DWTCS Sep 14 2021
Polastri vs Jasdavicious
It’s perplexing that Jas lacks striking output when many of the difficult habits of a good striker are already present. She has decent timing, patience, quick feet, attempts to find angles, moves backwards and forwards instead of leaning, keeps her head and high hands actively defending and feints are built into her natural fighting rhythm. She just doesn’t pull the trigger nearly enough and I feel like she’s likely overthinking in the moment of what to actually do with the reads she’s building, offensively. Her defense though is smooth and natural and that’s a much trickier thing to develop in a fighter, so I feel like expecting some offensive growth from fight to fight isn’t farfetched.
Polastri is a nuts and bolts sprawl and brawler, not something you see too often at her typical 115 due to the speed most 115’ers have and the usual lack of stopping power. She plods into range, looks to use her natural power to throw hooks and has a quick sprawl in her pocket with heavy hips, good balance and pathological aggression to dissuade takedowns. Her defense is an absolute mess though. Her head is fixed, hands are either low or reaching to poorly parry and she lacks the twitch or footwork to hop or lean out of the way cleanly.
Unless Jas has learned how to actually throw her jab instead of just feint it, this fight is gonna be contested in the clinch. Jas looks for it very readily and Polastri is going to plod right into it and her aggression will basically had Jas the opportunity to get inside. I foresee Jas being too technical and too physical in this spot. While Polastri does have a good sprawl and strong hips, I’d be surprised if this extended to her topside grappling. Jas has a plethora of takedowns from the clinch, can likely get to the back with ease and even if Polastri manages to keep her squared up, the height advantage is devastating in the clinch. Ultimately I think Polastri really lacks the footwork or physicality to take advantage of Jas’s lack of offense given the clinch disparity and I feel like her only real path her is a knockout shot, which isn’t impossible but unlikely in her first fight at 125 vs a very defensively aware fighter. Whereas Jas could conceivably pick her apart in space but will likely just beat her up in clinch with the occasional takedown. The pick is Jasdavicious.
Loosa vs Maddalena/Duraev vs Bittencourt
Loosa hasn’t fought in 2.5 years and Duraev hasn’t in 3. I don’t personally feel comfortable making reads on fighters with that kind of resume gap. Fighters just change too much in that amount of time.
Potter vs Brzeski
Tale of two fighters here, Potter is a natural athlete and very fluid striker that lacks discipline and Brzeski is very rote and unnatural in his offense but more sound in moments. I say in moments because he can absolutely be knocked off his game. While he leads with a hoppy stance, the semblance of a jab and a functional low kick, this cracks when drawn into a firefight and the arm punches come out. Whereas Potter is who he is from start to finish, a flowing, diverse mess of attacks. He switches stances lazily, crosses his feet on occasion and mostly doesn’t sit down on his strikes but his dexterity, creativity and instinct create an exciting fighter that can string combos together at all distances from head to legs.
They do have two things in common though, the first thing being their lack of defense, specifically when striking. Even while Brz is keeping it tighter, circling well, staying in balance, his head is really straight and his doesn’t cover with the opposing hand or shoulder, inviting the countershot. This becomes significantly worse when his fundamentals fade and he just drops his hands entirely. Without any natural speed or flow to his game, his stiff head is just there to be thumped. Potter is even worse though and it’s due purely to defensive laziness. He just doesn’t care to involve any real defense in his game. He’s wide open to counters most of the time. I think this is really fixable though because he has the twitch, eyes and movement to get out of the way, if he’d just keep his hands up or roll his shoulders it would improve his defense quickly.
The other thing they have in common is neither is a real heavyweight. Potter is closer to a LHW but either one could likely make 205 and I don’t see either doing well as HW’s in the UFC. Neither person carries the kind of firepower you need to succeed here and while Potter is a good athlete for 205, at 265 he’s just not going to hit hard enough for how often I project him getting hit. Brz has even less of a shot because he doesn’t hit that hard and he doesn’t have big upside anywhere to balance out against how hittable he is.
This fight could just come down to who gets hit clean and hard first. Both fighters are gonna walk into it and both have been finished by strikes before, though Brz showed an incredible chin in his last fight. For me at nearly +350 I have to go with the value. Potter can fight for all 15 minutes, is a significantly more effortless fighter and isn’t going to be at much of a size disadvantage compared to the speed advantage I think he’ll have. What I’m most interested in is if Brz will grapple. While I didn’t see him go for takedowns on tape, some of his defensive grappling technique leads me to believe he has a decent grappling background and Potter absolutely can be taken down. Even then, I can’t take a fighter as hittable at over -300 odds. Potter is the pick.
