Official UFC 178 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

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What's your scoop on Lee? I bit on Tuck at +220 for a tiny play. I was going to pass on this one, but +220 was too good to pass up.

Tuck's pace is just not good enough I think to hang with Lee. I think that Lee is going to develop into a very good fighter down the line top 10 worthy. He will be able to control where the fight goes and that's going to be big. He fought Iaquinta while training at his small camp & has since moved on which I think is good for him. Tuck never shoots and has to rely on the clinch to get his takedowns and Lee will have a big reach advantage on him making that difficult. His line has gone way up at 2-1 though I thought that he was a fantastic bet. Really think that he goes out and steam rolls Tuck. I mean check out their last 2 fights.
 
This is such a contentious fight man with a lot of solid arguments for both guys ..I'm starting to think that the sharpest move is just to pass this fight as I cant fault a bet on either guy nor can I fault a bet on the Over or the under.

The only thing I am at least pretty confident about is if Alvarez was to win it would be by Decision




Seriously Just add him to Ignore and this thread is a much better place..

I have to ask you why are have you started touting? I never understood why Successful gamblers would bother with this stuff? The amount of money you would make from selling premium packs should pale in significance to what you are making actually gambling 10K on fights.

Not shitting on you man just curious that's all

Hey man,

I'm glad you asked.

I first set the website up because I have been making good money from betting on MMA for a long time now and I thought it'd be really cool to help people make some extra money.

The only problem is that the website grew big and fast and it started to draw a lot of attention.

A lot of the attention was negative and I found myself continually having to justify myself, even though I was trying to help people for free!!!

This meant that I had to put a lot more time into writing betting tips because I had to be a lot more thorough and put a lot of time and thought into my writing style.

The website went from taking a couple of hours a week to administer to literally 1-3 days every single week. It was becoming a full time job... [it still is]

You can see what I mean by reading my tips now and comparing them to the ones I was writing when I first started the site. Go back and check, the changes I have had to make are huge!

Back in the summer I went travelling for 4 weeks and it was around about the same time that the UFC started to do 2 events in one day or weekend.

Whilst everyone who I was travelling with was out having fun, I was literally spending days sat in internet cafes and hotel lobbys writing betting tips and doing fight research.

I ended up making an overall loss over that 4 week period and a few people started to take the piss out of me on here and Twitter etc.

It was becoming increasingly difficult to keep conducting betting research and writing betting tips every week with the packed UFC schedule. When I only bet for myself, I would skip events if I had stuff going on in my life, but I didn't feel I could do that with the website, because I had regular visitors who relied on my articles for help.

At this point, I was going to close the website down. After all, I gain absolutely NOTHING from it and it costs me a lot of time and money. The negativity from people was starting to get me down.

I was literally done with the website and then I saw an interview with Dana White in Dublin where he was talking about the growth of MMA and how it's going to be the biggest sport in the world. He also spoke about how much they had achieved in 13 years and how they almost gave up in the beginning.

And then I thought about how much the website had grown in just 6 months and how many people would be looking to bet on MMA in the future.

I thought it would be a waste to let all my hard work count for nothing and I hate quitting, so I decided to go big or go home.

I decided to treat the website as a business and see how far I could take it.

The next event was UFC Fight Night Dublin and I had my biggest win of the year winning 8 out of 8 bets for a huge night of profit.

The I started to think...

As MMA bettors we use all these different websites on a weekly basis:

- Kountermove
- Fightmetric
- Wikipedia
- Betting tracker
- Sherdog fighter database
- SBR Forum
- Sherdog Forum
- Best Fight Odds
- Odds Checker
- MMA Playground

But none of them are great and none of them tick all the boxes.

I thought it be a great idea if there was a website which brought all the benefits of these platforms together in one place, but eradicated all of their weaknesses.

Wouldn't it be cool if someone had one User Profile on one website and all their forum posts, fantasy MMA stats, betting performance trackers etc were all assigned to their profile.

So I went and spoke to a Web Developer and got a quote on how much it would cost to build all these features into my website and the cost is going to be pretty huge.

