UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus

[BigDramaShow26]

What is magny good at ? Honestly ?

just wrapping guys up And leaning on them or grinding on them on the ground

his striking stinks

Max ain’t great , but he should be the more dangerous striker …. And he has a wrestling background - shoukd be able to keep it standing

Max is not better than Neal and Magny grinded out a decision win like he often does. This is a fight Magny wins.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Do you guys agree that Askar is a 90% Lean? Does Kara have a chance here?

 

[GoldenWolf87]

I feel like this is a bad event for betting ….

I don’t like Griffen - but think he’s a live dog - magny stinks imo griffin can outstrike and out wrestle him …

I like blaydes but he’s -375 ….. no good value unless parlaying him

grassi should win - Jojo terrible

big Askarov fan but I don’t like him at -275 against a good Kai Kara France … askarov gasses and Kai can crack …. Not worth the play at -275 imo

***next ppv ufc is the one to go big on !!…. Every main card fight is a lock ….. Ian Garry , Aldana , Imavov , Yan and volkanvski all win easy !!!! Gunna drop a G on that card for sure !

For betting i do think this is likely a favorite fight card for most favorite fighters to win for this week, no offense but i dont think most of the underdogs would win this week.

 

[stingren]

Do you guys agree that Askar is a 90% Lean? Does Kara have a chance here?

Imo Kai Kara too small with overrated power because of don’t blink nickname

Askar can beat him on the feet and on the ground

 

[2020Tracked]

What was Askar's lay off for, what was the injury?

 

[Stat_Collector]

Imo Kai Kara too small with overrated power because of don’t blink nickname

Askar can beat him on the feet and on the ground

yeah i think his chin can take his best shots too. i hope he plays to his strength and ragdolls him and gets the sub.

 

[Shelter]

Magny + Grasso ML parlay gives me +130, I'm going with that as my main bet.

I think Magny controls Griffin and will be able to take him down and cruise to a decision. Griffin's not some young up and comer, he's 36 and beating limited or shot fighters. Magny been in there with and survived better. Speaking of shot, Calderwood doesn't seem to have much left in the tank. She got absolutely battered by Santos, and she doesn't have the wrestling to do to Grasso what Esparza and Suarez did.

Going to do a smaller three-prop parlay bet with individual bets on each one. If one hits, I cover the whole bet.

Grasso by KO/SUB (+600)
Souza by D (+200)
Rosa by KO/SUB (+250)
Total parlay odds +7250

Least confident in the Rosa bet, I bet on her to finish against Correia and lost there which was rough. McMann could definitely wrestle Rosa to a decision, but she has a way of losing fights and she's getting up there at 41. Grasso isn't a finisher, but neither was Santos (at least in the UFC) before she was rocking Calderwood.

Edit: thinking on it, I'm subbing in Guttierez by UD (+240) over the Rosa to finish bet

 

[Stat_Collector]

• 100$ for 36k
• Bruno Souza - By Points (+150)Bruno Souza vs Luis Saldana

• goes distance No (+210)Joanne Calderwood vs Alexa Grasso

• Curtis Blaydes - By Points (+300)Curtis Blaydes vs Christopher Daukaus

• GTD No (+150)Askar Askarov vs Kai Kara-France

• Karol Rosa (-230)Sara McMann vs Karol Rosa

• Chris Gutierrez - By Points (+215)Danaa Batgerel vs Chris Gutierrez

 

[Bakayoko]

You meant Spivac? And yes, Latifi at this odds seems like a massive steal.

PS: Nvm, I even forgot he fought Daukaus lol. Anyway, Oleinik is really over the hill.

Yeah,I meant Daukaus,forgot about the Spivak fight which I watched yesterday.After some tape I really think it will be hard for him to sub Latifi.He's been on the ground with Spivak for a lot and couldn't,he's slower so its harder for him to catch oponnents.Latifi is a fine grappler,strong,hasn't been subbed and he's like Volk that no neck type of guy.I think Latifi can ride in Oleinik's guard.Now,on the feet Oleinik throws some unortodox stuff and Latifi is low volume,so maybe a path to dec victory for Oleinik,but considering Latifi's got more power and explosivness I doubt it.Latifi usually gases late but Oleinik gassed even more so not so worried about that.Don't like betting on an old HW matchup but feel like it's a good match up for Latifi and he should be more of a favorite.

 

[BigDramaShow26]

Love most of the favorites on this card. Sometimes a disaster, sometimes a huge money maker. Hardly an inbetween

Grasso looks strong at this weight. She has kept her speed and boxing with the added muscle. Wood's only shot is the well timed takedown to steal rounds imo. I dont see it.

Not sure what I'm missing with this Latifi line. Oleinik simply cannot take a punch anymore. He has one round of grappling to be worried about and Latifi is a tank that trains with great grapplers.

Askarov is probably the best fighter at 125 pounds if he gets a chance to prove it. Kai got a nice matchup vs. Garbrandt last time out but he's outgunned everywhere here.

 

[The Disasters]

I don't do much work on the card till Thursday but I did notice a few things at first glance.

Daukaus needs to update his picture on Sherdog! Also, I might bet him at this price. Blaydes is sure to try to wrestle him but Daukaus has that long body that's hard to take down, plus they prepare well.
I will definitely be betting Gutierrez somehow. His leg kicks alone are enough to slow down a big puncher.
Latifi/Oleynik is not a fight I want to see. Latifi looks so bad when he gasses, and as much as I've always loved Oleynik, he's really old. I could see Oleynik subbing him once he's tired, or Latifi laying on him the whole fight.

