UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus

[mkess101]

Yeah, but it was Gillepsie who looked completely gassed between rounds, and CDF won round 3 against Dariush who also pressured him. I dont know what happened there, but it's a red flag imo.

Gregor is a different kind of animal. Dude can look tired but still have a ton left in the tank. He puts in more roadwork than anyone in the sport maybe. His cardio is next level.

 

[Oblivian]

I think people are grossly underestimating the top pressure of Gregor.

 

[mkess101]

I think people are grossly underestimating the top pressure of Gregor.

Some of that for sure, and also just his grit and ability to an exhausting pace for a long time. CDF really did outgrapple Gregor for a round. But then he faded and Gregor doesn't.

 

[Oblivian]

Some of that for sure, and also just his grit and ability to an exhausting pace for a long time. CDF really did outgrapple Gregor for a round. But then he faded and Gregor doesn't.

To put it in nerd terms, I think Gregor had CDF in a check mate position based on where his energy level was. I don't think this is a similar matchup at all either.

 

[Main_Card_MMA]

BB/Daukus is the kind of fight that makes for awesome debate but imo just doesn't present a ton of value either way. I favor Daukus, think the line is at least close to being where it should, but no way in hell would make any sort of sizeable play on it. Lewis could knock him into the third row and I wouldn't be surprised at all.

Both TKO lines are at plus money though. I really doubt this goes the distance as you've said before (and I agree with) that Lewis isn't motivated enough for a 5 rounder and Daukaus likely doesn't have the cardio. Daukaus isn't gonna grapple here, not against one arm get up Lewis. Might be a boring staring contest that turns into a close split so not a big play, but worth a little something.

 

[The Disasters]

I just finished my analysis and my first round of bets. A few thoughts that I'm betting below.

Derrick Lewis: I think this line is based off how bad Gane made him look, but that doesn't give Gane the credit he deserves. I think Gane is a special talent and as much as I'm a fan of Daukaus and his style, I think Lewis is simply the stronger, more powerful fighter. I added some 'by tko' as well.

Diego Ferreira: If this fight was Gillespie vs. Gamrot, Gillespie would be a big chalk, and I think this line is based more on how bad he gassed than anything else. Gassing after that first round(which he won), which was one of the most tiring first rounds I've ever seen, against an A-level athlete like Gillespie, doesn't deserve as much disrespect as the +150 line show. If it happens again then I'm a believer, but I think that less on him and more on Gillespie.

Darren Elkins: Big fan of both these guys, but I think Cub is aging master/sooner than Elkins. I almost didn't bet but +165 is ridiculous on a guy with that kind of pressure wrestling against a guy who may/may not be falling off the age cliff. Obviously Giga hits really hard, especially his kicks, but I really didn't like how Cub looked in that fight. I won't mind losing this one but I wish they'd both retire.

Victor Henry: This is more of a fade on Barcelos due to inactivity and lack of killer instinct than anything else. Losing to Valiev is no shame, especially that close, but I didn't like his lack of aggression in that or the Taha fight. I wonder if the cancellations and layoffs have degraded him as a fighter. Henry is dangerous enough to cause some issues, and while Barcelos should be chalk, that price basically discounts Rizin and Pancrase as being much worse than they are.

Melissa Gatto, and by sub: I have nothing positive to say about Eubanks other than that she's a pretty good wrestler. She's not suddenly some power puncher off the tko of a glorified bar fighter. This'll go to the ground and Gatto has dangerous subs. I think she'll get one eventually.

Meerschaert by sub: +175 is stupid for someone with that good of submissions, against a guy who can only win via submission. I feel like someone in the UFC hates Stoltzfus because this is a terrible matchup for him.

 

[mkess101]

To put it in nerd terms, I think Gregor had CDF in a check mate position based on where his energy level was. I don't think this is a similar matchup at all either.

Agree 100%. CDF has a shit ton of fights. Against 99.99% of guys he'd face, they'd be every bit as exhausted as he was after the pace of hat first round. He just happened to be facing that rarest of guys who can go through that and then find even more in the tank.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I just finished my analysis and my first round of bets. A few thoughts that I'm betting below.

Derrick Lewis: I think this line is based off how bad Gane made him look, but that doesn't give Gane the credit he deserves. I think Gane is a special talent and as much as I'm a fan of Daukaus and his style, I think Lewis is simply the stronger, more powerful fighter. I added some 'by tko' as well.

Diego Ferreira: If this fight was Gillespie vs. Gamrot, Gillespie would be a big chalk, and I think this line is based more on how bad he gassed than anything else. Gassing after that first round(which he won), which was one of the most tiring first rounds I've ever seen, against an A-level athlete like Gillespie, doesn't deserve as much disrespect as the +150 line show. If it happens again then I'm a believer, but I think that less on him and more on Gillespie.