So I figured the best way to get the ball rolling would be to charge a low monthly subscription amount for access to my betting tips, I could then start to build the new features in slowly on a month by month basis.

The amount I charge makes it affordable for anyone to sign up and the membership will more than pay for itself from the money you will win from following my tips.

I make 50% of my tips available to the public and the other 50% available to Premium Members, so people can still follow my tips and make some money and if they have success they can become a Premium Member when they trust my information.

So yeah, I guess to answer your question. I was thinking of shutting the website down due to the amount of negativity I was encountering and the time it takes to run, but then I thought fuck it.

Lets go big or go home!

Hope that makes sense mate!
 
I'm aware that Cerrone has flaws in his game, but I don't believe they will be as big of an issue against Alvarez as you do.

I'm pretty confident that Cerrone will win and my main reasons are:

- Cerrone has a big time reach advantage on Alvarez and he's a rangey striker.
- Alvarez is chinny and he's coming back from a concussion injury which means he's going to be even more chinny than before.
- Alvarez's inactivity will impact his performance.
- Octagon jitters are a big issue and Cerrone's not the kind of guy you want to be fighting if you're feeling nervous and tentative.

I really like Eddie Alvarez, I'm a massive fan of his and I think he will do well in the UFC. But this is a horrible match up for him.

I respect your opinion if you feel differently, but I can't see him lasting 15 minutes without getting dropped. He doesn't have the chin or striking defence to do it.

agree with this to an extent, an exception being eddie's offensive striking can negate all of this. but then again that is reflected in the near evens odds.
but yeah the concussion injury could spell disaster for eddie, especially considering the damage he took in both the chandler fights combined!
im leaving the ML for this fight( apart from a nice arb i got) and instead am playing the not go the distance line at 1.83 which i feel is a better bet than picking either guy, especially considering they're nearly the same odds, and both guys defense and style is susceptible for a lot of shots landing.
 
012_Johnson_and_Cariaso.jpg


010_Cerrone_and_Alvarez.jpg


008_Poirier_and_McGregor.jpg


006_Kennedy_and_Romero.jpg


004_Zingano_and_Nunes.jpg


002_Cruz_and_Mizugaki.jpg
 
Eddie is a much better boxer than Cerrone. It's not even close.

Cerrone pumps out his awkward jab-feint and has a strong straight right for sure but almost all of his best work is done with his kicks

HOWEVER Eddie's chin is so questionable at this point that he is liable to get dropped by almost any strike he doesn't see coming. And as others have pointed out ALL the momentum is on Cerrone's side whereas Eddie is coming back from a war and a concussion. Getting dropped by a quick jab and getting choked out like Barboza is definitely something I could see happening.

.

Yes, Eddie is a much better boxer than Cerrone -- that's a fact. Yes, Cowboy is on a run, but let's not forget he was losing in each of his past 3 fights before coming back -- I know b/c I got him at + odds on livebet lol. Indeed, Edson Barboza, Adriano Martins and especially Jim Miller were having great success before Cowboy came back. However, that doesn't mean Eddie will run roughshod over Cerrone, just look to the Kikuno fight if you want scared off of Alvarez.

BTW: For those talking about Cowboy having an advantage because Alvarez has been out for so long, I think it is noteworthy to remember some facts about Alvarez and his past.

Remember, prior to Alvarez returning to fight Michael Chandler in a rematch, Eddie had only 4:54 seconds of cage time in 18 months, been inactive for over a year,
was in a terrible dispute with Bellator, and closed as a +263 dog to Chandler in a rematch. Still, with ALL these issues, Eddie returned and beat Chandler in a career performance. Speaks tp his skills and more to his intangibles.
 
Man there are some serious debates going on in this thread over the Alvarez/Cerrone, Poirer/Mcgregor, and Kennedy/Romero fights. What a great card been a while since I've been this excited for a PPV can't wait.

I've got 50$ on Alvarez to win
10$ Kennedy/Romero Over 2.5
10$ Porier/Mcgregor under 2.5
10$ Zingano/Nunes under 2.5
10$ Cruz/Mizugaki over 2.5
5$ on Mizugaki to win
10$ Howard/Ebersole Over 2.5
10$ Mazvidal/Krause over 2.5
10$ Thompson/Cote Under 2.5
 
Hey man,

I'm glad you asked.