Miller vs Lewis
This fight is a real shame. I think Lewis actually has solid potential, as much as a bricked up 5’4 bantamweight can at least. His striking is so fluid and comes from an incredible amount of angles. He clearly has a karate background with the way he explodes and darts but he’s transitioned it well having a relatively conventional though wide stance and not having as bad of defense as traditional martial arts converts tend to. He does leap into shots and can be flummoxed if pressed but outside of that he’s very powerful, has a hair trigger on all of his techniques and floats laterally very cleanly before sitting down into his attack.
That said he’s almost definitely getting washed here. Mo is also a monster athlete with ridiculous speed and some of the best wrestling I’ve seen at the weight class. I’m really not a fan of guys shooting in 2021. Not with how far standard takedown defense has come and the drawbacks if you’re stuffed. This guy isn’t getting stuffed though, at least not by Lewis. He chains too quickly, scrambles like he’s been wrestling all his life and can keep his foot on the pedal all the way through. I Love the way he incorporates his rides vs hunting for subs or getting out of position for strikes. He’s also weaponized the slam in a way I haven’t seen in a long time and can hit it over and over in all directions.
Potentially Lewis could get a KO here or snatch a sub, he’s a trained grappler and has excellent timing and technique on his explosive strikes. The reason I don’t think it’s happening though is how defensively aware Mo is. He stays firmly on the outside lurking to shoot. He’s a wrestling predator waiting for the moment his opponent gets heavy and blasts in lightning fast. This is especially bad for a guy like Lewis that really sinks down into his stance with every shot.
I see Mo getting in at some point, likely on a single and then either getting it down from there or chaining into the clinch. He’s just too fast and Lewis’s stance and footwork is too open for the takedown here. I really do hope I see him against a less quality opponent though as I really think Lewis has some potential.
Nasrudinov vs Almeida
There’s nothing I saw watching Nas that made me understand him being a big favorite here. I get he’s undefeated with a Russian name, but this guy is just really not that talented. He hangs at range and is decently measured from probing distance but his striking is so looping and predictable. His wrestling isn’t any more impressive. He dives singles and only sets it up with an overhand, not even a slick overhand, just an ugly lunging overhand. Outside of his distance management, his defense is really weak. He keeps his hands low, doesn’t move his head much and doesn’t have tight footwork. I do like his takedown defense, he’s got heavy, powerful hips and digs underhooks quickly but outside of that, I really don’t see what’s special about this guy. All of this is compounded by him being a middleweight sized and just not cutting weight. Not even a particularly athletic middleweight either. He’s got 3 rounds of cardio but he isn’t explosive, quick, incredibly strong or anything that I think will allow him to excel at LHW in the UFC.
On the other side of the card we have a real deal UFC LHW. Almeida is fucking huge, looks like he cuts a ton of weight and is very quick and powerful. There’s not a ton of footage out there due to the promotion he fights with and none of his fights going past the first round. What I can say is he’s gonna be putting Nas on the backfoot quick and I expect Nas to be the one wrestling here early. Almeida throws very quick, powerful kicks and has KO power in his hands plus a massive reach advantage. There’s no world I don’t see him shitkicking Nas on the feet, for at least the first round. Though I don’t think we’ll see that anyways.
Almeida wants to grapple but doesn’t have the takedown ability to take Nas to the floor and Nas isn’t gonna wanna stand with Almeida. I imagine he gets Almeida down by the virtue of Almeida wanting to grapple and inviting the work. That’s where it’s interesting to me though. Almeida is significantly bigger and with how garbage I think Nas’s entrances are, I could see Almeida stuffing takedowns and keeping it standing where I think he’ll have a decided advantage early. That said if it does go to the ground, we have a real wrestler vs BJJ battle on our hands. I almost always lean wrestler in those circumstance but again, I don’t think Nas is particularly talented and he was very nearly swept by a grappler levels below Almeida. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Almeida subbed him at any point or sweeped to GnP. You also can’t be shocked in these spots if the wrestler just rides out top position while the bottom sub hunts.
Ultimately though the only path I see for Nas here is Almeida gassing, which could happen. Nas has shown the ability to go 3 and Almeida basically never leaves the first round and is brolic as hell. It wouldn’t shock me to see Nas survive grappling early in dominant position and then take over as Almeida gasses. I’m not betting on it though, I’ll take the more physically gifted fighter with the massive BJJ upside here at plus money. Almeida is the play.
My bets -All 1U-
Mo + Jas @ +112
Potter @ +342
Almeida @ +162