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Higher variance = higher sample size before you can say with X degree on of certainty that it's within the margin of error, I think.
Guessing the +400 bettor has higher variance, but I'm not actually sure because I'm not sleeping enough and to lazy to think it through.
To me, variance would be similar since -400 bets have high swings as well on losses. In the very short term the favorite bettor would yield better results more often, but it should be the same long term.