So yeah, I guess to answer your question. I was thinking of shutting the website down due to the amount of negativity I was encountering and the time it takes to run, but then I thought fuck it.

Lets go big or go home!

Hope that makes sense mate!

All of that scares me. I mean I'm glad that my site is pretty much small scale but the days I post my betting tips get more traffic than any other (even though it's not the main purpose for the site). As I get better at my pics, the traffic grows and you feel kind of an obligation to put more work into it. For me, it's all about math so I don't let my personal observations or opinions go into the picks at all. I let the experts do that and then I analyze what they have to say it and weight it against the math of the odds and it's worked pretty good so far.

But I'm spending far too much time on it already, especially considering I'm not making anything off of it, and the bigger it gets the more personal obligation you feel for whatever reason. People have suggested the idea of "premium picks" for people that would pay and I hope it never comes to that but I could see why it would be necessary for you for sure.
 
friday mma bets:

bellator

Halsey +144: 300 for 432.50
Halsey DEC: 50 for 280.50
Halsey-Shlemenko O1.5: 90 for 50

Held -115: 115.30 for 100

Meller +260: 19.23 for 50

Richman -210: 210 for 100

100 for 110.44 richman -210 & ebersole-howard O2.5 -235 (ufc 178)

50 for 80.59 richman -210 & held -130

---
Titan

Brilz-Magalhaes O1.5: 96 for 60
Gutierrez -185: 185 for 100

i'll post ufc plays after weighins
 
man, wanna do something on FOTN for poirier-mcgregor and/or cerrone-alvarez.. even w/mizugaki-cruz on card and zingano-nunes..

they're both just over +300..

so if you played both, it pays like even $ if one hits... thoughts on that idea? even money for one of those two fights to be FOTN?
 
Alvarez vs. Cowboy b/d (long)
Alright! Eddie Alvarez vs. Donald "Rye" Cerrone will meet each other on Saturday in the prime of their careers, and I expect more explosions than a Michael Bay film.

Finally, in what should be (about) Eddie Alvarez's 8th year with Zuffa, the Philadelphia born brawler is here. I say 8th year, because Eddie tried out for yet wasn't selected to TUF II -- but shit, how'd you expect him to compete with the likes of Luke Cummo & Sammy Morgan bro? In fact, after Marcus Davis got injured, Eddie was flown out to Vegas and kept in a hotel here he was expected to be used as an alternate, but alas, it wasn't to be. Again, FFS, how could the producers turn down an opportunity to air the charismatic personality of one Jason Von Flue through our SPIKE TV ?! Anyhow, Eddie took the long route around the mountain -- or rather straight fucking through it, and after a decade of winning titles and dusting the worlds best in every organization not named UFC, the kid is at long last here.

In Alvarez you have a fighter who has fought 28 professional times losing only 3 of them -- a sneaky submission loss via kneebar to a clever Shinya Aoki and a loss in one of the best fights of all time against Michael Chandler -- both defeats avenged. His only other loss was seven years ago at WW to a much larger Nick Thompson. Furthermore, Alvarez hasn't been fighting tomato cans, his scalps include Shinya Aoki, Michael Chandler, Pat Curran, Roger Huerta, Josh Neer, Katsunori Kikuno, Tatsuya Kawajiri, and Joachim Hansen amongst others. Also noteworthy, Eddie's only been knocked out once in 28 fights - that to the far larger Thompson. No doubt, Eddie's ability to stay conscious has much to do with his granite chin, but mostly it is a result of his extraordinary head movement and sound overall defensive aptitude. His wrestling roots are apparent in his relatively moderately crouched, closed stance, and he amplifies his ability to minimize clean punches and/or be taken down by utilizing active footwork, combined with lightning quick reactions, tremendous stability, accurate clean counters, and dynamite in both hands adversaries are forced to respect.

