My thoughts on the first 4 counter opinion appreciated.
Mazo is going to be better at kicking range and in the clinch, she will have some trouble at boxing range but the fight shouldnt stay at that distance for significant periods and Aldrich wont attempt to do enough when it is.Aldrich will probably attempt some takedowns but she is the lighter, weaker fighter with a light top game. She would rather strike than grapple and if the takedowns seem too difficult, I think Aldrich will just stop trying. If Mazo gets on top Aldrich wont be able to score enough to make up for it and will very likely lose the round.For Aldrich to win shes going to have to maintain boxing distance and be active enough to win a decision. Her chance of finishing are nanoscopic. Mazo the much better chance to finsh the fight but the slight favorite to win by decision. Mazo has a hgher ceiling. I cap Mazo no worse than -125 but could make a case for -150.
Obviously Ledet is going to dance around the cage, try to maintain distance and make his jab both a tool to keep distance but also to score ALL of his points. Hes a low power former HW with a strong chin, a ground game(by necessity)and limited offense. Very sad. Very sad to say it might be enough, fuck. I dont like Ledet, at all, dude is a tard with major personal issues but Camur is limited as well as undersized. At least Camurs young so he can improve, right? Yes and no. Yes he can improve but his youth also showed when he was talking about how he might be the guy to beat Jones. He doesnt even realize just how far apart they are. He probably thinks that hes better than he is and that could limit growth. Camur likely wont be able to cut off the cage, Ledet will be able to dance around him, avoid Camurs offense and score his baby points. I've seen a glimpse of Camur throwing a leg kick, forcing the clinch when standup wasnt going his way and look like he might attempt a takedown. If Camur follows Ledet around the cage hes not going to land the KO and he will lose a decision, if he strikes, clinches, strikes, attempts a takedown its his fight to lose. I cap Camur and Ledet at +125, wouldnt go for the ML on either but I like fgtd at +110.
People will be sweating ths fight. There is no way Haq wins 75%+. I know hes good, great even but folks act like hes the Yan of his division. Hes an athlete/technician first and a fighter second, hes not ferocious enough, he will instinctually chose the safe/correct next move instead of the ferocious. He will prob give away the first round and come on strong in the third but he wont be ferocious when he does it, he will be technical even if hes down 2 rounds. If Dober stays in his face and makes him move back, Haq will be limited by his technique and Dober will take the lead, Dober is a great striker himself with 13 UFC fights, you very likely cant name a time of the top of your head that Dober has been outstruck in his career. He got dropped by OAM but overall I would say he has a great chin. I dont see how anyone can be confident Haq finishes or wins a decision much more often.If someone gets dropped it would probably be Dober. The grappling can go either way, maybe Dober will attempts some takedowns, maybe Haq but this fight should be decided standing. I cap Haq at -150.
This fight should be spent on the ground through significant portions of the fight. Both guys will attempt a lot of submissions but both guys are proficient on the ground. Elliott is the better wrestler but Askarov likes being on his back, he will even pull guard. Elliott should be the fighter holding top position. Whos more likely to get the sub, Askarof on his back or Elliott on top? The public says Askaroff wins ITD around 40% of the time while Elliott wins ITD 15% of the time. Thats ridiculous. Askaroff is sub threat only in a fight where he will likely be on his back unless he can sweep to top position. Basic triangle/armbars set ups are very unlikely to work and Elliott will get a easy pass. Front chokes seem more likely. Though Elliott has 4 sub losses in his 23 fights, it's not exactly his sub defense that lead to these loses. He was facing multiple threats and was under fire against Fig and Nguyen, that not going to happen here, Benavidez and Fig have better guillotines than a lot of people, including Askarov. Askarov chances of finishing are close to Elliotts, maybe he has a slight advantage but not 40% to 15%. The decision clearly favors Elliott. I cap Elliott at -125 but I feel more comfortable capping him at +100. I also like fgtd at -120, I expect it to go to decision at least 60%, could be slightly higher.
A lot of the fights on ths card are close, not really any "safe" picks with playable odds.