Bellator 234 Kharitonov vs Vassell

lefontes said:
Vandeeford much small as i said.
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I'm on board too.

Haven't seen Grachik in 2.5 years and he's young and has been training the whole time. Should see some improvement. Vanderford looks like he should be able to take Grachik down but Grachik has some good subs and sweeps off his back. Without the big strength advantage Vanderford had at 170, he becomes less effective although not sure to what extent. Still, Vanderford up a weightclass against a middleweight without any glaring holes shouldn't be 80%+ implied odds.

Also, first fight for Vanderford outside of the US. Came out a to Israel a week early, but maybe the travel throws him off a bit.
 
turbozed said:
I'm on board too.

Haven't seen Grachik in 2.5 years and he's young and has been training the whole time. Should see some improvement. Vanderford looks like he should be able to take Grachik down but Grachik has some good subs and sweeps off his back. Without the big strength advantage Vanderford had at 170, he becomes less effective although not sure to what extent. Still, Vanderford up a weightclass against a middleweight without any glaring holes shouldn't be 80%+ implied odds.

Also, first fight for Vanderford outside of the US. Came out a to Israel a week early, but maybe the travel throws him off a bit.
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Agree!

All value on Grachik in this fight.
 
I'm surprised that money has been coming in on Olga Rubin. I know that she's the home country fighter, but she's damn near -300 now. This is a fighter whose best win is Cindy Dandois mind you and who is also coming off a round one body kick stoppage loss by champion Julia Budd. Sinead Kavanagh is nothing special, but she's a game fighter who has decent boxing & aggression and who was able to go to a split & majority decision respectively with title challenger Arlene Blencowe and Leslie Smith, both better strikers who would beat Rubin if they fought in my opinion. Make of that WMMA math what you will. Her loss to Janay Harding was by a cut early in round 1 as well. I think it's crazy for Rubin to be such a big favorite even in Israel. If Kavanagh keeps moving forward with boxing and doesn't get caught with anything flashy or tied up she has a real chance in this bout. I bet her at +205 thinking it was a good price but +240 or better now is really unjustified and worthy of a play in my opinion.
 
Any Aussies seen odds for this anywhere? Unibet or Sportsbet don't have
 
46 year old Haim Gozali -300 against some 16-3 Russian

<{hughesimpress}>
 
rille31 said:
46 year old Haim Gozali -300 against some 16-3 Russian

<{hughesimpress}>
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I bet against him on a Bellator Israel card in the past, only for the odds to massively flip shortly after (he was the dog, then the big fav) and Haim won a blatantly worked fight
<{danayeah}>
 
Xuh said:
I bet against him on a Bellator Israel card in the past, only for the odds to massively flip shortly after (he was the dog, then the big fav) and Haim won a blatantly worked fight
<{danayeah}>
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Which fight was this?
 
Xuh said:


dude made out like he'd been shot dead by a not yet fully sinched triangle
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The triangle itself is fairly tight, but yeah, you usually can't get enough pressure when they're standing on their feet without grabbing their legs. On the flipside, I would want to see the whole fight and if he had been in the triangle for some moments prior, as he looks like he is hyper-ventilating and panicking.

The odds history for the fight aren't exactly as how you described, either. https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/bellator-188-lahat-vs-labiano-1370

Gozali opens as a +165 dog, yes, but then ends in the +115 to -170 range, with the average being around -140. That's major line movement, yes, but not exactly unprecedented/unusual, especially for soft Bellator openers, and -140 is nowhere near what we typically call a "big fav".

So while there is a possibility of the fight being fixed, it's far from a smoking gun.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
The triangle itself is fairly tight, but yeah, you usually can't get enough pressure when they're standing on their feet without grabbing their legs. On the flipside, I would want to see the whole fight and if he had been in the triangle for some moments prior, as he looks like he is hyper-ventilating and panicking.

The odds history for the fight aren't exactly as how you described, either. https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/bellator-188-lahat-vs-labiano-1370

Gozali opens as a +165 dog, yes, but then ends in the +115 to -170 range, with the average being around -140. That's major line movement, yes, but not exactly unprecedented/unusual, especially for soft Bellator openers, and -140 is nowhere near what we typically call a "big fav".

