Bellator 256: Bader vs Machida 2

[svmr_db]

Friday, April 9th
Prelims @ 6PM EST
Main Card @ 9PM EST

https://www.sherdog.com/events/matches/Bellator-256-Bader-vs-Machida-2-88626

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/76829-bellator-mma

http://www.bellator.com/events/h0vhdk/bellator-256-bader-vs-machida-2

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/bellator-256-bader-vs-machida-2-2078

 

[lyndon955]

I can't believe Will Smith is fighting on this card and he's not even on the main card

Not seeing much value anywhere, but a lot of the fighters I'm not particularly familiar with.

Who is Diana Avsaragova and how bad is her opponent that she's - 1000 to beat her?

 

[Stat_Collector]

I can't believe Will Smith is fighting on this card and he's not even on the main card

Not seeing much value anywhere, but a lot of the fighters I'm not particularly familiar with.

Who is Diana Avsaragova and how bad is her opponent that she's - 1000 to beat her?

her opponent has a 40% win rate in combine amateur and pro. Diana is smooth and wellrounded based on what ive seen. And a good size advantage as a bonus.

 

[Stat_Collector]

If you get these four matches correctly, you should win the pot. The rest are mismatches.

Adam Borics
Jeremy Kennedy

Izzy William(combine record 12-6 ama and pro)
Nainoa Dung

Bader
Machida

Vanessa Porto
Liz Carmouche

 

[Spath]

Machida has lost his last two via split dec against tough opponents in Mousasi and Phil Davis. Close fights. Then he finished Sonnen before those.

Bader hasn’t won a fight since january 2019 (killed Fedor back then.. but Fedor was already dead ). Since then he’s had a no contest with 50 year old Kongo (eye poke) and got KOd by Nemkov.

Bader is the clear favorite against the aging Machida, that’s not a surprise to anyonee. Machida is still dangerous, though, and I don’t think anyone just walks in there and crushes him. Machida via KO/TKO/DQ was something like +600 and it’s a five rounder. That’d be a nice surprise.

War Machida! Kick him in the diiiick!

 

[Wiktoruspro]

If you get these four matches correctly, you should win the pot. The rest are mismatches.

Adam Borics
Jeremy Kennedy

Izzy William(combine record 12-6 ama and pro)
Nainoa Dung

Bader
Machida

Vanessa Porto
Liz Carmouche

I bet Jeremy because Borics tdd sucks

 

[Stat_Collector]

I bet Jeremy because Borics tdd sucks

And Dung wins with more kick boxing experience .

 

[sonhow]

Kennedy vs Borics one of those fights were the winner will look like a sure thing in hindsight. Either Kennedy via takedowns or Borics will have too much on the feet for him. Win will likely be very decisive one but truly a 50/50 fight on paper.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I got Porto over Liz. Porto has better boxing and submission threats , slightly bigger in conditioning, think she wins it.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Kennedy vs Borics one of those fights were the winner will look like a sure thing in hindsight. Either Kennedy via takedowns or Borics will have too much on the feet for him. Win will likely be very decisive one but truly a 50/50 fight on paper.

Im leaning more towards adam, Jeremy is missing the key ingredient to beating adam, and that is submission offense, his only method to win is via ground control decision. While I do believe Adam can beat him via significant strike decision or by a knockout , as Jeremy has been starched three times in his career already, his chin may not hold up.

 

[sonhow]

Im leaning more towards adam, Jeremy is missing the key ingredient to beating adam, and that is submission offense, his only method to win is via ground control decision. While I do believe Adam can beat him via significant strike decision or by a knockout , as Jeremy has been starched three times in his career already, his chin may not hold up.

I feel your point but to me Jeremy might just frustrate him enough with spamming takedowns and making Adam gun shy. And Adam has been getting his riddum late in his last few fights.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I feel your point but to me Jeremy might just frustrate him enough with spamming takedowns and making Adam gun shy. And Adam has been getting his riddum late in his last few fights.

I'm gonna watch more footage and see how many times he gets taken down you could be right.

 

[Sono07]

Ha because of his age I was just wondering if Lyoto had any of that Glover magic. Maybe I guess they have been long time training partners.

Any opinions about Bader/ Machida fight doesn't go the distance at -190? Both are fairly old and it is a 5 round fight.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I should correct myself Jeremy has been starched twice , I thought Daniel starched him, but it was a submission. I do think Adam can be beaten or have his back taken and subbed. But the threat of calf kicks and ko is there too. This fight is very split to me. It's a get broke quick type of fight.

