International Russia/Ukraine Megathread V12

Status
Not open for further replies.
How big is the Ukrainian Army? How many soldiers are they losing a month. Do the math. The Ukrainian Army is slowly shrinking. How much longer will the fighting continue?
200.gif
 
- I read that Wagner wasn't gonna to leave.Now got this news:

Wagner troops leave Central African Republic after 'refusing contracts with Russia'

There has been an increase in Russian planes passing through Uganda and "going to and from unknown destinations", say analysts.

Yousra Elbagir
Africa correspondent @YousraElbagir

High-level officials in Bangui have confirmed the departure of Wagner personnel from the Central African Republic (CAR).

Senior sources from CAR's ministry of defence and an official from the Russian embassy have revealed around 400 Wagner employees left the capital on two planes on Wednesday, confirming local reports of Wagner disengagement.

One ministry of defence official said the Wagner Group personnel who left refused to sign new contracts with Russia's ministry of defence.

He revealed between 1,300 and 1,400 Wagner employees still remained in the country but that around a hundred were packing up to leave Bouar, a key base on the trading route with Cameroon.

Bouar is a critical stronghold against rebels incentivised to take control of the base and disrupt the lucrative timber trade - a massive threat to the country's President Faustin-Archange Touadera, who Wagner is contracted to protect.

CAR's government signed a defence deal with the Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov after a reported meeting in October 2017.

The security and political support offered to President Touadera's regime in exchange for access to mining operations began when the first Wagner mercenaries arrived in January 2018.

During their five years of operation, Wagner has been accused of carrying out mass atrocities against the local population.

Now, in the fallout of Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin's failed coup against Russia's armed forces in Moscow, the nature of the group's presence in CAR is vulnerable to change.

A second source from the highest ranks of CAR's ministry of defence confirmed that "hundreds" of Wagner personnel had left and that there was still confusion within government on future dealings with Russian security involvement.

He added there was eagerness to continue security contracts with Russia, and if Moscow wanted to change its relationship with Wagner as an implementing force then the CAR government would accept it.

Shortly after Prigozhin's halted march to Moscow on 25 June, an adviser to President Touadera and former minister Fidele Gouandijika said: "In 2018, CAR signed a defence agreement with Russia and not with Wagner.

"If Russia has no agreement anymore with Wagner it will send us a new contingent.

"Maybe the chef will change but the Wagner soldiers will continue operating for Russia."

Flights to 'unknown destinations'

Reports of Wagner departures have been circulating since Wednesday but a plane carrying personnel out of Bangui was documented as early as Monday.

Africa-focused security analyst Ian Cox has been monitoring aircraft movements in Wagner's areas of operations on the continent since Prigozhin's attempted coup.

"Over the past week there has been a notable increase in Russian-made Ilyushin Il-76 strategic airlifters passing through Entebbe, Uganda, going to and from unknown destinations further into the region," he said.

"A notable exception being a Russian registered Il-76 which arrived in Bangui on July 3 from Russia and departed the same day to Entebbe.

"This aircraft then departed to Dubai on July 6 before flying to Tyumen, Russia on the morning of July 7."

A senior Ugandan military commander told Sky News the aircraft was carrying personnel when it left Entebbe, Uganda's main airport.

The plane's final destination, Tyumen, a city in Russian Siberia, is home to one of the two Wagner recruitment centres that reopened after Prigozhin's failed rebellion.

John Lechner, an independent researcher studying Wagner in CAR, put these findings to a Wagner source in Bangui who dismissed them and said
"local guys are unaware".

"Wagner forces are clearly moving both within CAR and out - and everyone in Bangui is trying to figure out whether this reflects rainy season patterns and standard rotations or if it is something different," said Mr Lechner.

"The news that Prigozhin is back in Russia, potentially having his assets returned, is making it even harder to read the tea leaves."

https://news.sky.com/story/wagner-t...fter-refusing-contracts-with-russia-12916846#



 
I have obtained some exlusive footage.

F0s4Zf5WwAE_sVT
Yeah found more about it:
The former commander of the submarine "Krasnodar", from which "Kalibr" missiles were launched onto Ukraine, 42-year-old Captain 2nd Rank Stanislav Rzhitsky, went for a morning run, and an unknown individual ambushed him, shooting him four times in the back and chest, before fleeing the scene, reports Shot russian channel.
 
Yeah found more about it:
The former commander of the submarine "Krasnodar", from which "Kalibr" missiles were launched onto Ukraine, 42-year-old Captain 2nd Rank Stanislav Rzhitsky, went for a morning run, and an unknown individual ambushed him, shooting him four times in the back and chest, before fleeing the scene, reports Shot russian channel.
Exclusive video
The-Sopranos_S.01_E.13_I-Dream-of-Jeannie-Cusamano-1.gif
 
How big is the Ukrainian Army? How many soldiers are they losing a month. Do the math. The Ukrainian Army is slowly shrinking. How much longer will the fighting continue?

Ukr army right now is almost same size as Rus army in numbers. And as much as they are losing, the rus are losing just as much. Yes there are twice as many russians than ukrainians but that is balanced by war being fought in ukrainian soil, hence soldiers having higher morale, Ukr using martial law, winning the war in media etc.

As for the last question, it depends on what you consider 'fighting'. They are for 9 years in this war already, more intensively for 17 months and more passive/localized other years of fighting. My assumption based on the ORIGIN and REASON of the conflict is it will continue for at least 5 years intensively, before entering a passive cycle again. Hostilities will not stop for at least 20 years. There'll be revenge for every single lost soul in one way or the other, be it near the front or somewhere in a metro in Petersburg now or in 2037.
 