So while there is a possibility of the fight being fixed, it's far from a smoking gun.
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It was more the way the lines flipped suddenly just before the fight. Still, it did create a nice freerolling opportunity for us.
 
Bellator 234 Risk $400.00

Linton Vassell (+195) vs Sergei Kharitonov $200.00 for $390.00

Sinead Kavanagh (+250) vs Olga Rubin $200.00 for $500.00
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
The triangle itself is fairly tight, but yeah, you usually can't get enough pressure when they're standing on their feet without grabbing their legs. On the flipside, I would want to see the whole fight and if he had been in the triangle for some moments prior, as he looks like he is hyper-ventilating and panicking.

The odds history for the fight aren't exactly as how you described, either. https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/bellator-188-lahat-vs-labiano-1370

Gozali opens as a +165 dog, yes, but then ends in the +115 to -170 range, with the average being around -140. That's major line movement, yes, but not exactly unprecedented/unusual, especially for soft Bellator openers, and -140 is nowhere near what we typically call a "big fav".

So while there is a possibility of the fight being fixed, it's far from a smoking gun.
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Cause guys regularly flip lines last minute betting 46 year old guard players in Bellator.

And we see reactions like that to triangles all the time.

Not to mention from tonight:
 
Jordan3399 said:
Cause guys regularly flip lines last minute betting 46 year old guard players in Bellator.

And we see reactions like that to triangles all the time.

Not to mention from tonight:
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Yeah Jordie, the people crying on Twitter with zero proof that Kimbo-Ken Shamrock, Sonnen-Ortiz, and Fedor-Sonnen were all fixed are totally believable, too!

Why, they're as legitimate as your 200u+ in live-bet winnings this year!

And I'm sure that Twitter account is completely impartial, too. Just going by what happened in a fight none of us have seen yet. I mean't, it's not like he has openly written about his burning hatred for Haim Gozali as a person, calling him a "racist, fascist, disgusting human being".



Oh, wait...

Anywho, on a more meaningful note, I put 2u on Sinead Kavanagh at +235 against my homegirl Olga Rubin. I think my analysis of the fight is pretty funny, but it's also horribly "racist" and almost certainly right-wing and thus "fascist". And I wouldn't want to offend either Jordie or his new favorite source Kobi!
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Yeah Jordie, the people crying on Twitter with zero proof that Kimbo-Ken Shamrock, Sonnen-Ortiz, and Fedor-Sonnen were all fixed are totally believable, too!

Why, they're as legitimate as your 200u+ in live-bet winnings this year!

And I'm sure that Twitter account is completely impartial, too. Just going by what happened in a fight none of us have seen yet. I mean't, it's not like he has openly written about his burning hatred for Haim Gozali as a person, calling him a "racist, fascist, disgusting human being".



Oh, wait...

Anywho, on a more meaningful note, I put 2u on Sinead Kavanagh at +235 against my homegirl Olga Rubin. I think my analysis of the fight is pretty funny, but it's also horribly "racist" and almost certainly right-wing and thus "fascist". And I wouldn't want to offend either Jordie or his new favorite source Kobi!
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Cause clearly sharing a tweet by someone means you fully aline with everything they ever post or support smh.

You really are on a roll today Paul.

I knew you would go off on some weird personal tangent but trying to portray me as some sort of SJW type is exceptionally bizarre even for you.
 
Results:

Kavanagh RD2 KO
Vanderford DEC
Outlaw DEC
Vassell RD1 KO
 
On a more relevant note, I looked up spoilers. Click at your own risk.

Kavanagh wins by 2nd round TKO against Rubin. Nice +4.7u cash for me, although there were reasons to be cautious on this one.
Vanderford wins a close unanimous decision, with all 3 judges having it for him 29-28. Grachik won round 1 and Vanderford won the next two, with Vanderford's cardio likely being the difference-maker. I think Grachik bettors made a good value play here, even if he came up short.
Outlaw wins a decision, taking all 3 rounds against Huerta. No clue why anyone bet Huerta here.
Vassell won by 2nd round TKO. Really curious to see how this one played out. I initially wanted to bet Vassell, but the more I analyzed it, the more red flags I found for him. I ended up no-betting the contest. Regardless, congrats Vassell bettors.

Edit- Sadistics beat me to it, albeit with less commentary. :)
 
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