A lot of fans this weekend will get there first glimpse of Alvarez and have the opportunity to see that they're still remains great fighters outside the UFC even today *GASP* Fortunately, I, like you (hopefully) have had the opportunity to watch him for years, dating back to his days in Bodog throughout the DREAM tournament, and finally BELLATOR. Anyone who has had the pleasure of watching Eddie fight has gotten to see a fighter with an exceptional skill set and a absolute love for his craft. Indeed, not only is Eddie a supremely gifted mixed martial artist, but the guy is an absolute warrior to the core. For Alvarez, it is just in his DNA as The City of Brotherly Love has long been a fighting city. From the fictional Rocky Balboa to the actual home of some of the most merciless badasses in boxing history including Jersey Joe Walcott, Sonny Liston, Bernard Hopkins, Joe Frazier, Tim Witherspoon and Meldrick Taylor amongst others. Coincidentally, like those HOF pugilists -- Alvarez himself is an exceptional purveyor of the sweet science -- possibly the best in the LW division today.

Eddie Alvarez has skillfully merged his boxing and wrestling yet instead of mirroring your prototypical wrestle boxer, Alvarez has become an absolutely masterful kickboxer. Indeed, Eddies training alongside GLORY kickboxing ace Tyrone Spong at the Blackzilians has obviously paid dividends as evinced by his ferocious fight ending HHK in his penultimate Bellator tilt at the expense of the mediocre Pitbull brother. Right now, Eddie is just firing on all cylinders, and if his tilt with Roger Huerta illustrated anything, it is that Eddie needs a nickname, and we would call him "The Mechanic" for the bodywork he put in -- the paint job came with the package. The gifs below absolutely demonstrate just how dangerous Eddie's striking has become as well as the diversity Cowboy is going to be dealing with.

bodyrh.gif

hhk.gif
Stylistically, Alvarez is just a bad matchup for Cowboy, and if octagon jitters do not freeze up the UFC debutante, then I believe he will most likely pick up a win in his first fight in the organization. That is to say, Donald has long been at his best when he could sit back and play the role of a sniper. To achieve this, Cowboy needs a willing dance partner who will let him lead the waltz. Fighters such as Martins, Noons, Siver, and Barboza. When Cowboy's adversary allows him to compete with composure and patience, it is the equivalent of finding a rattlesnake in the desert and poking it with a stick - you are in complete control until all the sudden you're not - just ask Edson Barboza what happens when you blink. (in case he forgot)

DonaldCerroneDropsandRearNakedChokesEdsonBarboza-UFConFox11.gif
Conversely, look at the fighters who have fared well versus Donald - they are all aggressive fighters who stayed in his face and didn't let Cowboy have time to sit back and land those homerun strikes of his. Specifically fighters like Nate Diaz, who stayed right in Donald's face and never let him take a breath -- that broke him. Even less skilled strikers such as Jim Miller were able to have a lot of success early because he didn't give Cowboy time and space to operate. If we look at RDA, who was the last person to best Cowboy, it is easy to see how Alvarez can present some the exact same problems. Chiefly among them being pressure, pressure, pressure! Never did RDA allow Donald to dictate the pace of fight, he stayed right in Cowboys face throwing punches - predominantly the overhand right which was the counter to Donald's long rangy jab.

While Cowboy may have an advantage in the versatility department due to his Muay-Thai and kickboxing background, Alvarez makes up for any shortcoming in overall striking due to his athleticism and speed. Possessing exemplary athletic qualities, Alvarez is going to have a quickness, agility and explosiveness edge to go along with his pernicious punching power. What's more, Donald often eschews basic fundamental defensive technique as he leaves his chin bolt straight in the air like a flagpole in perfect position to get teed off on. Consequently, this is what almost got him knocked out by Melvin Guillard before Melvin Guillard remembered he was of course Melvin Guillard . However, Eddie Alvarez is not Jim Miller or Melvin Guillard, and if Cowboy fights like he always does (which I have no reason to doubt he will) then I believe this fight is going to be won with speed and clean punching, which assuredly goes in the favor of the Philadelphia native.

