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Interesting. I’m rooting for Esparza, but can’t see how she beats Waterson.
Waterson’s striking looked incredible in her fight with Kowalkievicz, especially her kicks. People seem to forget that because she was outclassed by Jedrzejczyk in her most recent outing, but that was because she ran into a superior striker. In this fight, she has a clear advantage standing.
Even though Esparza has improved her striking, all she really has is a straight right hand and a right low kick. Her fight plan is still rooted in taking her opponents down and working from the top. Most of Esparza’s best takedowns come from a double leg from punching distance. In the clinch she has been overpowered and Waterson would probably take her down with that head-and-arm throw that she loves so much.
Waterson’s kicks will keep Esparza at a distance where she’ll be too far out to shoot a good takedown (unless she catches a leg) and Waterson would shrug off the attempts from distance. Even if she does take her down, Waterson is good enough off of her back to stay out of danger and find a way back to her feet. Esparza will have to hope for a ref that doesn’t stand them up quickly when there is a lull in the action because she won’t get much done in Waterson’s guard.
I would love for Esparza to prove me wrong, but Waterson via decision.
*edit*
I hope you’re staying healthy as well.
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