 

[Joonc]

I don't do much work on the card till Thursday but I did notice a few things at first glance.

Daukaus needs to update his picture on Sherdog! Also, I might bet him at this price. Blaydes is sure to try to wrestle him but Daukaus has that long body that's hard to take down, plus they prepare well.
I will definitely be betting Gutierrez somehow. His leg kicks alone are enough to slow down a big puncher.
Latifi/Oleynik is not a fight I want to see. Latifi looks so bad when he gasses, and as much as I've always loved Oleynik, he's really old. I could see Oleynik subbing him once he's tired, or Latifi laying on him the whole fight.

I think Blaydes size advantage will be a big factor in that fight, I highly doubt that Daukaus will stop the takedowns if that is how you see him winning. IMO Daukaus's only chance is to crack Blaydes' chin which I think he has a good chance of when Blaydes shoots for the TD because Blaydes is terrible at setting up his shots. Otherwise, Daukaus is going to get straight up smushed here.

 

[mkess101]

I don't do much work on the card till Thursday but I did notice a few things at first glance.

Daukaus needs to update his picture on Sherdog! Also, I might bet him at this price. Blaydes is sure to try to wrestle him but Daukaus has that long body that's hard to take down, plus they prepare well.
I will definitely be betting Gutierrez somehow. His leg kicks alone are enough to slow down a big puncher.
Latifi/Oleynik is not a fight I want to see. Latifi looks so bad when he gasses, and as much as I've always loved Oleynik, he's really old. I could see Oleynik subbing him once he's tired, or Latifi laying on him the whole fight.

Latifi KO is very live. Not necessarily because Alexei is so old that his chin is totally shot (though it might be), but because he's so slow at this point that the odds just keep increasing that he's gonna get hit with big punches.

 

[MrShady]

Latifi KO is very live. Not necessarily because Alexei is so old that his chin is totally shot (though it might be), but because he's so slow at this point that the odds just keep increasing that he's gonna get hit with big punches.

I shared that sentiment and then realized how low volume Latifi is and while he is a power puncher, his last KO was years ago.

Oleinik gets finished by blitzes. Fast powerful punchers who swarm and overwhelm him.

I think this will be a frustrating 29-28 kind of fight. Low volume and cheap gas tanks from both sides but Latifi dictating where the fight takes place.

 

[mkess101]

I shared that sentiment and then realized how low volume Latifi is and while he is a power puncher, his last KO was years ago.

Oleinik gets finished by blitzes. Fast powerful punchers who swarm and overwhelm him.

I think this will be a frustrating 29-28 kind of fight. Low volume and cheap gas tanks from both sides but Latifi dictating where the fight takes place.

Oh he's low volume for sure. I have this feeling it won't matter and he'll find one big shot in this one on the very stationary Oleinik. Just kind of a gut feeling though...

 

[The Disasters]

I think Blaydes size advantage will be a big factor in that fight, I highly doubt that Daukaus will stop the takedowns if that is how you see him winning. IMO Daukaus's only chance is to crack Blaydes' chin which I think he has a good chance of when Blaydes shoots for the TD because Blaydes is terrible at setting up his shots. Otherwise, Daukaus is going to get straight up smushed here.

I 100% agree. If Blaydes gets on top he'll ride him out the whole fight. Betting on Daukaus is a bet that he'll be able to stop the takedowns long enough to land a few.

I shared that sentiment and then realized how low volume Latifi is and while he is a power puncher, his last KO was years ago.
Oleinik gets finished by blitzes. Fast powerful punchers who swarm and overwhelm him. I think this will be a frustrating 29-28 kind of fight. Low volume and cheap gas tanks from both sides but Latifi dictating where the fight takes place.

It's insane how low-volume he is. He's a beast of a man but he only throws 1 or 2 at a time.

 

[TheLastOlympian07]

That's what they said for the Colby-Masvidal fight,Mas can keep it standing and crack,we know how that went.Magny should get the UD there.
Latifi is old himself and I can picture him getting caught in a sub from some scramble or from the bottom,but men,Oleinik is gonna be 45 in a few months,45.He looked slow as hell against Daukaus.Latifi should just try to keep it standing and I believe he gets the KO eventually

Latifi the guy who has landed 15 significant strikes (or so) in the past 2 fights that went all 30 minutes? that guy for TKO? seems wild to me

 

[TheLastOlympian07]

Yea I know.

it’s her only ptv and she was able to get shev down for 1 round. That’s the only reason I’d even consider her. If I knew she would be looking to take the fight to ground consistently I’d bet on her. But as we’ve seen with the likes of mckenna, these girls don’t care about strategy or fighting to their strengths.

It was more luck on Maia's part that Shev fell into her. was nothing to do with Maia's takedown ability at all

 

[lefontes]

Im on Oleinik just because Latifi is very low volume. If on the judges will be very very close.

 

[Bakayoko]

Latifi the guy who has landed 15 significant strikes (or so) in the past 2 fights that went all 30 minutes? that guy for TKO? seems wild to me

It was on first glance,but Latifi ML is still good.Also despite his low volume still think there's a good chance he gets a KO as Oleinik is hittable and his chin can fall off anytime.