 

[StewDogg11]

I’m on Machida. He’s obviously old but he’s already starched Bader who is no spring chicken himself and was knocked out in his last fight. I also don’t like it when older fighters keep alternating between weight classes. That weight cut can be devastating sometimes. I’m not outright picking him but I’ll take Machida at +240.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Ha because of his age I was just wondering if Lyoto had any of that Glover magic. Maybe I guess they have been long time training partners.

Any opinions about Bader/ Machida fight doesn't go the distance at -190? Both are fairly old and it is a 5 round fight.

I think it does go to decision. Lyoto is the value bet here. His last two losses were split losses, so that means 1 judge gave him the nod. I think this goes to a split.the question comes down to who is judging this fight ? And what are their history when it comes to grading ground control time vs significant strikes . Gonna check when I get home the judges for this main event.

 

[Sono07]

I think it does go to decision. Lyoto is the value bet here. His last two losses were split losses, so that means 1 judge gave him the nod. I think this goes to a split.the question comes down to who is judging this fight ? And what are their history when it comes to grading ground control time vs significant strikes . Gonna check when I get home the judges for this main event.

I might just have to pass. I know Bader has the wrestling but his cardio looked like crap in his last fight at 205. Guess I was counting on someone wilting before the end of the 5th.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I might just have to pass. I know Bader has the wrestling but his cardio looked like crap in his last fight at 205. Guess I was counting on someone wilting before the end of the 5th.

Didn't notice that detail, possible then.

I never done method betting, I only pick who wins or losses so I don't put much emphasis on that.

 

[Sono07]

Didn't notice that detail, possible then.

I never done method betting, I only pick who wins or losses so I don't put much emphasis on that.

I usually mainly play match lines. Some very useful props though. I like the -3 1/2 points handicap, if you think a fighter will dominate it can get you a better price on a big favorite.

NSC/ No scorecard lines are probably my favorites too. Have a tough fighter you think could get a finish but are worried about losing a decision? The no scorecard bet will give you your money back if the fight goes to decision, great for parlay legs as they have a better chance to cancel instead of burning your parlay. Mike Perry NSC at -110 looks good to me I could see Drod getting a decision but don't think he will finish Perry. I thought Marquez would be a good NSC bet but you and Invictis convinced me Alvey's boxing really isn't that bad, he could even finish here.

Those are the main prop bets I play I don't really mess with KO/ sub props myself. I do also like round over props or fight starts r2 props as parlay legs. They can be a little high priced, but most fights can go past r1.

Going off memory and I think it had to do with Bader returning to 205 from HW. Maybe his weight cut is better this time but his conditioning looked poor last time even before the KO. I think he landed one good TD in r1 and looked totally gassed even before he ate that big head kick.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I usually mainly play match lines. Some very useful props though. I like the -3 1/2 points handicap, if you think a fighter will dominate it can get you a better price on a big favorite.

NSC/ No scorecard lines are probably my favorites too. Have a tough fighter you think could get a finish but are worried about losing a decision? The no scorecard bet will give you your money back if the fight goes to decision, great for parlay legs as they have a better chance to cancel instead of burning your parlay. Mike Perry NSC at -110 looks good to me I could see Drod getting a decision but don't think he will finish Perry. I thought Marquez would be a good NSC bet but you and Invictis convinced me Alvey's boxing really isn't that bad, he could even finish here.

Those are the main prop bets I play I don't really mess with KO/ sub props myself. I do also like round over props or fight starts r2 props as parlay legs. They can be a little high priced, but most fights can go past r1.

Going off memory and I think it had to do with Bader returning to 205 from HW. Maybe his weight cut is better this time but his conditioning looked poor last time even before the KO. I think he landed one good TD in r1 and looked totally gassed even before he ate that big head kick.

I'm definitely going to start doing that so many fights here are so uneven it's almost obvious how they will finish.

I think Ryan has PTSD from last time that he is going to avoid lunging at Lyoto the same way he did last time. He'll probably do what Phil Davis did, but the fact that it's a five round fight favors Lyoto. I can see Lyoto blasting knees through out the fight to Bader's body and Tiring him out to a finish. His side kick too will sap his cardio. If Ryan comes in looking tired you can bet the fight will get finished by the 4-5th rounds.

The other scenario is Lyoto at 42 having less chin resistance and getting stopped in round 1 and looking like an old man. But I havent seen an indicator of that yet.