Meter by meter.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-...ke-bakhmut-from-russian-forces-193247662.html

Ukraine making progress in push to retake Bakhmut from Russian forces
Ukrainian troops have seized positions west of the city in the village of Klishchiivka.

"
Ukraine making progress in push to retake Bakhmut from Russian forces
Ukrainian troops have seized positions west of the city in the village of Klishchiivka.
601
Michael Weiss and James Rushton
Mon, July 10, 2023 at 12:32 PM PDT


d47f11d0-1f56-11ee-975f-5f33262ba4c3

A Ukrainian soldier near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region of Ukraine. (Roman Chop via AP)
Russia’s grip on Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine appears to be loosening as Ukrainian forces continue their push to encircle and liberate the beleaguered city.

Home to 73,000 people before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 of last year, Bakhmut is now largely a pockmarked moonscape of blasted-out buildings. Having experienced some of the fiercest urban warfare Europe had seen since the end of World War II, the city was captured by Russian forces on May 20.

Since the launch of a spring counteroffensive, however, Ukrainian forces have begun operations around Bakhmut, making slow progress in southeast Ukraine, in the regions of Donetsk and Zaporizhia. There, Ukrainian forces, backed by NATO-supplied armor, have been probing for Russian weaknesses but have yet to make a serious breakthrough. Mainly their efforts have been hampered by extensive minefields, well-constructed Russian fortifications and the dominant presence of Russian aviation.

For all that, however, Ukraine insists that it is conserving the resource most vital to its eventual military victory: human lives. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, told ABC News on July 5 that Russian losses are “eight times or even 10 times” higher than Ukrainian ones. Even if this figure is exaggerated, an army conducting an offensive typically loses three times as many soldiers as the defending side. Ukraine is advancing in the south on average a kilometer per day, a European diplomat told Yahoo News.

Gaining ground
caaabe20-1f56-11ee-bfef-aba40add0ad3

Bakhmut, the site of heavy fighting against Russian soldiers in the Donetsk region. (Libkos/AP)
In Bakhmut, Ukraine’s achievements are more conspicuous.

Kyiv’s offensive push for the city began in mid-June, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. The British Ministry of Defence assesses that Kyiv has made “steady gains” to the north and south of Bakhmut. In the south, Ukrainian troops have seized positions on the high ground to the immediate west of the village of Klishchiivka, putting the Russian troops in the settlement in the unenviable position of taking fire from elevated positions. In the north, Ukrainian forces made “tactically significant gains,”according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, as they pushed the Russian forces back toward the village of Yahidne.

On Monday, Syrskyi announced that Kyiv had put all of Bakhmut under “fire control,” meaning Ukrainian forces are now within striking range of all Russian targets.

Both Russian, Ukrainian and Western sources point to the deteriorating morale situation among Russian forces in the area, which has led to several instances of localized mutinies as groups of Russian soldiers refuse to fight. Videos of multiple groups of insubordinates have circulated on Russian Telegram, usually with the Russians complaining about heavy losses, inadequate artillery support and meager pay — all criticisms, it bears noting, that Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin leveled against Moscow in the lead-up to his mutiny last month. “We asked our commanders to bring us food and water,” one group of Russian conscripts from Altai Krai in Siberia complained. “They responded to us with swear words.”

e26a1880-1f51-11ee-bfdb-64aec96e016c

Russia already paid a high price for Bakhmut.

One unnamed Western official told Sky News it suffered 60,000 casualties during the winter and spring campaign, with as many as a third of that number killed, as a “conservative estimate.” Wagner Group mercenaries took especially high casualties in the campaign, which contributed to Prigozhin’s stunning if short-lived putsch inside Russia. When the city was finally captured in May, some groups of Wagner mercenaries celebrated by waving not the Russian tricolor but their own flag.

Wagner had entirely pulled out of Bakhmut by late June, mere days before Prigozhin mobilized them in Russia to seize Rostov-on-Don, the headquarters of Russia’s Southern Military District, which is in charge of all the regions Russia “annexed” in Ukraine.

Turning the tables
a7472450-1f56-11ee-9e27-f0db3f345cfc

Ukrainian soldiers of the 57th brigade in tactical training as the Russian-Ukrainian war continues. (Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
Ukraine‘s decision to fight a grueling attritional defensive battle became the subject of much criticism, particularly in the West, where analysts and Pentagon officials claimed the most combat-experienced Ukrainian troops were being sacrificed for a place that carried little intrinsic strategic value to the overall fortunes of the war.

Russia will now have a similar choice to make if Ukraine continues its advances to the flanks of the city. Should Russia withdraw to avoid encirclement, it will be difficult to couch that at home as anything other than an abject humiliation given the resources spent on Bakhmut for more than 10 months. Should Russia commit more troops in Bakhmut at the expense of its more secure defensive lines elsewhere in eastern and also southern Ukraine, it could give Kyiv the opportunity for a breakthrough at other points along the frontline.

“The Russian leadership almost certainly see it as politically unacceptable to concede Bakhmut, which has a symbolic weight as one of the few Russian gains in the last 12 months,” the British Ministry of Defence said in its daily intelligence update. But, as is always the case in war, the enemy gets a vote too.
"
 
Biden is giving Ukraine cluster bombs which over 100 countries banned the use of due to high risk to civilians.
 
really? hey everyone! white whale says biden is giving ukraine cluster bombs!

This thread is the pit stop for many casuals who don't know shit about the war but due to preferences in internal politics like to take a certain stance about a certain news title they've read in Facebook or somewhere.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

Back
Top