Bellator 215 Mitrione vs Kharitonov

Bellator 215 Risk $937.83

Matt Mitrione (+104) vs Sergei Kharitonov ~$108.00 for ~$112.32
Matt Mitrione (+100) vs Sergei Kharitonov $125.00 for $125.00
Matt Mitrione/Sergei Kharitonov Under 1½ (-185) $185.00 for $100.00

Eduardo Dantas (-345) vs Toby Misech $344.83 for $100.00

John Douma (+375) vs Mike Kimbel $100.00 for $375.00

Austin Vanderford/Cody Jones Under 1½ (+135) $75.00 for $101.25
 
I think Vanderford is going to finish his opponent. While his opponent seems like a solid pro fighter Vanderford has a more impressive resume and a clear advantage in athleticism and finishing ability.

I couldn't find too much on Storley, but Pascu had nothing for Ruth, who I figure is a very similar fighter to Storley. I think Storley has a higher chancer of finishing this fight than Ruth did, but the most likely outcome is a Storley decision, considering the fact that Pascu has never been finished by strikes before and I don't see him getting submitted here by Storley.

I think Kharitonov has a more impressive resume, and is a more technical striker with just as much power as Mitrione. As with most HW fights, I think this fight really can go either way, but I see Kharitonov being able to withstand and even possibly evade more damage whilst also being able to get the better of the exchanges most times. Thus I predict he wins this fight 60-70% of the time and by knockout/TKO from strikes or strikes that lead to a submission. I think this fight goes to the judges only if both goes get so tired that they cannot finish each other, but it's hard to imagine that playing out without a finish considering how much power both guys have in their strikes.

The lines I like on this card are so far:

Vanderford wins inside the distance -225
Douma wins by 3 round decision +800
Douma wins inside the distance +465
Storley wins by 3 round decision -165
Kharitonov -110
 
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Put slightly over 1 unit on Douma/Kimbel under 1.5 rounds at -140.

Don't like the Douma bet, though; his defense against Mark Trader was non-existent. Zero movement of any kind, couldn't block punches, flawed stance, and was getting hit at will. His wrestling isn't that potent, either; simply clinched and was easily stymied and pushed off by Trader.

Kimbel being this big of a favorite actually makes sense.
 
0.5u on Misech (+400), Douma (+300) and Pascu (+500)
1.5u on Mitrione ML +110
 
I've got 1.5u on Douma, and 0.5u on Misech and Pascu. Too embarrassed to reveal how terrible odds I got :oops:
 
Ooooh douma! Making up for a bad break in cbb this evening

5+ units
 
hahah Kimble you idiot! hope everyone made a little cheeky bet there
 
I didn't pull the trigger but congrats Douma backers
 
Really thought that slam was going to knock him out.
 
Still can't believe how many pro guys with years experience don't use basic sub defence lol
 
BaruchSpinoza said:
Nerves and adrenaline, maybe? He must "know" what to do...
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I do wonder how much is being in the moment and how much is guys rushing into a pro career thinking they'll be champ overnight with inadequate training. So many examples even at high levels. Sarah McMann getting tapped by Viera was hilarious with Viera using every single move McMann would normally on top to get an arm triangle but McMann just did nothing defensively like she'd never seen any of it before.
 
Jordan3399 said:
I do wonder how much is being in the moment and how much is guys rushing into a pro career thinking they'll be champ overnight with inadequate training. So many examples even at high levels. Sarah McMann getting tapped by Viera was hilarious with Viera using every single move McMann would normally on top to get an arm triangle but McMann just did nothing defensively like she'd never seen any of it before.
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Haha, yeah, it makes you think it's more of a panic thing than actually lacking the techniques. Maybe what's second nature in the gym disappears in the heat of it all.
 
Kimble is a baby in MMA. He’ll probably improve, and honestly, we’ll probably get a good price on him next time. His wrestling was better than expected
 
Oblivian said:
Kimble is a baby in MMA. He’ll probably improve, and honestly, we’ll probably get a good price on him next time. His wrestling was better than expected
Click to expand...

Yeah, Kimbel looked strong, displayed good technique battling for underhooks in the clinch, and then hit a nice hip toss. 2 and half minutes into the fight, Douma was looking absoutely dead to rights. Basic sub defense is a relatively easy skill to learn too, so he might well become a good fighter in the future.
 
Dantas just completely controlling the range posting out his left hand while Misech just lets the fight slip away.
 
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