IMO, the pertinent advantages in this contest rest with Alvarez, who no doubt is gunning to make a splash in his Octagon, but to underestimate Cowboy would be crazy. One of the many flaws Eddie has in his game is getting over confident and reckless -- as the gif below illustrates, Eddie will often lead with an uppercut like Prince Naseem Hamed -- which is crazy unless you are a prime Roy Jones Jr. or of course -- Prince Naseem Hamed! The lead uppercut is slow, telegraphed and it exposes your head -- yet Alvarez continues to throw it.

bolo.gif
Additionally, in his fight with Kikuno, the Japanese Karate stylist was able to land myriad teeps to the solar plexus and several shin digging roundhouse kicks to Alvarez's liver I
 
friday mma bets:

bellator

Halsey +144: 300 for 432.50
Halsey DEC: 50 for 280.50
Halsey-Shlemenko O1.5: 90 for 50

Held -115: 115.30 for 100

Meller +260: 19.23 for 50

Richman -210: 210 for 100

100 for 110.44 richman -210 & ebersole-howard O2.5 -235 (ufc 178)

50 for 80.59 richman -210 & held -130

---
Titan

Brilz-Magalhaes O1.5: 96 for 60
Gutierrez -185: 185 for 100

i'll post ufc plays after weighins

Any particular reason you like Hasley so much? I am on Held and Richman as well, possibly Campos
 
Dude, you are the biggest nuthugger ever. Have you even watched the Barboza fight. Cerrone TKOed him and then followed him to the ground and RNCed him. Just because you follow someone to the ground and submit them doesnt mean they weren't done. If you don't think Cerrone has any power you are so damn ignorant. He has power in his hands and feet, maybe not more than Alvarez but definitely enough to hurt Eddie badly. Additionally, he has precise and killer kicks something that you just completely ignore because again you have no ability to reason. Yes, kicks are allowed in MMA. another thing you fail to realize is that Cerrone is going to have a huge reach advantage, something that you choose to neglect completely.

You are the biggest nuthugger with no ability to see anything any other way. I am done playing games with you. Friere is not the best fighter in the world amd you have the logic of an infant

So wait... You come out and say "Cerrone KO'd Barboza" I correct you for being wrong. Then you follow up and tell me I'm an irrational nut hugger then ironically you claim " Cerrone TKO'd Barboza" then RNC him..... W... T... F are you talking about? He dropped him, Barboza was on his way to his feet and Cerrone jumped on his back. How the fuck is that KOing someone? If you feel that was a KO then I agree, Cerrone has CRAZY KO power. I'm seriously laughing at you right now bro.

Now, I "completely neglect the reach advantage of Cerrone" do you know how to read? I've stated several times in this threads as well as numerous threads that I'm concernd with Cerrones Reach and low kicks, not so much his high kicks.

The only thing I've stated so far are FACTS. Eddie has more power and speed, Cerrone is not a KO artist.

Finally, the nail in the coffin " Friere is not the best fighter in the World" please go up and read my comments on Friere, this reach by you makes you look very desperate. The only comments I've made on Friere is that he should beat Held in a matchup that's basically a pick'em.

Now, please respond with some irrational shit about how I'm a nut hugger and there's no way Cerrone loses this fight.
 
Someone few pages back said it brilliantly about many people perhaps fading Yoel here due to the brunson fight and markes one and perhaps lingering on thinking bisping is elite and kennedy did that to him.

But everyone has valid points on both, Yoels pretty athletic and good output of strikes I prefer his reserving cardio style over kennedy's who seems to just give up an entire round just to perform great in next round.

After rewatching the tape I find kennedy was slower and less output in general would have been great to see nato fight go longer since he was out-striking kennedy in r1 till the big knockout.

I can see why many favor yoel his style should in theory destroy kennedy but kennedy I still feel is great at that one thing land some strikes and bombs and before you know it your on your back. Kennedy has said that is his plan of attack I think he will loose a round to recoup cardio in round 2 to secure r3 via grappling/take downs to leave that imprint in the judges minds here for a ud win.

But perhaps not so confident to lay the juice ill be live betting whole event.
 
