UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje

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I have a feeling that Chandler is gonna have Ferg on Bambi legs early, and also that any judging bias would favor Chandler if it somehow goes the distance. It always feels like Ferg is in danger of an early stoppage too with the way he ends up on the ground so often.

OSP and Rose, I'm a bit less confident in. Gaethje feels coin flippy, and maybe Trinaldo

Chandler/Rose is +100, might use that as a hedge.

For what it's worth, I've been super casual for years now and I suck at this lol. Haven't watched any tape yet.

Just started betting small single digits mostly for fun recently, and I'm in the red. Might take this round of bets more seriously
 
Oliviera by finish

might bet Esparza right before the fight if her line gets way better - which I think it will .

Valentina pass - not worth those ridiculous odds

Just saw chandler is now -450 which is insane !!…. I like chandler but if it keeps going higher I’ll throw on ferg if he hits plus 500 !

I also don’t mind shogun at +200 …. Yes he’s beyond washed , but osp also has a glass chin and is incredibly inconsistent .

cerrone on paper should win , but he’s absolute glass now too …

this is a tough card for betting in my opinion …. Literally every fight could go either way … I suspect some dogs will win on this card
 
I have a multi-event parlay with the Cerrone fight going under a round and a half, the Oliviera fight going longer than a round and a half, Chandler and Jiri to win. Hoping it goes my way!
 
I’m a huge Gaethje fanboy so take my opinion with a grain of salt.

First off, I see Charles getting tagged with something early making it a live bettors wet dream grabbing him at decent odds like all his recent fights.

Second, I just want to point out that Charles is not Khabib and he’s not gonna slam Justin into full mount effortlessly for a submission win imo.

I think Gaethje will stop any takedowns from Charles but in the scrambles he’s really got to protect his neck or it’s game over. I think Charles has a better shot wrapping up a choke rather than Justin sleeping Charles in the early rounds. Wittman should have a decent gameplan for Justin however with lots of movement, tagging Oliveira from range, avoiding the cage and clinch work.

One thing I think can be an x-factor is the cardio however. I really don’t expect this fight to even last that long but we’ve seen Gaethje beat the prime out of a cardio machine In Ferguson over 5 rounds. Oliveira has looked fine in his recent fight in this department but still never seen him in the later rounds. The pace this fight is expected to take place at who knows how either guy will look however.

I think it’s closer to a pick ‘‘em really and Justin at dog odds I really like him by finish. If Oliveira gets the tar beat out of him early and the odds sway dramatically I’ll probably look to live bet him though.
 
The Podium said:
I’m a huge Gaethje fanboy so take my opinion with a grain of salt.

First off, I see Charles getting tagged with something early making it a live bettors wet dream grabbing him at decent odds like all his recent fights.

Second, I just want to point out that Charles is not Khabib and he’s not gonna slam Justin into full mount effortlessly for a submission win imo.

I think Gaethje will stop any takedowns from Charles but in the scrambles he’s really got to protect his neck or it’s game over. I think Charles has a better shot wrapping up a choke rather than Justin sleeping Charles in the early rounds. Wittman should have a decent gameplan for Justin however with lots of movement, tagging Oliveira from range, avoiding the cage and clinch work.

One thing I think can be an x-factor is the cardio however. I really don’t expect this fight to even last that long but we’ve seen Gaethje beat the prime out of a cardio machine In Ferguson over 5 rounds. Oliveira has looked fine in his recent fight in this department but still never seen him in the later rounds. The pace this fight is expected to take place at who knows how either guy will look however.

I think it’s closer to a pick ‘‘em really and Justin at dog odds I really like him by finish. If Oliveira gets the tar beat out of him early and the odds sway dramatically I’ll probably look to live bet him though.
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I agree with what you about Justin and Charles's fight match and lets not forget Justin fought agaisnt with a Goat in the UFC.

I do think Justin is a great test for Charles.
 
Placed - 3 Team ParlayTo Win $ 304.89
  • Charles Oliveira (-165)Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje
  • Brandon Royval (-250)Brandon Royval vs Matt Schnell
  • Rose Namajunas (-205)
Too many pickems or inconsistent favorites.
 
Im taking Justin as the dog here and ITD when it opens up

FDNGTD is gonna be like -500 I bet lol

thinking of putting a massive bet on OSP too..... How is Shogun who has been Slowgun at this point of his career supposed to win this fight?
 
olives doesn't even need a takedown, can easily standing back take into choke like he did to poirier. gaethje's a white belt.
 
ExitLUPin said:
Im taking Justin as the dog here and ITD when it opens up

FDNGTD is gonna be like -500 I bet lol

thinking of putting a massive bet on OSP too..... How is Shogun who has been Slowgun at this point of his career supposed to win this fight?
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OSP is just as old
 
I'll pay juice on Kleydson, his output will be far too much for Vergara imo. Throws everything with high pressure and pace and is good everywhere.


Someone talk me out of betting on Macy fucking Chiasson.
 
I like Cookie Monster DEC against Rose. She always fights hard for your money and Rose is never a sure thing.

If she can avoid a sub its doubtful Rose will KO her. Her takedowns and aggression should get the DEC win IMO....
 
ExitLUPin said:
Im taking Justin as the dog here and ITD when it opens up

FDNGTD is gonna be like -500 I bet lol

thinking of putting a massive bet on OSP too..... How is Shogun who has been Slowgun at this point of his career supposed to win this fight?
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i like Shogun more than Osp. He’s more fundamentally sound , keeps his hands up high and possesses a nice right hand that he hit Paul Craig with.Osp has a decent right to but leaves his chin in the air too much. im gonna lay a small sprinkle parlay with Shogun and play the dec prop. I’d take an ex champion at those odds against a never was.


Hellowhosthat said:
I'll pay juice on Kleydson, his output will be far too much for Vergara imo. Throws everything with high pressure and pace and is good everywhere.


Someone talk me out of betting on Macy fucking Chiasson.
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Macy is the worst long reach striker in mma besides Meleki. Norma’s fluidity on her feet should win her the fight. her background in Sanda gives her a much more fundamental base for striking, i think she beats macy soundly to a decision. She’s gonna win the combination exchanges and keep Macy guessing.
 
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Mcgregorian said:
I like Cookie Monster DEC against Rose. She always fights hard for your money and Rose is never a sure thing.

If she can avoid a sub its doubtful Rose will KO her. Her takedowns and aggression should get the DEC win IMO....
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Esparza will finish her
 
Stat_Collector said:
i like Shogun more than Osp. He’s more fundamentally sound , keeps his hands up high and possesses a nice right hand that he hit Paul Craig with.Osp has a decent right to but leaves his chin in the air too much. im gonna lay a small sprinkle parlay with Shogun and play the dec prop. I’d take an ex champion at those odds against a never was.




Macy is the worst long reach striker in mma besides Meleki. Norma’s fluidity on her feet should win her the fight. her background in Sanda gives her a much more fundamental base for striking, i think she beats macy soundly to a decision. She’s gonna win the combination exchanges and keep Macy guessing.
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Thanks, I had something down about her being strong in the clinch, can't remember if that's been an issue for Dumont.
 
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