Bellator 163 - McGeary vs Davis - Connecticut

Davis at -174 now. Hopefully they get odds up on pinnacle soon, I'm hitting the fuck outta those.
 
The MM Analyst said:
Davis at -174 now. Hopefully they get odds up on pinnacle soon, I'm hitting the fuck outta those.
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you're actually able to use that -174? i've always wondered, lol. it's always the same as 5d but w/less juice at first, but never accessible for me.
 
If Awaad opens up as a dog I'll hit him over Bronnan. Like his advantage on the ground, Ward will slow, both guys have pop on the feet so I could see a ko from either. Awaad's got better fight iq, not that that says much.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
If Awaad opens up as a dog I'll hit him over Bronnan. Like his advantage on the ground, Ward will slow, both guys have pop on the feet so I could see a ko from either. Awaad's got better fight iq, not that that says much.
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Feeling confident he'll be the favorite but agree.
 
Joseph Budden said:
Feeling confident he'll be the favorite but agree.
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yeah probably wishful thinking on my part but hoping if he is favored then it won't be by much. I'd probably take him if I can get better than -150 or so, would be reluctant to play too much higher than that.
 
Gonna be great to see Sergei back in action! I hope he's in shape and motivated!
 
Sham5916910 said:
Theres levels and lets be honest liam has beaten no one near davis' level
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He hasn't faced anyone at that level in fairness, so it's an open question how he'd do against UFC top 10 competitors like Davis. Will be interesting to see. I still think there's value on McGeary at +180 but if I end up changing my mind at least I played the line movement correctly and will get a better price on Davis.
 
JimGunn said:
He hasn't faced anyone at that level in fairness, so it's an open question how he'd do against UFC top 10 competitors like Davis. Will be interesting to see. I still think there's value on McGeary at +180 but if I end up changing my mind at least I played the line movement correctly and will get a better price on Davis.
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I just dont think in modern day mma you can rely on pulling off subs from your back and thats the only way he wins this imo. Davis is tough as hell be shocked if he ko'd him. If he cant pull a sub out i see davis wrestle fucking him to a dec or even catching a sub. Davis loves that kimura and mcgearys guard can be passed pretty easily. Hea a one trick pony imo not a recipe for success against legit guys imo
 
Just to add davis struggles when he cant implement his wrestling see bader evans and aj fights. To some extent king mo fight too. This is a great stylistic fight for davis. Of course he needs to be wary from top but i think he can sub mcgeary.

Fuck: davis -280
 
EzFlyer said:
you're actually able to use that -174? i've always wondered, lol. it's always the same as 5d but w/less juice at first, but never accessible for me.
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Ahh, no, I only have money on Pinnacle, which doesn't have the odds yet. And fuck, it still doesn't have them and Davis is back to almost -300. I need to get on 5dimes or sportbet. Come on people, let's get some huge money coming in on McGeary.
 
Sham5916910 said:
I just dont think in modern day mma you can rely on pulling off subs from your back and thats the only way he wins this imo. Davis is tough as hell be shocked if he ko'd him. If he cant pull a sub out i see davis wrestle fucking him to a dec or even catching a sub. Davis loves that kimura and mcgearys guard can be passed pretty easily. Hea a one trick pony imo not a recipe for success against legit guys imo
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I think Davis by sub is the most likely outcome, with Davis by decision being a close second, and Davis by (T)KO a distant third.
 
The MM Analyst said:
Ahh, no, I only have money on Pinnacle, which doesn't have the odds yet. And fuck, it still doesn't have them and Davis is back to almost -300. I need to get on 5dimes or sportbet. Come on people, let's get some huge money coming in on McGeary.
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I balked at -180, greedily hoped it would continue to drop
 
http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/bellator-163-betting-odds/

Bellator-163-Odds.png
 
hrmmmm anderson +120? awad +100?

hrmmmm

no f'ing clue who talita nogueira is
 
I think a lot of these overs have pretty good value at or near + money. The girls will likely go over as Marloes Coenen usually wins by sub if she finishes and Nogueira is a BJJ world champion. Sergei Kharitonov hasn't fought in the U.S. in years and may take some time to get loose enough to KO his opponent. Derek Anderson is stepping up to welterweight this time, but can probably avoid getting KOed by Semtex who is not a huge 170 pounder himself. Especially if he wrestles Daley for a while it could go the distance. Saad Awad & Brennan Ward likewise will probably fight smart against each other as they are both skilled and dangerous. Hopefully not an early finish in this one either. I'm stuck with a bad price on Liam McGeary, so not sure what to do with that other than hope for the upset. So far I have:

Bellator 163 Risk $941.47
Liam McGeary (+185) vs Phil Davis $200.00 for $370.00
Saad Awad (-120) vs Brennan Ward $240.00 for $200.00
Saad Awad/Brennan Ward Over 1½ (+110) $100.00 for $110.00
Marloes Coenen/Talita Nogueira Over 1½ (-210) $105.00 for $50.00
Marloes Coenen/Talita Nogueira Over 1½ (-215) $107.50 for $50.00
Paul Daley/Derek Anderson Over 2½ (-120) $120.00 for $100.00
Sergei Kharitonov/Javy Ayala Over 1½ (+145) $68.97 for $100.00
 
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