Darren Elkins: Big fan of both these guys, but I think Cub is aging master/sooner than Elkins. I almost didn't bet but +165 is ridiculous on a guy with that kind of pressure wrestling against a guy who may/may not be falling off the age cliff. Obviously Giga hits really hard, especially his kicks, but I really didn't like how Cub looked in that fight. I won't mind losing this one but I wish they'd both retire.

Victor Henry: This is more of a fade on Barcelos due to inactivity and lack of killer instinct than anything else. Losing to Valiev is no shame, especially that close, but I didn't like his lack of aggression in that or the Taha fight. I wonder if the cancellations and layoffs have degraded him as a fighter. Henry is dangerous enough to cause some issues, and while Barcelos should be chalk, that price basically discounts Rizin and Pancrase as being much worse than they are.

Melissa Gatto, and by sub: I have nothing positive to say about Eubanks other than that she's a pretty good wrestler. She's not suddenly some power puncher off the tko of a glorified bar fighter. This'll go to the ground and Gatto has dangerous subs. I think she'll get one eventually.

Meerschaert by sub: +175 is stupid for someone with that good of submissions, against a guy who can only win via submission. I feel like someone in the UFC hates Stoltzfus because this is a terrible matchup for him.

Meerschart is not the most consistent fighter, i remember him getting hit several times hard by Deron Winn.

 

[The Disasters]

Meerschart is not the most consistent fighter, i remember him getting hit several times hard by Deron Winn.

No doubt, I just don't think Stoltzfus is the guy to do it, and I certainly don't think he has the style to do it.

 

[Stat_Collector]

No doubt, I just don't think Stoltzfus is the guy to do it, and I certainly don't think he has the style to do it.

i dont agree, Gerald is one of those fighters who needs a finish to win a fight, he's never won a decision(in ufc) , he either finishes or gets finished. If Stoltz just survives, he walks away with the W.

 

[The Disasters]

i dont agree, Gerald is one of those fighters who needs a finish to win a fight, he's never won a decision(in ufc) , he either finishes or gets finished. If Stoltz just survives, he walks away with the W.

That's why they give us lines to bet! I see Stoltzfus by decision around +450 so you're getting a better price on your opinion than I am on mine and we'll see on Saturday. Even Stoltzfus straight up pays more than Meerschaert by sub, so if you're right, you'll get paid.

 

[Broe.]

i dont agree, Gerald is one of those fighters who needs a finish to win a fight, he's never won a decision(in ufc) , he either finishes or gets finished. If Stoltz just survives, he walks away with the W.

He should have gotten the nod vs Erik anders. He also lost against Holland in a highly questionable decision.

 

[Card]

Harry Hunsucker (238.5) vs. Justin Tafa (267)**
Sijara Eubanks (127.5)* vs. Melissa Gatto (125)
Macy Chiasson (148.5)*** vs. Raquel Pennington (145)

* Missed women’s flyweight limit by 1.5 pounds
** Missed heavyweight limit by 1 pounds
*** Missed women’s featherweight limit by 2.5 pounds

 

[2020Tracked]

Tafa the first UFC heavy weight ever to miss weight, such an achievement

 

[Post 2 Decision]

Is anyone surprised that Sijara missed weight for 125, again?

LOL Chiasson missed too at 145 after this was scheduled for 135. Hope she gets humiliated.

 

[Post 2 Decision]

Harry Hunsucker (238.5) vs. Justin Tafa (267)**
Sijara Eubanks (127.5)* vs. Melissa Gatto (125)
Macy Chiasson (148.5)*** vs. Raquel Pennington (145)

* Missed women’s flyweight limit by 1.5 pounds
** Missed heavyweight limit by 1 pounds
*** Missed women’s featherweight limit by 2.5 pounds

Ewell listed at 5'11, Jourdain 5'9... What a joke lol

 

[The Disasters]

I try to avoid too much risk on WMMA but Pennington is as much of a lock as you can get. A mentally weak and physically depleted opponent, who isn't dangerous in the slightest, is perfect for her style.

 

[2020Tracked]

Why would Macy be physically detected? Maybe she didn't even try to make weight

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I try to avoid too much risk on WMMA but Pennington is as much of a lock as you can get. A mentally weak and physically depleted opponent, who isn't dangerous in the slightest, is perfect for her style.

Lol

 

[Dingaling]

Ewell listed at 5'11, Jourdain 5'9... What a joke lol

I train with Dre and I am 6'. I'd say he is about 5'10 max.