UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje

[Orion]

People value weigh ins way too much and out-think themselves trying to find an edge. Oliveira will be the same as usual. He’s too seasoned.

 

[PuertoRican]

Added to Oliveira at -135. I don't think it's gonna get better.

Half lb miss doesn't sway me from believing he's just clearly the better fighter at this point. I think he wraps Justin up like a pretzel. I also played u1.5 and will play u2.5 when it's available again. I agree with @Captain Chesapeake that if Justin wins it's likely via early KO.

I'm betting (literally LOL) that he'll be fine. His itd line is +110 now, crazy value imo.

I'm big on his ML, have itd and Rd 1 and 2 sub props too. I actually wish I had less on his ML and more on itd but whatever.

Charles Oliveira ITD is now +120.

I have Oliveira -135 and Oliveira ITD +105 and +120.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

A good sign of Tony Ferguson, haven't seen him been quite in a good mood like this.

 

[mkess101]

People value weigh ins way too much and out-think themselves trying to find an edge. Oliveira will be the same as usual. He’s too seasoned.

Agree. A massive weight miss is one thing, could mean an injury that prevented training properly etc. Or when someone looks like absolute death on the scale to the point where you wonder if they should even be there (Chiesa when he was at 155 vs Pettis is a good example). But Charles was neither. He missed by half a pound, which in a non-title fight isn't even a missed weight. He didn't look amazing, but he **mostly** looked the same as normal. And then you have the rumors of the scale calibration being messed up which calls into question whether he actually even missed weight at all.

Add it all up, there's no reason this should sway the lines much at all. I only wish I'd have waited for the better prices on Charles. I did add, but I have plenty at -170 when he's now -135.

 

[mkess101]

A good sign of Tony Ferguson, haven't seen him been quite in a good mood like this.

I will be honest, I think Tony/Chandler is going to be a great back and forth fight. I think the belief that Tony is totally washed is overblown, and I don't think Chandler is capable of holding Tony down the way Charles and Beneil did. Nor do I think Chandler is even going to try a wrestling-heavy approach. His TD's are fine, but his top position and overall grappling is far below Oliveira/Dariush level. This one should be a banger, and the line is way too wide.

The best bet imo is Tony decision at +550. I think this one sees the cards (I like FGD at +145 too) and is very close. I wish there was a "Ferguson split dec" prop on BOL at something like +1100, I'd be hitting that too.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

I will be honest, I think Tony/Chandler is going to be a great back and forth fight. I think the belief that Tony is totally washed is overblown, and I don't think Chandler is capable of holding Tony down the way Charles and Beneil did. Nor do I think Chandler is even going to try a wrestling-heavy approach. His TD's are fine, but his top position and overall grappling is far below Oliveira/Dariush level. This one should be a banger, and the line is way too wide.

The best bet imo is Tony decision at +550. I think this one sees the cards (I like FGD at +145 too) and is very close. I wish there was a "Ferguson split dec" prop on BOL at something like +1100, I'd be hitting that too.

Tony only lost and losses to the best in the division i mean Tony is fighting in the same arena to the same fighters he both lost to.

There is zero shame of losing to oliveira or gaethje to be honest.

I did read somewhere Tony had "Issues" but after yesterday i already placed a bet on Tony and that weigh in showed me he is ready and past those issues.

Chandler is a good fighter but i think he came into the UFC a bit late.

 

[JC615]

I will be honest, I think Tony/Chandler is going to be a great back and forth fight. I think the belief that Tony is totally washed is overblown, and I don't think Chandler is capable of holding Tony down the way Charles and Beneil did. Nor do I think Chandler is even going to try a wrestling-heavy approach. His TD's are fine, but his top position and overall grappling is far below Oliveira/Dariush level. This one should be a banger, and the line is way too wide.

The best bet imo is Tony decision at +550. I think this one sees the cards (I like FGD at +145 too) and is very close. I wish there was a "Ferguson split dec" prop on BOL at something like +1100, I'd be hitting that too.

I'm in Canada so I'm not sure if you are able to use betregal.com or not but they have Tony decision at +650!

 

[mkess101]

I'm in Canada so I'm not sure if you are able to use betregal.com or not but they have Tony decision at +650!

Damn that's even better than I got at +550 which I think is great value.

 

[usernamee]

betting the house on gaethje via ko/tko

if charlie olives win my heart will still be happy

 

[Marko Bionda]

Bro..where are u going to live then? <45>

 

[Orion]

I will be honest, I think Tony/Chandler is going to be a great back and forth fight. I think the belief that Tony is totally washed is overblown, and I don't think Chandler is capable of holding Tony down the way Charles and Beneil did. Nor do I think Chandler is even going to try a wrestling-heavy approach. His TD's are fine, but his top position and overall grappling is far below Oliveira/Dariush level. This one should be a banger, and the line is way too wide.

The best bet imo is Tony decision at +550. I think this one sees the cards (I like FGD at +145 too) and is very close. I wish there was a "Ferguson split dec" prop on BOL at something like +1100, I'd be hitting that too.

Agreed on all fronts. When Gaethje beat Ferguson, it was also a moment in Gaethjes evolution where everyone thought, “wow a patient cerebral Gaethje is another level!”

but even then Ferguson tagged him with some good shots. Chandler isnt that controlled cerebral guy, especially right now in this self-admitted entertaining fight style stage he’s in, where he’s just trying to put on banger fights rather than strategical masterpieces. He’s very wild and his takedowns have more spectacle (big slams for instance) to them than they do tactical control. Chandlers speed is dangerous and Tony will likely get rocked because Tony always gets tagged, but if he can weather the storm he may be able to utilize his length and varied skill set (elbows etc) to give Chandler problems on the feet.

Very different fight than his most recent losses that were primarily overwhelming versus very controlling and disabling grappling styles

 

[TeamVamos]

I actually wish Randy Brown was the favorite he looked good and ready at the face off and weigh in.

Hard betting on either guy. Browns size and length seemed much more pronounced at the weigh ins. I thought they'd be same size. Taking brown by decision seems reasonable.

 

[PuertoRican]

UFC 274 PBP/Discussion: https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufc-274-pbp-discussion.4238556/

 

[Hughesjm1230]

Card are going to be intresting.

 

[mkess101]

I think the best way I'd describe it is that the margin of error is so much smaller for Justin than for Charles. Oliveira can make a mistake, get clipped, and still has options. We've seen it play out. Justin can't make even one mistake or his neck is locked up and it's over. That means not getting hurt by strikes OR making even a slight positional grappling mistake. That's too much to ask of him imo.