DWCS Contender Series Week 5, Tuesday, August 23

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DabanggData

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From the prediction video:
Jesus Santos Aguilar +223 only has a "64 inch reach, that would mean he's got a 6 inch reach disadvantage here along with a 3 inch height disadvantage"




I think all five week 5 betting favorites will win, made parlay for +435

Polling winners on Tapology are 14-5 so far this season (32-17 in 2021)
(Note that Erisson Ferreira is losing the Tapology poll this week but favored in betting)




 
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Denise Gomes was losing her last fight (short notice) decisively until her (12-9) opponent gassed. Had her back taken twice, consistently out-struck. Rayanne Amanda is a IBJJF black belt world champion. Striking should be competitive. Both look a bit small for the weight class (115). I'm on Rayanne pretty heavy (+200).

Edit: I'm always picking the more credentialed fighter on this show, and they keep getting their asses kicked.
 
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B.Goetz said:
Denise Gomes was losing her last fight (short notice) decisively until her (12-9) opponent gassed. Had her back taken twice, consistently out-struck. Rayanne Amanda is a IBJJF black belt world champion. Striking should be competitive. Both look a bit small for the weight class (115). I'm on Rayanne pretty heavy (+200).

Edit: I'm always picking the more credentialed fighter on this show, and they keep getting their asses kicked.
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Dudieva is a bit of a misleading 12-9, of her 9 losses 2 were UFC champions (Andrade and Pena), 3 fought in the UFC (Kianzad, Borella and Reneau) and 2 were Invicta champions (Porto and Rodriguez).

Rayanne lost to 8-7-1 Edna Oliveira 2 years ago too.
 
Have some leans but waiting for weigh-in pictures/ videos. The more physical guys have usually been winning.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Dudieva is a bit of a misleading 12-9, of her 9 losses 2 were UFC champions (Andrade and Pena), 3 fought in the UFC (Kianzad, Borella and Reneau) and 2 were Invicta champions (Porto and Rodriguez).

Rayanne lost to 8-7-1 Edna Oliveira 2 years ago too.
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True, but that was at flyweight. Rayanne is a smallish strawweight. Point taken about Dudieva, though.
 
B.Goetz said:
Denise Gomes was losing her last fight (short notice) decisively until her (12-9) opponent gassed. Had her back taken twice, consistently out-struck. Rayanne Amanda is a IBJJF black belt world champion. Striking should be competitive. Both look a bit small for the weight class (115). I'm on Rayanne pretty heavy (+200).

Edit: I'm always picking the more credentialed fighter on this show, and they keep getting their asses kicked.
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She's a world champion but got submitted in her last loss haha. Credentials mean nothing and are deceiving in MMA. Viana is a world champ, got arm barred by a purple belt in Macedo in the first. Stephanie Egger competed in ADCC open weight against Gabie Garcia and survived. Got submitted in the first by Mayra Silva. Armbars from guard too, very basic and easy move to defend if you aren't a complete noob. In one of her losses she kept jumping down for a lose guillotine, amateur stuff. If her jits was world class she would finish that on the first attempt, not keep giving up top position.
 
Also boys, I did some digging, all of Siaamons fights are on Facebook. Just put his name on Google and go videos. Tape Index only has his debut. Looking to put out a breakdown video today. Also, the plan is to put out the UFC card super early in advance.
 
Parkins is the only viable underdog imo

Amanda=low opponent rating, average across the board, no chance.

Saiman= too green, weak mma circuit, Josh fought a long amateur before turning pro, looks more compose and bigger reach. Saiman throws lots of naked kicks. He's eating shots from guys like this Zwe Ngema ("Black Bull") | MMA Fighter Page | Tapology and still took him 2 rounds to finish.

Aguilar= sloppy punches , throws loopy shots while turning his head away, loses top control and gets taken down by low tiers. Ferreira, showed solid scrambles to his feet in DWCS and has that skinny lanky frame that makes him flexible enough to get off the ground and keep it standing, the standup is day and night better imo.

Flowers= He has a punchers chance, but i think if you only have a punchers chance, you don't have much of a chance at all. Flowers getting finished so many times by sub is enough for Ariman to exploit as he has used guillotines before. Flowers has a little wrestling but he's out of shape in most fights i've seen him in. Amiran's loss is more forgivable because it's against a good fighter who now competes in eagle fc. and it was a decision, if that guy cant finish Amiran, what chances does Flowers have when he gets finished by low skilled opponents?

