UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje

mkess101 said:
Added to Oliveira at -135. I don't think it's gonna get better.

Half lb miss doesn't sway me from believing he's just clearly the better fighter at this point. I think he wraps Justin up like a pretzel. I also played u1.5 and will play u2.5 when it's available again. I agree with @Captain Chesapeake that if Justin wins it's likely via early KO.
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Well on the scale he did look a bit tired but okish.

Oliveira did weigh in the day before the official weigh in.
 
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The Cowboy and Lauzon one face offs looked good both looked good and ready to fight.
 
Strange that Oliveira weighed in fine just fine a day before the official in?

I hope oliveira is going to be ok for saturday.

I am starting to be a bit disappointed in the UFC over these weigh ins.
 
GoldenWolf87 said:
Strange that Oliveira weighed in fine just fine a day before the official in?

I hope oliveira is going to be ok for saturday.

I am starting to be a bit disappointed in the UFC over these weigh ins.
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he will be fine, 0.5 is nothing and not even a weight miss unless a championship fight. Plus depends how much truth there is with those scale rumors
 
BigSteve said:
he will be fine, 0.5 is nothing and not even a weight miss unless a championship fight. Plus depends how much truth there is with those scale rumors
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Its going to suck if he wins and no title that means he has to wait at least a year? or months for another title run.

Now why would the UFC still use a digital weigh one? i dont bother with digital weigh ins for myself as i dont trust digital weigh ins.
 
Oliveira is the worst matchup for Gaethje.Justin defensive jits is really bad and Oliveira is a wizard on the ground,having a hard time seeing Justin surviving when it hits the mat.He doesn't need a double leg to get this to the mat,he's so crafty that he has many ways to get there.Chucky's also very versatile on the feet and throws knees and front and teep kicks which could disrupt Gaethje a lot.Justin is not out of chances as he hits hard and throws a lot of volume and Oliveira's head movement lacks a bit,but we have seen Oliveira eat shots from Chandler and Poirier and surviving.Justin can't last 5 rounds without getting finished,I'm completely passing Oliveira ML and just playing his ITD and round props.
I can see some value on Tony and why people want to bet him.He's nevere been KO'd,he has taken a break since his last fight which could do him good.Also,Chandler as good as he is is still the guy with some underperforming matches in bellator,is pretty basic striking and can gas badly.That being said Tony is so old and in brief exchanges on the feet vs Dariush looked so slow and with diminished reflexes that I can't bet him.The Chandler DEC line can be found at 4,33 and that's the best bet for me.
 
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Realistically, what % chance do you give Gaethje/Oliveira going to decision? At the risk of sounding like hyperbole, I'm saying maybe 2%. It's got to be single digits at best.
 
GoldenWolf87 said:
Strange that Oliveira weighed in fine just fine a day before the official in?

I hope oliveira is going to be ok for saturday.

I am starting to be a bit disappointed in the UFC over these weigh ins.
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I'm betting (literally LOL) that he'll be fine. His itd line is +110 now, crazy value imo.

I'm big on his ML, have itd and Rd 1 and 2 sub props too. I actually wish I had less on his ML and more on itd but whatever.
 
Oblivian said:
Realistically, what % chance do you give Gaethje/Oliveira going to decision? At the risk of sounding like hyperbole, I'm saying maybe 2%. It's got to be single digits at best.
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I'd have said 5% or so prior to Charles missing weight. Maybe I'd bump that to 10% or so now, just because there's a slight chance Charles did have a terrible cut and starts strong but fades and Justin doesn't have enough left either to put him away. So FDNGD still has value for sure at -450 imo, but I'm already too invested in Oliveira to add more to that prop. I do have some on u1.5 and will play u2.5 for a little too, in case Justin sparks Charles early.
 
JC615 said:
Cowboy looks in great condition and Lauzon looks like an old man who just shit himself.
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IDK...I actually think Joe may well be the more durable of the 2 at this point. That's not saying a lot but I'm taking a little stab at Lauzon rd 1 KO at +600.

Cowboy always a slow starter and Joe never afraid to mix it up. If Cowboy is totally shot, I could see Joe catching him and jumping on him for a quick TKO.
 
mkess101 said:
IDK...I actually think Joe may well be the more durable of the 2 at this point. That's not saying a lot but I'm taking a little stab at Lauzon rd 1 KO at +600.

Cowboy always a slow starter and Joe never afraid to mix it up. If Cowboy is totally shot, I could see Joe catching him and jumping on him for a quick TKO.
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Oh I just meant that Lauzon in that weigh-in pic looked like he shat himself haha. As for the fight itself, hard to lay juice on Cowboy. I might stay away from that one and just enjoy it as a fan.

If anyone likes Gaethje by KO/TKO/DQ - Betway is offering a +300 boost on that prop.
 
JC615 said:
Oh I just meant that Lauzon in that weigh-in pic looked like he shat himself haha. As for the fight itself, hard to lay juice on Cowboy. I might stay away from that one and just enjoy it as a fan.

If anyone likes Gaethje by KO/TKO/DQ - Betway is offering a +300 boost on that prop.
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If Justin wins it's like 80% that it's by KO so for sure that's a good play.
 
Parlay FDGTD Rua x Ovince + FDGTD Oliveira x Gaethje 1.80 is steal

Rua x Ovince, any done before 2 rounds maybe 1 round, age and gasses for both guys. The ME is going be Charles by sub ou Justin by ko.
 
Randy Brown seemed taller and larger than anticipated. Wanted to toss some on Kalin but now not so much. Browns best shot is to strike from distance. Like Carnelossi's output versus Loopy. Think she can keep the pressure on and I don't love how Godinez fights going backwards. Carnelossi is a worse grappling version of Andrade. Blagoi looked old walking around at the weigh INS. His toughness should still be enough to hang in there and pick up a decision on Lima.
 
mkess101 said:
I'm betting (literally LOL) that he'll be fine. His itd line is +110 now, crazy value imo.

I'm big on his ML, have itd and Rd 1 and 2 sub props too. I actually wish I had less on his ML and more on itd but whatever.
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I saw people betting him with their whole money "house money" yes really.

In any case i had made two round robins today.
 
TeamVamos said:
Randy Brown seemed taller and larger than anticipated. Wanted to toss some on Kalin but now not so much. Browns best shot is to strike from distance. Like Carnelossi's output versus Loopy. Think she can keep the pressure on and I don't love how Godinez fights going backwards. Carnelossi is a worse grappling version of Andrade. Blagoi looked old walking around at the weigh INS. His toughness should still be enough to hang in there and pick up a decision on Lima.
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I actually wish Randy Brown was the favorite he looked good and ready at the face off and weigh in.
 
I am sure Dana White still favors Conor despite him losing many fights and i am sure this was a way to get back to Conor favoritism.

With all the paddy pimblett eating fast food jokes, the UFC is giving paddy pimblett a very difficult match up this year.
 
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