Would've bet Ugas at decent +money not so sure now.
Have Clev +200 for this weekend, understand the fight's in Germany where Cleverly could get robbed and Braehmer never been stopped but I still see value on Clev at around 2-1. This is a close fight and I'm willing to take a chance at the scores not going my way at current prices.
Braehmer is old and Cleverly is a very active fighter volume wise, he's a much better fighter down at 175, he's been off for about a year but that's probably a good thing considering the last fight was a war with Fonfara where he acquitted himself very well despite losing the Dec. Braehmer was supposed to fight Clev years ago but pulled out at the last min as he did against Shumenov. Not saying he ducked out but he's known to be kind of a headcase in general so it wouldn't surprise me if that was the case. Both times he was supposed to leave Germany to fight which he never does which adds credence to the fact that he really wasn't sick/injured before those fights like he claimed.
I just think this fight is much closer than the odds indicate, even with a decent chance of a bad Dec. Cleverly's been in there with the better comp despite being 8 years younger, I like the style match up for him, etc. Had to bet him here, definitely not laying the juice on Braehmer here, that's for sure. I'm happy with 1u on Clev maybe up it to 1.5u, I know it's risky but think taking the gamble is worth it at the current price. Draw bet worth a sprinkle too, imo have a small flier on that at 20-1.