Any particular reason you like Hasley so much? I am on Held and Richman as well, possibly Campos

i'd like to see odds on the campos fight, too

i've been a believer in halsey for a little while now.. super impressed by him. he did slow down a bit in the pacheco fight, but he's a young fighter, still improving

i don't see any reason he can't do to shlemenko what tito just did

i COULD hedge a unit off or so to have a super awesome price, but i might just let it be as is
 
Hey man,

I'm glad you asked.

I first set the website up because I have been making good money from betting on MMA for a long time now and I thought it'd be really cool to help people make some extra money...

Hope that makes sense mate!

12th man I appreciate your site as well as everyone else who posts their picks. I don't understand why anyone would speak negatively about anyone with a betting tips site (12thMan, EZFlyer, DezWalker, saminex). If you disagree with the bets, so be it. Nothing wrong with getting a different point of view to encourage or temper your bet. Sometimes I wish I could filter out the trash talk on these threads.
 
you have the logic of an infant

Hmm, I'm not sure you can be qualified to rate the capacity of someone's logic skills until you divide the tracking of your results in your sig by 50
 
Alvarez vs. Cowboy b/d (long)
Finally, in what should be (about) Eddie Alvarez's 8th year with Zuffa, the Philadelphia born brawler is here. I say 8th year, because Eddie tried out for yet wasn't selected to TUF II -- but shit, how'd you expect him to compete with the likes of Luke Cummo & Sammy Morgan bro? In fact, after Marcus Davis got injured, Eddie was flown out to Vegas and kept in a hotel here he was expected to be used as an alternate, but alas, it wasn't to be. Again, FFS, how could the producers turn down an opportunity to air the charismatic personality of one Jason Von Flue through our SPIKE TV ?! Anyhow, Eddie took the long route around the mountain -- or rather straight fucking through it, and after a decade of winning titles and dusting the worlds best in every organization not named UFC, the kid is at long last here.

In Alvarez you have a fighter who has fought 28 professional times losing only 3 of them -- a sneaky submission loss via kneebar to a clever Shinya Aoki and a loss in one of the best fights of all time against Michael Chandler -- both defeats avenged. His only other loss was seven years ago at WW to a much larger Nick Thompson. Furthermore, Alvarez hasn't been fighting tomato cans, his scalps include Shinya Aoki, Michael Chandler, Pat Curran, Roger Huerta, Josh Neer, Katsunori Kikuno, Tatsuya Kawajiri, and Joachim Hansen amongst others. Also noteworthy, Eddie's only been knocked out once in 28 fights - that to the far larger Thompson. No doubt, Eddie's ability to stay conscious has much to do with his granite chin, but mostly it is a result of his extraordinary head movement and sound overall defensive aptitude. His wrestling roots are apparent in his relatively moderately crouched, closed stance, and he amplifies his ability to minimize clean punches and/or be taken down by utilizing active footwork, combined with lightning quick reactions, tremendous stability, accurate clean counters, and dynamite in both hands adversaries are forced to respect.

A lot of fans this weekend will get there first glimpse of Alvarez and have the opportunity to see that they're still remains great fighters outside the UFC even today *GASP* Fortunately, I, like you (hopefully) have had the opportunity to watch him for years, dating back to his days in Bodog throughout the DREAM tournament, and finally BELLATOR. Anyone who has had the pleasure of watching Eddie fight has gotten to see a fighter with an exceptional skill set and a absolute love for his craft. Indeed, not only is Eddie a supremely gifted mixed martial artist, but the guy is an absolute warrior to the core. For Alvarez, it is just in his DNA as The City of Brotherly Love has long been a fighting city. From the fictional Rocky Balboa to the actual home of some of the most merciless badasses in boxing history including Jersey Joe Walcott, Sonny Liston, Bernard Hopkins, Joe Frazier, Tim Witherspoon and Meldrick Taylor amongst others. Coincidentally, like those HOF pugilists -- Alvarez himself is an exceptional purveyor of the sweet science -- possibly the best in the LW division today.