Parkins is the only one who hit the right check marks, more experience in mma pro and amateur. Competed in kick boxing, has a decent guard defense, utilizes all his tools.. Neves has fought 90% Brazilian cab drivers, anyone can look like mike tyson against those guys. he has looked sloppy in his scrambles to his feet, and he doesn't throw punches like solid fighter , no real torque there, he just has natural punching power and is durable, but i would bet he has a shotty gas tank once past rnd 1. I see parkins putting an mma beating on him, wearing him down in the ground and getting a tko finish. not 100% like nothing else in life is. but he's the only dog here in this card that has a bite.
 
Stat_Collector said:
Parkins is the only viable underdog imo

Amanda=low opponent rating, average across the board, no chance.

Saiman= too green, weak mma circuit, Josh fought a long amateur before turning pro, looks more compose and bigger reach. Saiman throws lots of naked kicks. He's eating shots from guys like this Zwe Ngema ("Black Bull") | MMA Fighter Page | Tapology and still took him 2 rounds to finish.

Aguilar= sloppy punches , throws loopy shots while turning his head away, loses top control and gets taken down by low tiers. Ferreira, showed solid scrambles to his feet in DWCS and has that skinny lanky frame that makes him flexible enough to get off the ground and keep it standing, the standup is day and night better imo.

Flowers= He has a punchers chance, but i think if you only have a punchers chance, you don't have much of a chance at all. Flowers getting finished so many times by sub is enough for Ariman to exploit as he has used guillotines before. Flowers has a little wrestling but he's out of shape in most fights i've seen him in. Amiran's loss is more forgivable because it's against a good fighter who now competes in eagle fc. and it was a decision, if that guy cant finish Amiran, what chances does Flowers have when he gets finished by low skilled opponents?

Parkins is the only one who hit the right check marks, more experience in mma pro and amateur. Competed in kick boxing, has a decent guard defense, utilizes all his tools.. Neves has fought 90% Brazilian cab drivers, anyone can look like mike tyson against those guys. he has looked sloppy in his scrambles to his feet, and he doesn't throw punches like solid fighter , no real torque there, he just has natural punching power and is durable, but i would bet he has a shotty gas tank once past rnd 1. I see parkins putting an mma beating on him, wearing him down in the ground and getting a tko finish. not 100% like nothing else in life is. but he's the only dog here in this card that has a bite.
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I see Neves/Parkin the other way round tbh. I think it's going to look like a sanctioned murder.



I'm gonna take a dig at Saaiman at those odds. He is green but Wang Kim didn't really impress me against Jimenez and I think he's more style over substance. Saaiman had a tough outing against a more experience fighter in his recent title fight and although it wasn't easy he made the adjustments needed and got it done.

Agree on the other fights. Amiran is beatable, but by wrestling, I'm not sure Flowers has enough, Amiran is a killer on the feet.
 
Stat_Collector said:
Parkins is the only viable underdog imo

Amanda=low opponent rating, average across the board, no chance.

Saiman= too green, weak mma circuit, Josh fought a long amateur before turning pro, looks more compose and bigger reach. Saiman throws lots of naked kicks. He's eating shots from guys like this Zwe Ngema ("Black Bull") | MMA Fighter Page | Tapology and still took him 2 rounds to finish.

Aguilar= sloppy punches , throws loopy shots while turning his head away, loses top control and gets taken down by low tiers. Ferreira, showed solid scrambles to his feet in DWCS and has that skinny lanky frame that makes him flexible enough to get off the ground and keep it standing, the standup is day and night better imo.

Flowers= He has a punchers chance, but i think if you only have a punchers chance, you don't have much of a chance at all. Flowers getting finished so many times by sub is enough for Ariman to exploit as he has used guillotines before. Flowers has a little wrestling but he's out of shape in most fights i've seen him in. Amiran's loss is more forgivable because it's against a good fighter who now competes in eagle fc. and it was a decision, if that guy cant finish Amiran, what chances does Flowers have when he gets finished by low skilled opponents?

Parkins is the only one who hit the right check marks, more experience in mma pro and amateur. Competed in kick boxing, has a decent guard defense, utilizes all his tools.. Neves has fought 90% Brazilian cab drivers, anyone can look like mike tyson against those guys. he has looked sloppy in his scrambles to his feet, and he doesn't throw punches like solid fighter , no real torque there, he just has natural punching power and is durable, but i would bet he has a shotty gas tank once past rnd 1. I see parkins putting an mma beating on him, wearing him down in the ground and getting a tko finish. not 100% like nothing else in life is. but he's the only dog here in this card that has a bite.
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Parkins not having faced any credible fighter so far in MMA is a big deal though. Plenty of can crushers at HW struggle to put it together against their first decent opponent.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
I see Neves/Parkin the other way round tbh. I think it's going to look like a sanctioned murder.



