2016 Profit: $876
2017 Profit: $6646
2018 Profit: $56385
2019 Profit: $63736
2020 Profit: $159683
This year has been extremely validating for me as a full-timer. There was a lot of uncertainty when covid hit, which also introduced a bunch of potential x-factors with gyms closing, mandatory quarantines, possible long term side effects etc. Overall though it didn't seem to have too much of an effect on fighters. It did however lead to a record number of cancellations, I had over 200k in bets cancelled this year. The break from March 14th to May 9th where we saw 5 events cancelled gave me time to step back and really improve my process which showed in my results. I was only up $5580 when we started up again in May, but was able to profit another $154103 in the following 8 months, raising my unit size from 800 to 1000 sometime around September.
This being my second year of in-depth tracking I have something to compare to. I'll break the rest down into categories.
Bet Types
I saw a huge improvement in my moneyline betting, nearly tripling last years ML ROI at 22.1%. I think we'll see a correlation when I get to odd ranges. Round props stand out too with an 87.7% ROI vs last years 15.6%, with 3x the amount bet on them this year. Totals, KO, and SUB props saw a decline, I actually closed in the negative on KOs and SUBs, though simple Fighter wins ITD props saw a 34.1% ROI. Club n subs and positional TKOs will be the death of me. Unders have always been a challenge for me, and that hasn't changed this year. I was happy to see a 27.1% ROI on u2.5s until I saw my -22.3% ROI on DNGTDs. Overs performed well as usual with a 15.34% ROI.
Odd Ranges
So last year every range was quite profitable EXCEPT -121 to -150 which had a big loss. This specific range seems to be a problem for most bettors and I made a point to stay conscious of it this year. It actually turned out to be my most bet range but I only managed a 7.5% ROI on it. -151 to -199 was my second most bet range and produced the largest profits, same as last year. I was very cautious with betting big favourites and went 32/32 for a 100% hit-rate on lines -300 and lower. -251 to -299 saw a huge reduction in bets, only $8300 wagered vs last years $23636 with smaller units. If we define big favourites as -251 or worse I made more betting big favourites this year than last year despite only wagering $34773 on them vs last years $64601. Looking at underdogs, overall my dog bets performed worse than last year at 22.1% ROI vs last years 35.64%. Narrowing it down +200 to +399 ranges did absurdly well with a 75% ROI
Weight Classes
Last year WW and WBW were the only weight classes I ended negative in. I stayed conscious of it and WW was actually my most bet weight class this year with a 25.1% ROI, WBW was similar with a 25.9% ROI. WFLW is where I sucked this year, my only negative weight class with -14.6%. FW was my most profitable by a wide margin with a 47.2% ROI, followed by MW at 31.7%
Just like last year, my livebet ROI (35.2%) was almost double my prebet ROI (19.5%), and accounted for approximately 30% of the years profit. I knew this would be the case coming into this year yet I still struggled to bet more than 1u live. That seems to be the theme of my year, I felt like I left a lot of money on the table by not going big enough on what I perceived to be big edges. Living off this I try to be conservative avoiding big swings but I need to find the balance. I'm hitting 160u+ every year so it would be foolish not to raise the stakes.
Hope you all made bank this year, it was a wild one. Going forward I won't be posting my bets, at the end of the day the more people winning on MMA the worse it is for us MMA bettors. The bet threads are getting 5k+ views every week and its seeming more and more like the MMA betting community consists of a large amount of tailers. I am always down to talk fights though!