Eddie Alvarez has skillfully merged his boxing and wrestling yet instead of mirroring your prototypical wrestle boxer, Alvarez has become an absolutely masterful kickboxer. Indeed, Eddies training alongside GLORY kickboxing ace Tyrone Spong at the Blackzilians has obviously paid dividends as evinced by his ferocious fight ending HHK in his penultimate Bellator tilt at the expense of the mediocre Pitbull brother. Right now, Eddie is just firing on all cylinders, and if his tilt with Roger Huerta illustrated anything, it is that Eddie needs a nickname, and we would call him "The Mechanic" for the bodywork he put in -- the paint job came with the package. The gifs below absolutely demonstrate just how dangerous Eddie's striking has become as well as the diversity Cowboy is going to be dealing with.

bodyrh.gif

hhk.gif
Stylistically, Alvarez is just a bad matchup for Cowboy, and if octagon jitters do not freeze up the UFC debutante, then I believe he will most likely pick up a win in his first fight in the organization. That is to say, Donald has long been at his best when he could sit back and play the role of a sniper. To achieve this, Cowboy needs a willing dance partner who will let him lead the waltz. Fighters such as Martins, Noons, Siver, and Barboza. When Cowboy's adversary allows him to compete with composure and patience, it is the equivalent of finding a rattlesnake in the desert and poking it with a stick - you are in complete control until all the sudden you're not - just ask Edson Barboza what happens when you blink. (in case he forgot)
Conversely, look at the fighters who have fared well versus Donald - they are all aggressive fighters who stayed in his face and didn't let Cowboy have time to sit back and land those homerun strikes of his. Specifically fighters like Nate Diaz, who stayed right in Donald's face and never let him take a breath -- that broke him. Even less skilled strikers such as Jim Miller were able to have a lot of success early because he didn't give Cowboy time and space to operate. If we look at RDA, who was the last person to best Cowboy, it is easy to see how Alvarez can present some the exact same problems. Chiefly among them being pressure, pressure, pressure! Never did RDA allow Donald to dictate the pace of fight, he stayed right in Cowboys face throwing punches - predominantly the overhand right which was the counter to Donald's long rangy jab.

While Cowboy may have an advantage in the versatility department due to his Muay-Thai and kickboxing background, Alvarez makes up for any shortcoming in overall striking due to his athleticism and speed. Possessing exemplary athletic qualities, Alvarez is going to have a quickness, agility and explosiveness edge to go along with his pernicious punching power. What's more, Donald often eschews basic fundamental defensive technique as he leaves his chin bolt straight in the air like a flagpole in perfect position to get teed off on. Consequently, this is what almost got him knocked out by Melvin Guillard before Melvin Guillard remembered he was of course Melvin Guillard . However, Eddie Alvarez is not Jim Miller or Melvin Guillard, and if Cowboy fights like he always does (which I have no reason to doubt he will) then I believe this fight is going to be won with speed and clean punching, which assuredly goes in the favor of the Philadelphia native.

IMO, the pertinent advantages in this contest rest with Alvarez, who no doubt is gunning to make a splash in his Octagon, but to underestimate Cowboy would be crazy. One of the many flaws Eddie has in his game is getting over confident and reckless -- as the gif below illustrates, Eddie will often lead with an uppercut like Prince Naseem Hamed -- which is crazy unless you are a prime Roy Jones Jr. or of course -- Prince Naseem Hamed! The lead uppercut is slow, telegraphed and it exposes your head -- yet Alvarez continues to throw it.

[/SPOILER]
Additionally, in his fight with Kikuno, the Japanese Karate stylist was able to land myriad teeps to the solar plexus and several shin digging roundhouse kicks to Alvarez's liver I
 
Hmm, I'm not sure you can be qualified to rate the capacity of someone's logic skills until you divide the tracking of your results in your sig by 50

This guy is a Dolt and isn't to be taken seriously.
 
man, wanna do something on FOTN for poirier-mcgregor and/or cerrone-alvarez.. even w/mizugaki-cruz on card and zingano-nunes..

they're both just over +300..

so if you played both, it pays like even $ if one hits... thoughts on that idea? even money for one of those two fights to be FOTN?

Personally, I think you go allin on Cerrone-Alvarez for that one. All-else equal, they'll give it to Cerrone-Alvarez because they always give it to Cerrone and also Dana wants to justify the money he's spending on Alvarez so having him win FOTN on his first show will make him seem like a bigger deal.
 
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