clearly overrated. Ewell is a flake but is moving up now, maybe it fixes his cardio and durability problems. Hate Jourdain's striking, he shells up and gets backed up easily. He will randomly explode with some strikes and steal rounds or get a KO. 3 round striking battle, high variance, line is probably wide, but I can't get a read on these kinds of fights so passing.
Tafa/Hunsucker: What to say here. Hunsucker actually has some speed and decent power in his hands. He can also get subs over bums on the regionals. Tafa is nothing special, he is a decent striker when he comes out patient, but he sees red every now and then. The unders are the only way I would tackle this fight. How does it lose, maybe if Hunsucker changes up his style and decides to pace himself, and Tafa is scared of losing so he decides to counter. I stalked Hunsucker, and all of his posts have #killorbekilled under them so I don't think he is changing up his style. I will play the U1.5, maybe max bet U2.5 if im feeling frisky.
Barcelos/Henry: Henry is a good fighter, think he should have been in the UFC earlier. Tough task here. One big hole Henry has is how easily he gets taken down. He also gives up his back a lot. Im surprised he doesn't have more losses due to that, in his last loss the Russian dude just took him down once in each round. Barcelos is a beast everywhere, the only knock on him is he can slow down a bit, and doesn't always take the easiest route to a win. Even if he stands, Henry is pretty hittable, and the calf kick will be there all fight. Only way I see Henry winning is by Home Simpsoning Barcelos late, the same way he beat Phillips on regionals. The over 1.5 is set at 1.72 which is interesting considering Henry has never been finished.
BB/Daukaus: Hmmm was hoping I would have more conviction on Daukaus after tape. I still got him KO/DEC at 2.10 which is insane compared to his ML. His one sub win is tap due to strikes and regardless don't think he is going to try grapple Lewis. KO is the easy hedge obvs. The speed difference is going to be massive here, but on the other side Lewis will have at least 30 pounds on Chris in weight. I can see a scenario where Lewis takes a gassed Daukas down later and pounds him out. He took Ivanov and Olenyk down and attempted it against Gane. The last loss on regionals against Anyanwu is a bit concerning, but that was a Chris with a full-time job and 20 pounds heavier. If Lewis does win its probably due to Daukaus unloading and gassing. Chris went into round 2 against Shamil after almost finishing him and he seemed fine cardio-wise. I see people shitting on him due to that performance. Shamil is a very technical striker himself, he presents a lot more problems in the standup than big bursts of explosion. He's light on his feet, has good distance management and is great at countering. Lewis will do the same shit he always does, back up until it's time to run in with some hooks. If he tries to counter Chris as he comes in, Chris is getting to him first 9/10 times. His hooks are very clean, I still cant decide if he has power if it's the speed and precision that puts everyone down. There wasn't much happening in the Shamil fight, but both the shots that dropped him were so clean. I guess its a pretty volatile fight, I am banking on Daukas being light on his feet and picking his shots. I don't know Is lewis can take clean shots from Daukas, he was even making Blaydes look like a K1 champion in the first. GG everyone, hope we end the year in style.