I'm gonna take a dig at Saaiman at those odds. He is green but Wang Kim didn't really impress me against Jimenez and I think he's more style over substance. Saaiman had a tough outing against a more experience fighter in his recent title fight and although it wasn't easy he made the adjustments needed and got it done.

Agree on the other fights. Amiran is beatable, but by wrestling, I'm not sure Flowers has enough, Amiran is a killer on the feet.
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<Lmaoo>

it didn't look like a sanction murder in this fight, he got mounted by a 1-3 low tier fighter, his ground game is awful . time stamped


Parkins has trained with the likes of Paul Craig and Aspinall, has several tko gnp wins. its not like Parkin cant strike either.

Saaiman looks green to me, that guy he fought who is 0-4 lasted 8 mins 30 seconds, that is far too long for a can who losses his fights a lot quicker.

When Kim fights cans, he puts them out early within 1 round. i don't think Saaiman is in the point of his career to compete in the ufc. Kim has done the mileage , its not something you can get with just talent. Experince wins most of the time in lower level mma.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Parkins not having faced any credible fighter so far in MMA is a big deal though. Plenty of can crushers at HW struggle to put it together against their first decent opponent.
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neither has Neves. like i posted above, mounted by a tomato can is a massive red flag in my book.
 
Stat_Collector said:
<Lmaoo>

it didn't look like a sanction murder in this fight, he got mounted by a 1-3 low tier fighter, his ground game is awful . time stamped


Parkins has trained with the likes of Paul Craig and Aspinall, has several tko gnp wins. its not like Parkin cant strike either.

Saaiman looks green to me, that guy he fought who is 0-4 lasted 8 mins 30 seconds, that is far too long for a can who losses his fights a lot quicker.

When Kim fights cans, he puts them out early within 1 round. i don't think Saaiman is in the point of his career to compete in the ufc. Kim has done the mileage , its not something you can get with just talent. Experince wins most of the time in lower level mma.
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Neves was 19 at the time of that fight. At that age to 22 fighters improve a fuckload. His last opponent Andre Vieira was 5-0 with a couple of fighters with winning records on his record and Neves absolutely trashed him.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Neves was 19 at the time of that fight. At that age to 22 fighters improve a fuckload. His last opponent Andre Vieira was 5-0 with a couple of fighters with winning records on his record and Neves absolutely trashed him.
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i think you're relying for too much on record capping, i do the same, but sooner or later you need to acknowledge the tape and see he has bad ground game, 2020 was two years ago not 2 decades ago. if you think now he's suddenly going to have a chuck liddel takedown defense, not likely. he's 90% chance getting mounted by Parkins. Neither guy has fought anyone with a pulse, but im looking at the tape, and i see red flags. his cardio is not good either, his finish in that fight i posted consisted of him throwing head noogies.

you think his cardio is going to be any better when he has the same physique he did then? im not trying to sound harsh here but this is an easy dog pick.
 
Stat_Collector said:
i think you're relying for too much on record capping, i do the same, but sooner or later you need to acknowledge the tape and see he has bad ground game, 2020 was two years ago not 2 decades ago. if you think now he's suddenly going to have a chuck liddel takedown defense, not likely. he's 90% chance getting mounted by Parkins. Neither guy has fought anyone with a pulse, but im looking at the tape, and i see re flags. his cardio is not good either, his finish in that fight i posted consisted of him throwing head noogies.

you think his cardio is going to be any better when he has the same physique he did then. im not trying to sound harsh here but this is an easy dog pick.
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It's fine dude I'm not going to get offended in here. I think he's going to run through Parkin but if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I wouldn't play those odds at HW so I have no horse in the race.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
It's fine dude I'm not going to get offended in here. I think he's going to run through Parkin but if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I wouldn't play those odds at HW so I have no horse in the race.
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what gives you that hint? what is it in Parkin's defense and past fights did you see him get rocked before or bloodied up?

Do you think Parkins would not have knocked out all of Neves' opponents?
 
Stat_Collector said:
what gives you that hint? what is it in Parkin's defense and past fights did you see him get rocked before or bloodied up?

Do you think Parkins would not have knocked out all of Neves' opponents?
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I don't know if he'd have knocked out his last one, I thought he was a decent regional test for Neves going in. Sure he might have done but I don't think it'd necessarily be a walkover.
 
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